Donald Trump has warned that he will impose higher tariffs and additional sanctions on Russia if Vladimir Putin fails to end the war in Ukraine.

He wrote on his social media platform Truth Social that by pushing for a settlement of the war he was doing a “very big favor” to Russia and its president.

Trump had previously said that he would negotiate a settlement to the large-scale Russian invasion that began in February 2022, in one day.

Russia has not yet responded to these statements, but senior officials have said in recent days that there is a small opportunity for Moscow to deal with the new American administration.

Putin has repeatedly said he is ready to negotiate an end to the war, which first began in 2014, but Ukraine must accept the reality of Russia’s territorial gains, which currently amount to about 20% of its territory. He also refuses to allow Ukraine to join NATO, the military alliance of Western countries.

Kiev does not want to give up its territory, although President Volodymyr Zelensky has acknowledged that he may have to temporarily give up some of the currently occupied territory.

Trump said at a press conference on Tuesday that he would talk to Putin “very soon” and “it seems likely” that he would implement more sanctions if the Russian leader did not come to the table.

But he went further in his post on Truth Social the next day, writing: “I will be doing a big favor to Russia, whose economy is collapsing, and to President Putin.”

“Settle down now, and stop this ridiculous war! It’s only going to get worse. If we don’t make a ‘deal’ and soon, I have no other choice but to impose high levels of taxes, tariffs and sanctions on anything.” Which Russia sells to the United States and many other participating countries.”

He continued: “Let’s end this war, which would never have started if I were president! We can do it the easy way, or the hard way – and the easy way is always better. It’s time to ‘make’ a deal.”

Kurt Volker, Trump’s former special representative in Ukraine, said Trump’s threat to impose more serious sanctions on Russia “sends a signal to Vladimir Putin that the situation is going to get worse, not better.” Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, he added: “We have to motivate Putin to say: ‘Okay, it’s actually time for a ceasefire.’

Russia’s deputy ambassador to the United Nations, Dmitry Polyansky, previously told Reuters news agency that the Kremlin would need to know what Trump wants in an agreement to stop the war before the country moves forward.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the World Economic Forum on Tuesday that at least 200,000 peacekeepers would be needed under any deal.

He told Bloomberg that any peacekeeping force for his country should include American forces to provide a realistic deterrent to Russia.

“It cannot be without the United States… Even if some European friends think it is possible, it will not be so,” he added, adding that no one else would risk such a step without the United States.

While Ukraine’s leaders may appreciate Trump’s tougher rhetoric – they have always said that Putin only understands force – the initial reaction in Kiev to the US president’s comments suggests that people are waiting for action, not words.

Trump did not specify where more economic sanctions might be imposed or when. Russian imports to the United States have been declining since 2022, and there are all kinds of heavy restrictions in place already.

Currently, the main Russian exports to the United States are phosphate- and platinum-based fertilizers.

Speaking to the BBC, Volcker said the Russian economy could suffer “significant” damage if Trump chooses to maintain or tighten the toughest US sanctions to date, which he said were only imposed as Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden left office. “Russia did not feel as much pressure as it could have,” he commented.

On social media, there was a generally vitriolic reaction to Trump’s comments from Ukrainians. Many suggested that further sanctions would be a weak response to Russian aggression. But the bigger question most people have is what Putin actually wants to discuss with Ukraine in any peace talks.

Meanwhile, some people in Moscow see signs that the Kremlin may be preparing Russians to accept less than the “victory” once envisioned, which included a tank advance all the way west to the southern Ukrainian port city of Odessa.

TV editor Margarita Simonyan, a staunch supporter of Putin, has begun talking about “realistic” conditions for ending the war, which she suggests could include stopping fighting along the current front line.

This means that the four Ukrainian regions that Putin illegally declared Russian territory more than two years ago, including Zaporizhia, are still partly under Kiev’s control.

Russian hardliners, the so-called “Z” bloggers, are very angry at such “defeatism.”

In his interview with the BBC on Thursday, former Trump envoy Volker said he was “skeptical that there would be an agreement per se,” adding that the US’s first priority might be to stop the fighting and then deter further attacks by Putin.

In his social media post on Wednesday, Trump also couched his threat of tougher tariffs and sanctions in words of “love” for the Russian people and highlighted his respect for Soviet losses in World War II, a near-sacred subject for Putin.

But Trump greatly exaggerated the numbers, and seemed to believe that the Soviet Union was Russia alone. In fact, millions of Ukrainians and other Soviet citizens lost their lives as well.

However, the man who previously said he could “understand” Russia’s concerns about Ukraine joining NATO – which for Kiev meant saying Putin had been provoked – appears to be changing his tune.

Trump’s position is important. But after 11 years of war with Russia and a history of poor peace agreements, Ukrainians are not too hopeful.