Russia claimed this week to have captured the resource-rich town of Korakhov in eastern Ukraine, as its forces advance into the region after nearly three years of war.

Even when Ukraine fired A New attack In the Russian city of Kursk, which shocked residents, Russian forces continued to make slow gains in eastern Ukraine. It appears that this war of attrition has negatively affected the morale of the Ukrainian forces facing it Workforce conflicts In the face of continuing attacks from Russia.

Now, startling new figures point to a sharp escalation in the costs that war imposes on both sides in Europe’s biggest conflict since World War II. Experts say Russia seized Ukrainian territory twice the size of Mauritius in 2024. But how many soldiers did it lose in the process?

How much Ukrainian territory will Russia seize in 2024?

Russian forces captured 4,168 square kilometers (1,609 square miles) of Ukrainian territory in 2024, according to geographic evidence compiled by the Washington, D.C.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

This is twice the area of ​​the Indian Ocean country of Mauritius, and five times the area of ​​New York City.

Russia’s territorial gains in 2024 largely involve fields and small settlements in Ukraine, apart from territory it reclaims from Ukraine in Kursk, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

In addition, Russia acquired Avdiivka, Seledov, Vohldar, and Kurakhov, four medium-sized settlements, the Institute for the Study of War reported.

How many soldiers did Russia lose? What does Ukraine say?

As of December 30, 2024, 427,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in the 2024 war, according to the Supreme Commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Colonel-General Oleksandr Sirsky.

In a statement published on January 2, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry estimated Russia’s losses last year at 430,790 soldiers.

Based on the latest figure, Russian losses in 2024 amount to an average of 1,180 per day, and about 103 losses per square kilometre.

According to Ukraine, Russian losses increased by the end of the year. The Ministry of Defense said that the highest losses came in November, when losses amounted to 45,720, and in December, when losses amounted to 48,670. It is unclear how many of these Russian soldiers were killed and how many were injured and thus removed from the battlefield.

How many soldiers did Russia lose? What others say

According to the independent Russian website Mediazona, at least 31,481 Russian soldiers have been confirmed dead between January 1, 2024 and December 17, 2024.

Mediazona uses open source research to compile the names of dead Russian soldiers, verifying information through obituaries, posts by relatives, local authority statements and other public reports.

The Mediazona website says that the numbers for 2024 are “preliminary conclusions,” noting that “it appears that 2024 will become the bloodiest year of the war. While this cannot be proven conclusively yet, as casualty data appears with a significant delay.”

Al Jazeera was unable to independently verify these numbers.

“It seems likely that Russian deaths exceed 100,000 [range]Timothy Ash, associate fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House, a London-based think tank, told Al Jazeera.

However, in an interview with the French newspaper Le Monde, published on December 17, Ukrainian commander Serskyy said that the number of Russian troops in Ukraine also appeared to be constantly increasing.

Oleg Ignatov, a senior analyst at Crisis Group, said comments like Sirsky’s raise questions – how will Russian troop numbers in Ukraine increase if Moscow suffers such devastating losses?

“We don’t know if [this is because] The Russian recruitment model is good, or there is not so much [Russian] Victims [as is claimed]He said.

Why is it so difficult to verify the death toll?

This is partly because these numbers represent enormous propaganda value for both sides.

“There is a war of narratives on both sides. Both sides are using numbers to try to prove their success on the ground and undermine the other side. These narratives are part of the war,” Ignatov told Al Jazeera.

On December 8, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced in a post on the Telegram app that 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers had died on the battlefield since the start of the war in February 2022. The last time he announced the death toll for Ukrainian soldiers was in February 2024, when he said that 31 thousand Ukrainian soldiers were killed. This means that 12,000 Ukrainian soldiers died on the battlefield over the course of about 10 months in 2024.

However, neither Russia nor Ukraine regularly publish statistics on the number of soldiers lost in the war.

This is because they want to avoid giving the other party an idea of ​​the effectiveness of their military operations, says Marina Meron, a researcher in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, Al Jazeera said In October.

This is not an uncommon strategy in wartime: During World War II, for example, each side reported its own losses by half and exaggerated the enemy’s losses by two to three times, Meron said.

There are other factors as well. The death of a soldier is confirmed only after the body is found, after which the relevant Ministry of Defense sends a death notification to the family.

Meron told Al Jazeera in October that if the government does not officially accept the death of a soldier, it avoids the need to pay money to the families of the deceased.

Is the number of Russian deaths record?

Regardless of the exact number of Russian soldiers who lost their lives in the war, especially in 2024, experts unanimously conclude that Russia’s casualty figures are record high – the highest since World War II. During World War II, an estimated 8.7 million Soviet military personnel were killed – the highest number ever for any country. Of the fifteen Soviet republics, Russia lost the most soldiers – an estimated 6.7 million soldiers.

In the Soviet-Afghan war, which lasted 10 years, the Soviet army suffered about 15,000 casualties. During the Vietnam War, which lasted 20 years, the US Army lost 58,220 soldiers.

“Russian losses in Ukraine appear to double that number,” Ash said.

“The impact on Russian society will be felt for years to come. Think about the human cost and then healthcare and the economic cost of that on the workforce. This “partly explains Russia’s current tight labor markets and high wage price inflation,” Ash added.

“Russia already had a terrible demographic mix and this war made that much worse.”

What about regional gains in 2024? Was it important?

Experts say that the territorial gains made by Russia and Ukraine are of limited strategic importance for either country.

“Ukraine can survive and thrive economically without the territories currently occupied by Russia, but what is important here is security for the rest of Ukraine. That is why peace terms are so important for Ukraine,” Ash said.

He added: “For Russia, the seized territories have little positive impact on the economic or strategic level.”

In fact, Ashe said that the occupied Ukrainian territories “would be a huge burden on the Russian economy to finance reconstruction.”

He added: “This is happening at a time when the Russian economy is suffering from a lack of resources due to sanctions.”

Ignatov added that the annexation of territory by either side was not central to the war. Instead, “it is a war of attrition – casualties, materiel, and infrastructure are what matter.”

He added that neither party seems “interested in a ceasefire yet.” With its manpower losses mounting, Ignatov suggested Moscow could face a challenge in 2025. “We don’t know how sustainable the Russian conscription model is and we don’t know whether Russia will have to mobilize this year,” he said.