Oil prices expectations are struck with more firm predictions against the backdrop of tariff advertisements worn by US President Donald Trump. Companies and investors are concerned that the trade war and the decline in global growth are awaiting us.

On Thursday, Goldman Sachs reduced its expectations in December 2025 for Global, US Benchmarks Brant and WTI standards by $ 5 to $ 66 and $ 62 a barrel, respectively, because “the main risks on the negative side we have realized, which are the escalation of customs tariffs and OPEC+ somewhat higher.”

The bank also reduced its expectations for oil standards in 2025 and 2026, adding that “we no longer expect a scope of the price, because the fluctuation of prices is likely to remain high at the risk of higher recession.” S & P Global Markt Intelligence Intelligence expects to be in the worst scenario, the growth of global demand for oil demand can be reduced by 500,000 barrels per day.

For its part, Jpmorgan raised the chances of the global economy to 60 % for this year, increasing the previous 40 % expectations.

Therefore, the markets surprised when OPEC, which produces about 40 % of crude oil in the world-chose alongside its non-flood allies who form OPEC+-not only to move forward in its plans that have already been increased by oil, but also to increase oil production Almost three times the number is expected.

On Thursday, eight OPEC producers agreed to raise the production of joint crude oil by 411,000 barrels per day, which faster the frequency of their scheduled rise and the payment of oil prices. The group – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Sultanate – were widely implemented up to 140,000 barrels per day next day.

The news paid oil prices by 6 %.

Several factors support the oil -producing coalition decision. One of them is that the group ascends in the demand for oil later in the year, which puts it firmly in the minority as the future investor receptors and fears of global slowdown.

OPEC+ eight members of the production decision mentioned “the basics of the continuous health market and the expectations of the positive market” in them statement Thursday, saying that “this procedure will provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation.”

The statement added that “the gradual increases may stop or reverse according to the advanced market conditions.”

Another possible reason for the group’s step has another relationship: the man in the White House, which he called for a group of oil products during his first term in his position and the beginning of the second of the second, to increase prices for the Americans.

“First and foremost, this is partially about Trump’s appetite,” Saul Cavon, head of Energy Research at Mst Marquee, told CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Friday.

“Trump will pressure OPEC to reduce oil prices, which reduces global energy prices, to help compensate for the inflationary impact of his definitions.”

OPEC officials have denied that this step was taken to please Trump.

At the same time, since compliance is a major issue for OPEC+ – with excessive production of raw countries outside their shares, which complicates the group’s efforts to control the amount of supply it allows in the market – this step can be a way to enforce them, according to Helema Cruvelt, head of global commodity strategy and capital research research in RBC.

“We believe that the desire by the OPEC leadership to send a warning signal to Kazakhstan, Iraq, and even Russia about the cost of continuing production lies in the decision,” Croft wrote in a note published on Thursday. She referred to the war of oil prices in March 2020, when the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia immersed the market by offering tank oil prices and forced Russia to comply after Moscow initially refused to curb production to help the coalition stabilize prices. The price war caused the prices of Brent crude He decreased to $ 15 barrels.

Cavon said that production increases are also “an example of an increase in its market share,” adding that it “comes in the end at the expense of the United States [shale] Patch, “which is likely to be American producers not to tell them.

Nader Etim, editor -in -chief at Argus Media, said that Opec+ seems confident of the market that has turned into an angle in the coming months, assuming that the demand for oil will increase in the summer and tariff wars will be resolved in the coming months.

“These countries are very comfortable with $ 70 and $ 75 a barrel,” said Etiem.

What comes after that depends on the path of definitions and a possible commercial war. Analysts say that the decrease in the $ 60 domain may force the stop or even reflection in OPEC+ production plans – although it is likely to resist from countries such as Iraq and Kazakhstan, which has long been heading to increase their oil production for their revenues.

Itayim indicated that the group maintains flexibility in adapting its plans a month after a month.

“If things do not go the way they imagine, everything it takes, really, is a phone call.”