The world’s leading democracies are struggling to govern

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The G7 is the “steering committee of the free world,” according to Jake Sullivan, President Joe Biden’s national security adviser. If so, the free world has a problem. The majority of G7 governments are now so burdened by domestic political problems that they are unable to guide their countries – let alone the free world.

Let us consider here the political situations in France, Germany, Canada, Japan, and South Korea (the latter is not an official member of the G7, but routinely attends summits). In France, the government recently fell after it was unable to approve the budget. A The new Prime Minister It exists, but it will face the same problems. There is a lot of speculation that Emmanuel Macron will resign from his position as president before the end of his term in 2027.

Germany is heading towards elections after the collapse of the “traffic light” coalition led by Olaf Schulz. Japan’s recent elections saw the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lose its majority for the first time since 2009, and another election is likely to be held next year. in CanadaJustin Trudeau’s decade in power is coming to an undignified end. With his party trailing in the opinion polls, the Prime Minister is under intense pressure to resign.

the A piece of resistance Of democratic decline is South Koreawhere President Yeon Suk-yeol’s political position became so desperate that he declared martial law. Popular protests quickly forced him to retreat and led to his removal.

Outside of the United States, the only two G7 countries that can claim to have a stable government are the United Kingdom and Italy. British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer won an overwhelming majority in this summer’s elections. But his popularity in opinion polls has declined rapidly since then. In fact, Starmer is now even more so Unpopular After five months in office, more than any UK Prime Minister in four decades. Only Italian Giorgia Meloni can make a plausible claim for consideration Positively By its voters and markets.

So what ails the G7? As always, local context matters. In Japan, corruption scandals have weakened the Liberal Democratic Party. Macron and Trudeau are both leaders who have lost their luster after many years in office.

But there also appear to be two major factors that make it very difficult for almost all G7 democracies to maintain stable governments. The first is the decline of the political center and the rise of populist parties. The second is Financial pressure It has arisen from slow growth, aging societies, the pandemic, the 2008 financial crisis, and demands for increased defense spending.

Populism and financial problems feed on each other and make governance more difficult. The French government was subsequently overthrown He tried to cut spending and increase taxes – Combating the budget deficit at 6% of GDP. Since a large portion of the French Parliament is in the hands of the far left or the far right, it is extremely difficult to broker a political settlement.

Starmer’s large majority in Britain has enabled his government to do what the French could not: raise taxes. Try to balance the books. But tax increases contributed to the decline in Labour’s popularity. The difficulty of finding money in difficult times also played an important role in the political crises in Canada and Japan.

Donald Trump’s return to the White House is likely to contribute to an atmosphere of political instability throughout the G7. Instead of trying to help the governments of his Democratic allies, Trump and his current preferred government, Elon MuskHe seemed to enjoy accumulating pain. MAGA Republicans especially like to provoke center-left leaders like Trudeau, Schultz and Starmer.

Trump has gone out of his way to humiliate Trudeau, referring to Canada as America’s 51st state and its prime minister as its “governor.” Musk made headlines across Europe by 2013 Posting on X“Only the AfD can save Germany” He also held a well-publicized meeting with Nigel Farage, Britain’s reform leader, who made clear he hoped for financial support from Musk.

Republicans under Trump no longer consider the traditional conservatives in Europe to be their sister parties. Kemi Badenoch, Leader of the British Conservative Party Friedrich MerzGermany’s Christian Democrats leader can only look on in horror as Trump and Musk instead reach out to the radical nationalist right. Christian Lindner, the leader of Germany’s combative, pro-business Free Democrats, issued a somber appeal to Elon, telling him that the AfD is a “far-right party.” Touchingly, he seemed to think this would alienate Musk.

Merz’s party, the Christian Democratic Union, is currently far ahead of the AfD in German election polls. But it is clear that far-right and populist parties across the G7 now have a friend in the White House. Musk can help parties like the AfD and Reform with propaganda, and perhaps money. But his support may sometimes backfire. Nationalist parties such as French National Rally They have a strong anti-American tradition and would be wary of appearing as tools of wealthy foreigners.

Trump’s interventions may not guarantee his ability to install ideological comrades around the rest of the G7. Instead, it may create a situation in which the leaders of many of America’s closest allies come to view the President of the United States not as a friend, but as a dangerous political enemy.

gideon.rachman@ft.com