Montreal, Canada – Just a few months ago, the ruling liberal party in Canada seemed ready to defeat the resounding elections for the year 2025.

Opinion polls have shown that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is behind the opposition conservatives by a large number 26 ° C.

The ability to afford the cost and a wide hatred of Trudeau has caused a decrease in the support of the liberals, and The calls were growing The Prime Minister besieged the resignation before the federal vote on the horizon.

However, experts say that the political tide is turning because of a set of factors, including Trudeau’s decision to resign, the liberal leadership, strengthened the party’s momentum, and US President Donald Trump’s threats against Canada.

The liberals quickly narrowed the gap behind the conservatives, according to recent surveys, with One poll It was published last week as it displayed the party with the leadership of the conservatives for the first time since 2021.

“Two months ago, the liberals were on the ropes, and many believed that they had ended politically,” said Simra Seifi, a professor of assistant political science at the University of Toronto.

“Now, they suffer from appearing.”

Trudeau’s resignation

Trudeau’s decision in early January to Relax as prime minister Al -Jazeera experts said that the liberal party leader, as soon as his alternative was chosen, is one of the main factors responsible for the party’s changing wealth.

Trudeau, who was Prime Minister Since 2015He faced years of public anger to escalate due to his government’s Covid-19s, as well as high housing prices and the cost of living.

The Prime Minister and his party also failed to confront years effectively from the attacks from the Conservative Party and its fires Leader, Pierre PoilleverThe one who promised change while blame Todo to all Canadian ills.

Daril Bricker, CEO of IPSOS, said the company that published an opinion poll in late February, which showed liberals their first progress in four years, with the launch of Trudeau, political dynamics changed.

Bricker explained that some voters joined the Conservative Camp because of the desire to change more than support the party’s agenda or Poilievre.

“now [they are] Thinking that there may be another option to change. “This is Mark Carne.”

Carney, the former governor of Canada Bank The race candidates To replace Trudeau as a leader of the liberal party, and thus, as Prime Minister next to Canada.

The race helped reactivate the liberal base and got the attention of the national media, which increased interest in the party.

“Mark Carney Bricker said about the leadership competition, which will be determined in a vote on March 9:

Conservative correspondence

At the same time, it appears that the Conservative Party is struggling to re -focus its messages in the afternoon of Canadian politics.

“One of the things that Poilievre was very successful during the past two years, he was describing the liberal registry in a way that the Canadians learned to oppose what the liberals were doing,” said Bricker.

Poilievre was successful Interesting Trudeau In particular, he added. “But what happened is that the Prime Minister has passed well, you cannot continue to blame him.”

Poilievre and Conservatives tried to link Carney, who previously served as economic advisor in Trudeau, but he was never an elected member of the Parliament of Canada, in the liberal government record.

They called him “Carney Carbon Tax”, referring to an unpopular liberal government Carbon pricing program Carney had publicly supported him, but he said since then he intended to scrap if he was elected.

“Carney-Trudeau Liberals” regularly attacks on social media.

But Bricker said that over the past few weeks, Canadians have become more interested in the past ten years of liberal policies more than what is happening today – especially with regard to the United States.

Trump worker

In fact, the statements that have come out of the White House since Trump took office on January 20 have been the most important factor in the return of liberals, Analysts say.

For several months, the American president threatened to do so A sharp tariff tax On the imports of Canada in a move that experts say will destroy the Canadian economy.

Trump continued with this plan this week, as a large tariff entered a 25 percent on most Canadian commodities in the early hours of Tuesday. Ottawa responded by placing mutual measures against the United States, fearing fears of Commercial war.

The customs duties, along with the repeated batch of Trump to make Canada the 51st American state, fueled widespread anger and an increase in Canadian nationalism. Many Canadians are now calling for separation from the United States, which they no longer see as a stable ally.

Jenviev Telele, a professor of political science at the University of Ottawa, said that the so -called “polling question” in the Canadian elections will undoubtedly be the most appropriate party to respond to Trump and manage Canada’s relations and the United States.

“before [the focus] Was the liberals to overcome the conservatives? “Tell him Al -Jazeera.” Now it’s not so, it is related to economic leadership, it is how it responds to [the] Americans? “

She explained that Poilievre’s combat style has served him well in the opposition, but some Canadians are now wondering whether he can combine people.

“The problem of Poilievre is that it often says the same as Donald Trump,” Teleh added. “There are many things in which we see some similarities.”

Meanwhile, the Canadians, who helped the Canadians, which helped the Canadians, which helped the liberals in Trudeau threatens the American president. And once, the government CureThis was not the case before. “

Invitation to early elections?

Meanwhile, as Canadian anxiety is still about the Trump administration policies, The timing of the federal elections has taken new importance.

The elections must be held by October 20, but liberals – as a party in the government – can lead to a vote before that.

Savi said at the University of Toronto that contacting the elections shortly after choosing their new leader on March 9 could help Party Keep its momentum, “especially with pressure to address tariff threats and economic anxiety such as housing and inflation.”

Telier said that the invitation of the early elections will also allow the liberals to avoid some possible political decisions.

Trudeau Parliament suspended In early January, when he announced that he was stepped down. It is scheduled to resume in late March.

If the legislators return to the House of Commons, the next liberal leader will have to form the cabinet and deliver a letter that defines the priorities of the new minority government, both of which can prove controversy.

“If you call early elections, you will not have to do all these things,” Telele said.

In the end, whenever a voting date is set, experts agree that Canada is heading to a completely different competition from the predicted competition just a few months ago.

“The elections are formed to be more competitive than expected. With foreign policy, leadership and economic issues, all of which play major roles,” Sify told Al -Jazeera.