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Analysts have warned that China and the United States renew a full trade war unless the largest economists could defuse the conflict before the Chinese customs duties enter $ 14 billion in US exports on Monday.

President Donald Trump last week An additional tariff of 10 percent revealed On Chinese goods to force Beijing to make more effort to address exports related to Fntanil to the United States and Mexico and threatened more if China has avenge.

When the duties of the United States entered the valid after three days, Beijing returned immediatelyHe announced additional duties from 10 to 15 percent on US energy exports and agricultural equipment. China’s duties are scheduled to enter China on Monday.

“This could be just the beginning of this stage of Trade warChina Yanchen, an expert at the China Center for International Economic Experiences, said. “This can become a very bad situation.”

Some analysts expected the United States and China to have talks to avoid major hostilities. Trump initially said he expected to speak to President Xi Jinping, but after China’s revenge, he said he was “not rushing” and the definitions were “hole” with “very large” measures coming.

When asked if the Trump team was participating with China in the same way it did with Canada and Mexico, which was subject to higher definitions before Trump Give them a one -month restA White House official said that the United States “is in constant contact with our counterparts, whether in Beijing or in Washington.”

A spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington said there has been no “new development” since China announced a retaliatory tariff.

Beijing experts said that Trump shock tactics, which aim to force something to reach an agreement quickly, may have been reversed. The US President presented only two days between advertising and implementing definitions – a timetable that may have been unacceptable to XI.

“China does not want a deal like this,” said Wi Wei, a researcher at the Cass Institute of the Chinese government of American studies. “You must have equal conversations and equal agreement, and not the matter in which you first put a high tariff on me, then say that we have to hold a deal.”

He said that the American tactics had echoes of a Chinese expression.Cheng Xia Zahi Meng “ – Dealing with your enemy under coercion when it is in your castle gates.

But analysts noticed that the limited range of China’s revenge – including Investigations to combat monopoly In Google and Nvidia, they reached a narrower group of goods compared to American fees – a proposed space for negotiations.

Trump administration officials have confirmed that the US President wanted China to invoke the flow of fentanel, which is fatal philosophys that have become the leading killer of Americans between the ages of 18 and 45 years.

But the experts in Beijing said that the talks had stopped because Trump was calling for cooperation on other fronts, such as pressure on Russia because of its invasion of Ukraine and / or the waiver of the short video platform He is the American buyer..

“Ventanil is an issue that can be easily addressed-China has already collaborated with the American side in this,” said John Gong, a professor at the University of International Business and Economics. “So Trump may want something more they cannot talk about publicly.”

Trump said on Friday that he will reveal a “mutual tariff” for countries next week, but he has not provided any information about the countries that will be targeted. The White House late Friday, temporarily stopped called The minimum exemption On the customs duties for low -cost charges from China, which provided a blessing to companies like Shin and Timo.

Windy Kotler, a trade expert and vice president at the Asia Association Policy Institute, said that unlike Canada and Mexico, China will play a longer game.

“Beijing is likely to take the approach to waiting and seeing before considering participation, including more certainty about whether it will be more affected by additional, sectoral or global definitions,” Kotler said.

Chinese experts said it would be difficult for Beijing to reach a “major deal” in a short deadline, especially on thorny topics such as the war in Ukraine, which China accused of helping Russia.

Several experts at the University of California, California, San Diego at the Foreign Relations Forum in China, said that Beijing was more concerned about the regulations for exporting American technology than the customs tariff.

China also Better preparation Gong said that tolerance with definitions this time. Exports to the United States accounted for 15 percent of the total Chinese trade last year, a smaller share of what it was in the past.

“This was the case,” Gong said. . . Definitions are not a deadly weapon, as Washington imagined. “

But some economists believe that the full force of Trump’s threatening definitions – such as the 60 percent tax that was proposed during the presidential campaign – will negatively affect the Chinese economy.

Hui Chan, the chief economist in China in Goldman Sachs, estimated that every increase in every 20 percentage points in the US tariff will expel 0.7 percentage of GDP growth in China.

Beijing can compensate for part of this strike With the low value of the currencyShe said that consumer motivation packages and other measures, but it may still absorb about 0.2 percentage points for local product.