• Economists in the bank are estimated to increase Trump’s tariff It would cost American families $ 700 billion, equivalent to the largest raising of taxes that have been imposed since the 1968 LBJ’s revenue law funded its war in Vietnam.

President Donald Trump’s package of the customs tariff that will be imposed from next week, the United States cannot only drown in stagnation, but the entire world with him.

This is the simple conclusion reached by the higher economic minds in JPMorgan. In a research report published on Thursday entitled “There will be blood”, Wall Street Bank has argued to invest in investing that other global markets will not be flexible enough to escape the forces of gravity from the decrease in the American economy with definitions.

A review of her 2025 forecast for the second time in five weeks, Jpmorgan said he was neglected by the “extremist” agenda of the Trump administration that a set of huge import duties that were announced during the so -called “liberation day” of Trump.

As a result of the White House trying to turn its trade deficit into a problem for trade partners in America, JPMorgan has now presented the possibility of global recession to 60 % of 40 % before.

However, away from making the wealthy America again as Trump promised, JPMorgan calculates Taht the customs tariff will cost us consumers approximately $ 700 billion – a increase in the tax of nearly a painful economy with the passage of Lindon B. Johnson to finance the American war in Vietnam.

The bank said: “If it continues, the increased tariff at this year’s point by approximately 22 % will be the largest American tax increase since 1968,” the bank said.

The latest procedures raise the average rate of tariffs higher than even those seen during SMOOT-HWLY TV Law From 1930, many economists played a major role in exacerbating the great depression.

“A strong issue can be provided that the latest customs tariffs are more harmful given that the share of imports and the broader globalization is now much larger in the 1930s,” Folchy JPMorgan.

3 trillion dollars The American stock markets were wiped

The Trump administration has argued that the health industrialization base is important for national security, which deserves pain in the short term to capture the heavy industry that has been shared over many years and moved abroad. Indeed, the epidemic revealed a globalization with its defects, because the absence of semi -conductors of a commodity worth $ 1 was made in Taiwan, which prevented the manufacture of a passenger car worth $ 40,000.

However, due to the excessive dimensions and nature of definitions-they were not identified through mutual tariff rates, but commercial imbalances-their imposition risk raising a reprisal trade war where other countries design their protective walls in an escalation.

Here JPMorgan analysts admit that it becomes almost impossible to predict the result, given many variables in playing. It can reduce commercial feelings and supply chain disorder from the effects of definitions or exacerbate them.

As a result, the markets suffered on Thursday The worst day Since the outbreak of Covid Five years agowith 3 trillion dollars The equal value of American stocks is valued.

The main factor can be the upcoming negotiations, which the Trump administration is expected to seek concessions from partners who can reduce the trade deficit in exchange for reducing customs tariffs.

The relative feature can sometimes exceed the definitions

There are some basic economic facts that are likely not to change regardless of the tariff that is shipped.

Take the semiconductor industry as an example. Forting Chips is a dense capital work that requires specialized knowledge, critical mass and economics.

Taiwan did not simply become the world’s mascot – invested strongly in this specialization. Her grip on the production of third -party chips makes it a decisive partner for the United States and works as a strategic deterrent against Chinese aggression.

By comparison, American chips, such as AMD, which once made their own chips from this aspect of their processes to focus on the most profitable and less risky design and distribution. The so -called “less than the Burundian armed forces” like Nafidia Using external sources of production to foreign chips from the beginning.

JPMorgan raises this issue as a possible bloc and a source of friction during negotiations, which limits the Manover room and increases the risk of a lengthy trade war.

“More importantly, the current bilateral trade imbalances are related to the relative benefits that enhance efficiency and are generally independent of the barriers that prevent trade.”

This story was originally shown on Fortune.com

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2025-04-04 12:20:00