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Your guide to what the American elections mean 2024 for Washington and the world

When Donald Trump won the American elections last year, a consulting company called a “war room” to follow the important policies. “When there is a wealth of information, there is often a poverty of attention.” FT said. “The challenge facing corporate leaders is to give priority.”

Very true. This week, a wild vortex of ads: supposed A 25 % tariff On Europe in a terrible way Exploited metal deal With Ukraine, the shooting of federal workers. and so on.

This reflects the deliberate strategy of the Trump team “Driving the area” With striking news, to destabilize opponents. Consequently, what investors should ask is what is ignored in this dispersed vortex – because it seems very boring or complicated, and the headlines cannot be obtained.

Take the arc issue once from “reservation”. This term describes what happens when the president refuses to spend funds approved by Congress to obtain various plans, instead he keeps it or “puts it”.

Until recently, a few politicians, investors or voters were concerned about it. No wonder. like Julian Zelizer, Prisonstone historian, notice, This practice has been intermittently used, as presidents from Thomas Jefferson ranged to Harry Truman to John Kennedy, who carries small masses of military spending. But when Richard Nixon resigned, a ban on a ban was issued. Since then, Congress has used the final financial strength.

However, Trump said last year he He did not accept The 1974 Law. Therefore, when his team began to reduce costs in Duji, the spending review in January, the White House tested “reservation” by freezing some financing flows.

It was partial It was overturned by the courts. But this march can be accustomed to much larger, which may cause a constitutional battle or a tremor in the market. One of the legal researchers tells me: “It is a crisis in making it.” The reason is the financial budget process 2025 and 2026. This week, Mike Johnson, Speaker of the Republican Parliament, He passed the budget decision Participate in tax spending and tax discounts.

On paper, this looked like a semi -political miracle. After all, Johnson has a high-ranking majority, Democrats in Congress (almost) reject anything that Trump wants-and Republicans are divided between liberal technology (such as Elon Musk), and the Dhias of Maga (such as Steve Bannon) and old-style conservatives.

But in reality, Johnson’s “Triumph” was more than the material style, where the details of the granular budget should now be placed Before the deadline on March 14th. This will be very difficult, if not impossible.

Despite the strange that attracts attention, the team has found so far a A few billion dollars of “waste” to reduceApparently. At the same time, the debt is already $ 36 million – the rise – the annual deficit is about one dollar.

Thus, if Congress wants to meet Maga demands with debt discounts, the plan must reduce the advantages,/or military budget and/or impose higher taxes on the wealthy. The populists, like Bannon, In favor of the latter; The first liberal technology. While Scott Payette, Treasury Secretary, insists that high growth insists that high growth will link this semi -possible circle, which seems unlikely to step down to consumer confidence.

Until March 14 waving. The political betting site is like Shi It is assumed that a 56 percent opportunity to close the government – the difficulties that have increased since Johnson passed his bill. Yes, really.

Of course, this closure happened before. They always ended when Congress found a compromise. But this time it may be different: If the rigidity occurs, the Trump team is considering “reservation”, not only about this law but future budget plans.

It would raise legal and constitutional challenges. But Eric Titl, Maga Adviser, insists that Trump will win. “We live in a fairly unprecedented moment,” he Tell the Bannon radio program this week. “The central adherence to the reservation was not before the Supreme Court, and we believe it would prevail.”

If so, there are three traces. One of them is that Trump will become more than tyranny, and control American wallet chains. The second is that there will be more war between the Maga populists, the technicians and the Republican who love the constitution in ancient style. The third is that bond investors will need to rethink fiscal policy. Because while using financial risk analysis about Congress operations, they do not know how to pricing financial tyranny.

Investors may be surprised by pleasure. If Congress becomes powerless, it is possible that the authoritarian president will finally be able to produce an appropriate plan to reduce debt by Fiat, after years of delay. This is what Trump believes.

But a world of financial tyranny can be seriously volatile. With Trump, nothing can be excluded. Either way, cabinet investors need to identify “reservation”. It may make the drama “Dog” look just distraction from the real political war.

Gillian.tett@ft.com