The reshaping of the Middle East

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Rula Khalaf, editor of the Financial Times, selects her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.

Hours after rejecting a US-led proposal for a 21-day truce with Hezbollah in September, Benjamin Netanyahu bragged that he was changing the balance of power in the region for years to come. The Israeli Prime Minister had just ordered the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, a sign that Israel has shifted its focus from the barren lands of Gaza to intensifying its offensive against the Lebanese militants. At the end of the year, the dynamics in the Middle East had shifted unquestionably in Israel’s favor.

The ongoing Israeli military bombardment of Hezbollah forced Hezbollah to reach a ceasefire agreement that gave Israel the right to continue strikes in Lebanon. Iran appears to be at its weakest point in years. The “axis of resistance” made up of Iranian-backed fighters, including Hezbollah and Hamas, looks more and more like a paper tiger. Israeli bombs destroyed much of the Islamic Republic’s air defenses in October – the largest conventional attack on Iran in decades.

The Islamist regime suffered another devastating setback this month when Syrian rebels ousted Bashar al-Assad, the dictator it supported during Syria’s civil war. About 4,000 Iranians were rushed out of the country, as Iran lost an important ally in the Middle East and a vital land link to supply Hezbollah, its most important proxy. Israel may not have had a direct hand in Assad’s spectacular demise, but its bombing of Iranian targets in Syria, HezbollahIt also helped support the regime and facilitated the rebels’ path to Damascus.

Since the intelligence failure of Hamas’ horrific attack on October 7, 2023, which killed 1,200 people and took 250 hostage, the degree of Israel’s military superiority over its opponents has become starkly clear. Netanyahu’s political fortunes rebounded in parallel. after agitation Many expected the end of his dominance of Israeli politics. However, he appears more entrenched than ever, with his far-right coalition strengthened by the addition of another party, and his poll numbers returning to pre-October 7 levels.

However, Israel’s battlefield gains have come at huge costs that will compound for years to come. No one should mourn the end of the brutal Assad regime, nor the weakening of the malignant influence of Iran and its proxies. But Israel’s military successes will forever be tainted by the untold suffering its attacks have brought to millions of people in Gaza and Lebanon.

Israel faces mounting accusations of genocide in Gaza, including a case before the International Court of Justice, in detailed reports by Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch and among Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, which Netanyahu has sought to court for some time. Long. Not only is the horrific death toll — more than 45,000 people, according to Palestinian officials — fueling such claims, but also Israel’s blockade of the Gaza Strip, which has a population of 2.3 million; restrictions on aid and water; The destruction of civilian infrastructure made most of the Strip uninhabitable.

The International Criminal Court, which issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu, said there were “reasonable grounds” to believe he bore criminal responsibility for “the war crime of starvation as a method of war…” . . And other inhumane acts.” The war and siege imposed by Israel constitute a disgrace not only on the face of Israel, but also on the face of the United States, which allowed Netanyahu to act with impunity.

After destroying Hamas’ military capacity and neutralizing regional threats to Israel, Netanyahu no longer has any justification for not ending the conflict and agreeing to a deal to release the remaining hostages. But he and his far-right allies seem intent on occupying more territory on different fronts and keeping Israel in a state of perpetual conflict. Ultimately, Israel’s security can only be guaranteed by peace, and Israel has never been in a stronger position to achieve that – if only Netanyahu could see it through.