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A decline in oil prices recently, motivated by the trade war, Donald Trump, began to exhaust the Vladimir Putin War Fund.

Moscow budget – about a third of it comes from oil Gas – may be 2.5 percent less than expected in 2025 if crude prices remain at the current levels. This would force the Kremlin to increase borrowing, reduce non -military spending or withdraw its remaining reserves.

The average price of raw Urals, the main row in Russia, has decreased to the lowest level in almost two years, after the US presidential advertisements and an unexpected movement by the OPEC+ coalition to enhance production.

Urals was trading at about $ 50 a barrel as of Thursday, according to the ARGUS reporting agency. Russia planned its budget for 2025 based on Urals at $ 69.70 a barrel.

It adds low price to pressure on Russian economyWhich is expected to slow down this year after the war -related spending is fed. Moscow has already used some of the sovereign wealth fund to support the economy after the repercussions of Putin’s extensive invasion of Ukraine, and the part that can be accessed from these funds is dwindling.

In a rare recognition of economic uncertainty, Russian officials expressed their concerns about the low oil prices.

“This indicator is very important for us in terms of budget revenues … the situation is very volatile, tense and emotionally accused,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters earlier this week.

This transformation also shows how Trump’s introductory war indirectly hurts me, despite the recent initiatives of the US President to Moscow and promised to revive economic relations as part of negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Oil has still decreased this week, although Wednesday’s announcement of a temporary stop of 90 days to the sweeping tariff program.

“If commercial wars continue, it usually leads to a global economic slowdown and perhaps low demand for our energy exports.”.

If oil prices are approaching the current levels, Russia may lose about a trillion rubles this year, equivalent to 2.5 percent of the expected budget revenues, according to the chief economist in T-Peoplesments Sofya Dinets. This means that the growth of GDP is 0.5 percentage points.

However, it will take several months to reduce oil prices to feed budget revenues, according to the Russian experts at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

The Russian economy is already working at full capacity, as it is expected to slow down the government spending to the war to a large extent. Official expectations indicate a 1-2.5 percent expansion in 2025, which decreased from about 4 percent over the past two years.

This makes it unlikely that the state will compensate for a decrease in oil revenues with money from non -energy sources.

Since Putin’s extensive invasion of Ukraine has dragged to its fourth year, the government’s ability to expand the economy is dwindling.

Since 2020, the liquid part of the Russian sovereign wealth fund-known as the National Social Welfare Fund-has decreased by two-thirds. If it is used to cover a wide budget deficit, it may not last beyond the end of the year, according to Benjamin Hellenstock, head of the macroeconomic research and strategy at the Kiev College Institute for Economics.

“If the system can do anything about it, regardless of the painful discounts to non -war expenditures, it said.”

About 340 billion dollars in the Central Bank reserves remain also frozen under Western sanctions, which limits the maneuvering room sharply.

As the Social Welfare Fund decreases, Moscow may be forced to reduce spending, which will serve as a transformation of wartime increases. Economists warn that any discounts are likely to fall into the areas of non -military budget, such as social spending.

If the price of oil stabilizes at a very low level, Russia is likely to have to impose taxes on export companies to make up for some revenue, according to Olig Cosmin, the chief economist in Renaissance Capital. He added: “After adjusting taxes and debt financing, Russia will have to consider spending discounts – which also remains an option but beyond the” plan “,” plan “or” “Plan B”, he added.

Moscow can also try to increase debt on international markets, with a general debt burden for less than 30 percent of GDP, a low level according to international standards. But for many foreign investors, Russian bonds remain toxic.

At home, banks focused on lending to the private sector and did not show great interest in a funding deficit, said Hildstock, who expected dangerous restrictions on the Russian economy but not a sudden collapse.

“All this is not great for the budget, but not catastrophic,” he said.