Washington DC – The administration of US President Joe Biden said that it is taking a wait-and-see approach towards the nascent government in Syria, as diplomats in recent weeks held preliminary meetings with the head of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and the Syrian government. Truly a leaderAhmed Al-Sharaa, and the new Minister of Foreign Affairs, Asaad Al-Shaibani.

But since the rebels The overthrow of long-time President Bashar al-Assad In early December, the United States confirmed that it would continue to deploy its forces in northeastern Syria, where American personnel continue to support the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces as part of a decade-long anti-ISIS mission.

In fact, in December the Pentagon made an update Number of employees She said they were in the country, saying the number was actually 2,000, not the 900 that had been reported for years.

Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, described the update as a not-so-subtle message to various actors in Syria to take a cautious approach toward the SDF and the sprawling, economically important territory. The group controls the country’s future.

It also highlights how the United States, at least in the final days of the Biden administration before President-elect Donald Trump takes office on January 20, will seek to assert its influence in shaping a new Syria, in part, by having troops on the ground. .

“I think it was a signal to Turkey and to the Arab forces that they should not attack the Kurdish region,” Landis said, referring to the territory controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces, which includes a large Syrian Kurdish population.

“It was meant to draw a line that this is something that has to be negotiated, not something that can be worked out on the battlefield.”

On January 2, the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights also reported that the US military appeared to be strengthening its bases in the region, including, according to Observatory sources, building a new base in Ain al-Arab. However, a Pentagon spokesman on Friday denied there were plans to establish “some type of base or presence” there.

So, what is behind the plans for the continued American presence in Syria after the fall of Assad?

Stated strategic priorities

The Biden administration’s public messaging has emphasized a specific priority in maintaining a troop presence in Syria: Operation against ISIS (ISIS).Which was first launched in 2014 during the era of US President Barack Obama.

Speaking to reporters on December 19, Pentagon spokesman Pat Rader also emphasized that “there are no plans to stop the mission to defeat ISIS.” Ryder said the increase in troop numbers is intended to respond to “emerging mission requirements associated with the mission to defeat ISIS.”

Mohamed Saleh, a senior fellow at the Philadelphia-based Foreign Policy Research Institute, said there are indeed many undeclared strategic interests behind the deployment of US forces. However, the continuing threat of a resurgence of ISIS should not be dismissed.

While ISIS was defeated territorially in 2017, the Pentagon said in July that ISIS fighters launched 153 attacks in Iraq and Syria in the first six months of the year, a rate double what it was in 2023.

With the SDF currently overseeing prisons holding thousands of ISIS prisoners, a continued US presence could serve as a deterrent to clashes with Turkish-backed groups that could deteriorate the security situation.

“[Fighting ISIL] “It is still a goal of great importance,” Saleh told Al Jazeera. It has been a largely peaceful transition so far, but the lack of a central authority also creates very significant opportunities for chaos that a group like ISIS can exploit. “They are very skilled at adapting to the circumstances they are dealing with and following this gradual path back, as they did in Iraq in 2010 and 2011.”

For its part, Türkiye, which has supported the rebel offensive led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham as well as the Syrian National Army, has proposed a more comprehensive takeover of the anti-ISIS mission.

Türkiye considers the People’s Defense Units (YPG), which make up the bulk of SDF fighters, a “terrorist organization.” Meanwhile, the Syrian wing of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is considered a “terrorist” group by both Ankara and Washington.

However, Türkiye’s opposition to the SDF has long put it at odds with its NATO ally, the United States, over the latter’s support for the group.

“bargaining chips”

The Syrian Democratic Forces currently control a large area of ​​northeastern Syria, representing nearly a third of the country’s total territory. The lands it controls contain about 70 percent of Syrian oil and gas fields.

In association with relief from Crushing US and foreign sanctions Imposed on areas controlled by Assad during his rule, control of those oil fields will be essential for Syria’s future economic development. Al-Sharaa and Al-Shaibani made this development the main focus of their early communications with the media and foreign envoys.

“Syria needs significant foreign investment in the oil industry in order to restart, renew and renew it,” Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies, told Al Jazeera. “Only the Syrian government can do that because the United States does not have the authority to sign long-term leases with foreign governments. Neither can the Kurds, because they are not a recognized government. Those wells belong to the Syrian government.”

The presence of US forces in Syria is intended, in part, to ensure that fossil fuel fields remain out of the hands of ISIS, which briefly controlled them, and the Assad government.

In 2019, then-US President Trump Directly directed This goal, saying during a press conference at the White House next to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that the United States “left its forces behind only for the sake of oil.” A Pentagon official later said that “securing the oil fields is a secondary mission” to defeating ISIS in Syria.

Landis said that regardless of US motives for securing the fields in recent years, their release would be a major pressure point in ongoing negotiations.

“Sanctions and oil are great bargaining chips,” Landis said.

These negotiations will include whether the Syrian Democratic Forces have a role in the new government. In an early sign of cooperation… Al-Sharaa also met with representatives of the Syrian Democratic Forces Last week.

Possible pressure from Israel

Washington could also seek to influence the new Syrian government’s tact with US enemies such as Iran and its regional allies, most notably Israel, which Seizing Syrian territory Outside the occupied Golan Heights since the beginning of last December.

“All of this represents an opportunity to reshape or restructure the regional order in a way that is more consistent with US priorities,” said Saleh of the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

While the opposition takeover has largely destroyed Iranian influence in Syria and cut off Tehran’s supply lines to Lebanon’s Hezbollah, it has also opened the door to increased influence by Turkey, which has taken a hard line against Israel amid the war in Gaza.

In return, Israel may intensify increasing pressure on its “tough” ally Washington to extract guarantees from Türkiye, according to Landis.

“Israel, which is clearly America’s closest ally in the region, is very concerned that it is merely trading an Iranian proxy for a Turkish one,” Landis said. “So, Israel’s interests would be to keep Syria as weak, divided, and poor as possible, and may actually try to put some pressure on the United States to remain in Syria with its forces.”

But he noted that this pressure may conflict with American interests, especially as regional Arab allies increasingly embrace Sharia. While the American presence may be tolerated in the near future, when the Syrian government’s newly formed army is ill-equipped to respond to ISIS, there will be an expiration date.

“They can only drag this out for so long before it alienates everyone,” Landis said. “There are many reasons why America does not want to destroy efforts to unify Syria.”

The future and Trump

Then there is the issue of the upcoming Trump administration, and what the second term of a president known for his fluctuations in foreign policy will hold for Syria.

Trump commented moderately on the situation. In his qualities Mysterious styleHe wrote on his platform TruthSocial in early December that Syria is “not our battle.”

This statement appears to be in line with Trump’s “America First” pledges to end US military intervention abroad, although his previous efforts to withdraw US forces from Syria faltered amid strong opposition from within his administration.

Looking at the appointees this time, Trump appears to be on a similar collision course, according to Saleh.

“Figures like National Security Advisor, Congressman Mike Waltz, and Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio have stood strongly and loudly against Turkish military operations against the Syrian Democratic Forces… and that the United States needs to maintain a military deployment inside Syria.” He said.

“All of this could greatly conflict with Trump’s personal wishes and desires.”

To make matters worse, Trump in December appeared to praise Ankara for its support of the rebel overthrow of Assad, while calling the ouster an “unfriendly takeover” by Turkey.

Some observers have speculated that Trump may be more open to handing over anti-ISIS operations than his predecessor, although no clear position has emerged.

Saleh said: “I do not expect that Syrian policy has been decided yet.”

“I think there will be some conflict within the next administration when it comes to policy toward Syria.”