The popular narration between federal reserve policy makers these days is that the policy is “in a good position” to adapt to any upward or negative risks. However, it may be accurate to say that politics is stuck in the situation.

With an abundance of unknown people in the economy and Washington halls, the only equipment that the central bank can really have these days is neutral because it begins what could be a long wait for what is already before us.

“In recent weeks, we have not only heard enthusiasm – especially from banks, about potential transformations in tax and organizational policies – but also widespread fears of future trade and immigration policy,” said Rafael Postic in Atlanta Bustic. Blog post. “These crossed currents are still more complicated in policy -making.”

Postek’s comments came during an active week of what is known in Wall Street as “Fedspeak”, or gossip that occurs between political meetings of the chair Jerome PowellReferees of the central bank and regional presidents.

Officials who spoke frequently describe politics as “in a good position”-the language has now become an essential element in post-compensation phrases. But increasingly, they express caution against the fluctuations coming from President Donald Trump Agenda trade and aggressive economyAs well as other factors that can affect politics.

“Uncertainty” is an increasingly common theme. In fact, the title Bustic entitled “Blog” on Thursday “does not call for uncertainty to be careful and humble in policy -making.” One day before, the Federal Federal Market Committee set prices Minutes have been released From the January 28-29 meeting, with dozens of references to the uncertain climate in Document.

The minutes specifically cited “high uncertainty about the range, timing and potential economic effects of potential changes on commercial, immigration, financial and organizational policies.”

Factors of uncertainty in taking the decision of the Federal Reserve in two ways: Impact on Employment imageThat was relatively stable, inflation, which It has been diluted but it can rise again Taking into account consumers and business leaders about a tariff for prices.

The Federal Reserve targets inflation by 2 %, which has been the goal that has been far to last for four years.

“At the present time, I see the risk of inflation remains higher than the goal as I was granted in the upward direction,” Saint -Luis Alberto Moussel’s president told reporters on Thursday. “My foundation scenario is the scenario where inflation continues about 2 %, which provides monetary policy remains modestly restricted, and it will take time. The scenario, not the baseline scenario, but I am excluding it.”

The worker in Musalem’s suspension is that the policy corresponds to “modest restriction”, a place that is considered the current level of the FBI’s funds between 4.25 % -4.5 %. Postek was slightly less clear in feeling the need to maintain rates, but he stressed that “this is not a time for contentment” and noted that “additional threats to price stability may appear.”

The head of the Federal Reserve at Chicago Austan Golsby, who is believed to be among the most honest FOMC members when it comes to inflation, was more measured in his evaluation of the definitions and did not provide the comment on a separate appearance, including one in CNBC, about the place he believes should be It is believed that his rates go.

“If you are only thinking about the customs tariff, this depends on the number of countries that will be applied to, and how much size, and the more it seems to be a shock of the size of the coffee, the more tense, the more it should be,” said Goolsbee.

On a wider scale, though, January minutes indicated that the Federal Reserve has been greatly harmonious with potential shocks and is not interested in testing water with any other interest rates. The meeting summary clearly noted that the committee members want “additional progress in inflation before making additional adjustments on the target of the federal funds rate.”

There is also more than just tariffs and anxiety.

The minutes were characterized by risks to financial stability as “noticeable”, specifically in the field of leverage and long -term debt level that banks keep.

Prisoner Mark Zandy – not usually worries – said in a discussion episode presented by Peter J. Peterson is worried about the risks that reach the American bond market of $ 46.2 trillion.

“In my view, the biggest risks are that we see a major sale in the bond market,” said Zandy, the chief economist in Moody’s Analytics. “The bond market feels incredibly quiet for me. Plums are broken. The basic merchants do not keep pace with the existing debt amount.”

“There are a lot of things that combine, I think there is a very big threat at some point over the next 12 months. We see a major sale in the bond market,” he added.

He said in this climate, there is a little opportunity to reduce the federal reserve to reduce prices – although markets are pricing in the possibility of a percentage of percentage at the end of the year.

Zandy said that this thinking of wishing to consider the customs tariff and other unintended suspended at the head of the Federal Reserve.

“I do not see the Federal Reserve Reducing interest rates here so that you feel better about inflation,” he said. “The economy came in 2025 in a very good place. It seems that it works well.