It appears that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has finally relented. After more than a year of refusing to agree to end the war in Gaza, he is now seeking to reach an agreement cease-fire And this – the brokers insist – will do just that.

Netanyahu government It met on Friday to approve the dealwhich will include the exchange of prisoners and prisoners, the gradual Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the end of the devastating war launched by Israel on the Palestinian Strip.

The implementation is scheduled to begin on Sunday, when recriminations against the Israeli Prime Minister are likely to begin as he faces opposition from within his own government. That opposition echoes the same lines he has long insisted on: There is no end to the war without the destruction of Hamas.

Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who proudly declared that he had used his power to prevent any prisoner release agreement over the past year, declared the current deal on the table “terrible” and insisted that he and his party would Leave the government If it is implemented.

But that will not be enough to topple Netanyahu’s government. Ben Gvir needs the support of his colleague, the far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, and his Religious Zionism Party. Smotrich seems ready to move forward with the deal, but only in its first phase, which will see the release of some Israeli prisoners. Afterwards, Religious Zionism said its members would resign from the government unless the war was launched on Gaza – which has so far killed more than 100,000 people. 46,700 Palestinians – continues.

The Trump factor

Despite these threats to his rule, Netanyahu appears to be moving forward. The planned start of the ceasefire comes one day before the deadline set by US President-elect Donald Trump, which will be his inauguration day on Monday.

The Israeli far right saw Trump – a pro-Israel Republican who plans to bring several politicians with strong ties to the Israeli settlement movement into his administration – as their man, a president who would look the other way while the movement fulfilled its dream of building illegal settlements in Gaza and displacing their residents. .

At the moment, that does not appear to be the case, and Trump has emphasized that he wants to end the war before he takes office.

While that may be a negative for Netanyahu on first reading, perceptions that the Trump administration may have forced his hand could be politically advantageous for the Israeli prime minister in the short term, giving him more room to maneuver in the future.

“This may be more transactional than many assume,” said Merav Zonszin, an expert on Israel at the International Crisis Group, suggesting that the hand of Israel’s longest-serving leader may not be imposed so easily.

“By agreeing now, Netanyahu may have bought himself greater freedom to act in the West Bank and to determine any future agreed upon for Gaza,” she said, referring to Israeli far-right plans to annex the occupied Palestinian territories, which are widespread. With Israeli settlements, which are illegal under international law.

He added: “Everyone knew that at some point, prisoners would have to be exchanged. This has always been the case. For many people, this is not even a security issue. “What is the security issue for many is who will govern in Gaza,” she said, referring to the third phase of the ceasefire agreement, before moving on to point out that by agreeing to a ceasefire now, Netanyahu could be more certain of Hassan. American intention when dealing with Gaza in the future

Political reality

Netanyahu has been closely associated with far-right members of his government since returning to office at the end of 2022. It was Ben Gvir and Smotrich who supported Netanyahu when others on the Israeli right abandoned him over his ongoing corruption trial. And his unpopularity among large sectors of the Israeli public.

Without them, he would not have been able to form a governing coalition, and without them, the thinking goes, his government would have fallen, and with it any chance of granting himself immunity from prosecution.

But Netanyahu, long known as the great survivor, appears to have another plan for survival.

The majority of people in his government support the ceasefire, including the important ultra-Orthodox religious bloc. The opposition also said it was ready to give Netanyahu a safety net to pass the agreement.

The prime minister has always had a good sense of the feelings of the Israeli public, and analysts say he may have realized that the public mood is now more open to a deal that would see prisoners returned home and an end to the conflict. War.

It is useful for Israel to be able to say that it has rebuilt its deterrence and that its enemies – including Hamas, the Lebanese Hezbollah group, and, most importantly, Iran – have been hit hard.

But Israeli political scientist Uri Goldberg said those geopolitical victories have given way to a sense of acceptance and resignation that the war needs to end.

“Nobody really celebrates,” Goldberg said. “Everyone knew this was bound to come. Israelis have been living in a kind of daze for the past 15 months. Life has become difficult for many Israelis, not as difficult as we made it for the Palestinians, but difficult.”

Goldberg added: “For 15 months, we were told that we were on the verge of achieving absolute victory, but we achieved nothing but destruction and killing.” “We are tired. Don’t get me wrong – a lot of people would still destroy Gaza if you guaranteed security – but we are doing our best, and we still don’t have it.”

He continued: “The Israelis are exhausted.” “If we’re lucky, those first six weeks will be enough to develop some momentum toward a settlement,” he added.

Cost calculation

Therefore, Netanyahu may be able to capitalize on public sentiment and even present himself as the one who ended the war and achieved several strategic goals before any new elections, earning himself another period of political execution.

But for Israeli society, there is a cost to waging war on a large scale Rights groups It has been described as genocide along with the prisoners being held in Gaza, the soldiers returning from Gaza and Lebanon in coffins, and Israel’s increasing international isolation.

Indeed, for many observers, Israel emerging from the carnage in Gaza is a far cry from the state that existed before the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023. Which claimed the lives of 1,139 people.

During the ensuing war, the far right in Israeli politics staked its claim to the center, while the reach of the security services expanded beyond the limits that many had previously thought possible.

in May, A paper produced by two well-known Israeli academicsEugene Kandel and Ron Tzur suggested that, given the divisions resulting from the country’s war on Gaza and the Netanyahu government’s attempts to disengage from itself, Judicial oversight“There is a high probability that Israel will not be able to exist as a sovereign Jewish state in the coming decades.”

“There is certainly moral corruption inside Israel,” said Dr. Guy Shalev, executive director of Physicians for Human Rights in Israel, which has documented the denial of medical aid and torture of Palestinians.

“The devaluation of human life, especially Palestinian life, which had little value before the war, was tragic,” Shalev said.

“The loss of life is of this magnitude and the government’s disregard for people’s lives [Israeli] “The hostages have eroded what we call in Hebrew, ‘arvot hadaydit,’ which refers to the sense of mutual responsibility that binds all Jews,” Shalev added. “I fundamentally believe that if the lives of Palestinians do not matter, then ultimately the lives of all people will matter less.”