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The author is the author of many books in the city Wall Street

“It is busy doing anything, work throughout the day.” Although it is known as a banking crane, the 1949 Bing Crosby’s Bing Crosby standard was good for retail banks in the United Kingdom last year. By avoiding major errors, riding the interest rate cycle and working hard for what they know better, the three major banks listed in the high streets, LLOYDS, Barclays, and NatWest, all of which were reported about strong annual results, are more than 10 billion pounds for shareholders in the form of stock profits and stocks for re -purchasing stocks.

Stock prices have risen for the three banks, partially closed an embarrassing discount on the book value, reduced the cost of capital and reducing weakness on activists.

“Nothing”, of course, reduces the difficulty of managing the bank. These are companies of unusual complexity. The average annual reports of the three major banks in the United Kingdom is more than 400 pages, each with an amazing set of interlocking financial tools that cover millions of digital and face transactions. The possibility of an error, human or otherwise, enormous. Employees incentives are high, transparency is low and industry culture, let’s only say, running.

Mobility in this is an achievement in itself, and as intermittent history appears in the industry, it cannot be considered a matter of it. Three chants, then, for a good year closed safely.

But there is no time to contentment. Last year, the foundation prices in the UK over a 5 percent sweet spot hovered, resulting in easy clear choices – the difference between the benefits that were received on the loans and the rate paid to deposits – which are presented by derivatives with low risk. There is the danger. Amid the investor’s praise, the temptation may be that the councils believe that they are geniuses and forgot that the work environment has done a lot of heavy lifting.

Arrogance is not exactly rare in banking services. In 2006, against the background of the conditions of prosperity, HBOS and Northeternal Rock have grown their share in the mortgage market, where they exceeded their public budgets. The following year, I convinced that the scale is the key to global success, and entered Barclays and RBS a strong battle for Dutch Bank ABN Amro. Replacing local self -confidence subject to clear analysis. The consequences, as we know now, were disastrous.

What are the risks of the outbreak of the meeting of the meeting hall? The trigger points are never identical, but there are three things to search for.

First, self -wounds. British banks are exposed. Barclays The volatile history It means that in 2022, he was forced to an expensive settlement when she had to admit excessive issuance of organized securities. In 2023, the CEO of Natewist was then Lady Alison Rose Take off After naming Nigel Farage in a conversation about Debanking. Car loans Sales It may currently be proven through expensive UK courts, especially for the Lloyds market.

Second, low credit standards. Low credit disabilities was a factor in the results of 2024 and although there was no immediate possibility of a sharp increase, this should not be considered a foregone. Geopolitical volatility is a clear threat, but also the government’s preparation to provide more to support the growth strategy. Banking services are the opposite of most industries, as they absorb more size general expenditures and increase margins. In banking services, this usually means more lending and more risks.

High street banks are no longer participating in the wars of their market share, such as those between Barclays and Natest in the 1990s. The number one by the solutions of ’91 “announced the first and” in the stool with “92” solutions, he answered the latter’s intelligence. But government pressure to finance growth, for example in housing, carries similar risks.

Third, diversification. After creating a credibility platform, diversification through acquisition is now a choice, at least.

However, with the expansion of their basic banking works in the UK recently through medium-sized acquisitions-Barclays and NatWest businesses Tesco’s and Sainsbury Banking, respectively, buying another large division-like bank similar to excessive concentration.

Growth to less organized activities, for example private banking services and asset management, may be more interesting. But although no work can stand with that, adding a new activity requires a group of different skills and complex technology that transports integration risks and management management.

The councils like to do things and the CEO like to leave the legacies. But all three UK street banks already have plans that clearly show organic growth. They should adhere to them and follow the next line of classic Crosby by “trying to find a lot of things for not doing.”