Foreign tourists have had a significant impact on Japanese economic growth in recent years. However, its effect on forgery can begin with the enhancement of the yen, analysts said.

Tourists were a major engine for the emergence of the Japanese economy. Many were attracted from the weakness in the yen, which made shopping, entertainment, transportation and stay during the night cheaper.

What happens if the tide turns and enhances the yen?

The travel spending has increased in Japan in recent years. In fact, the coming tourism contributed half Among the average GDP growth in Japan by 1.5 % in 2023, and 0.4 percentage of the annual GDP growth by 0.1 % in Japan last year, according to the MasterCard Economics Institute.

It represents a major change in the formation of the world’s largest economy. Tourism with an average of 0.1 percentage points to GDP from 2010 to 2019, at a time when Japan’s GDP growth rate was 1.2 %.

The Mei report showed that the weakest yen made Japan a more attractive shopping destination. David Man, the chief economist in MasterCard in Asia, Pacific David Man, said that tourists prefer to spend on experiments, such as going to a restaurant, party or bar.

Japan was one of the most important travel destinations in Asia recently. To the extent that, according to the Japanese Tourism Organization, she saw the country A record 36.9 million visitors Throughout 2024.

Not only that, but tourists also spent more than that, as preliminary numbers reached Record 8.1 trillion yen (54.06 billion dollars), a huge increase of 53.4 % compared to last year.

The average individual spending between travelers abroad to Japan increased by 6.8 % to 227,000 yen. However, some of the conditions that enabled this higher tourist interest can be about to reflect.

The height of the local inflation of the Bank of Japan has prompted interest rates, unlike other major central banks that reduce interest rates. This, in turn, raised yen To strengthen the highest level in five months against the US dollar on March 11.

Yujiro Goto, head of FX, told Japan in Nomura, CNBC that the weakest tourism will be negative for GDP growth in Japan.

This is because the twice the yen was one of the main reasons for the acceleration of tourism. This trend is expected to reflect a significant estimate in the currency.

The lane was seen last time traded at 148.26 against Greenback, which reinforces about 7.2 % compared to the increase of 2025 at 158.87.

Goto said that the simple estimate of the yen, which was at its lowest historical levels, “such as 161 to 146 so far against the US dollar may not change the direction, from my point of view.”

Men Joe Kang, senior economists in Japan and South Korea at the Dutch Bank, is participating in this view, but also indicated that tourism may still have a room for growth, given that the number of Chinese tourists has not yet recovered to pre -favorite levels.

“The measures announced during the weekend to enhance consumption also include support for high wages growth and stimulating Chinese asset markets. This may lead to an increase in Chinese Chinese tourism,” she added.

Beijing appeared on Sunday A plan to increase consumption, call for measures to raise wages, as well as “multiple measures” to achieve stability in the stock market, among other things.

The growth of tourism does not necessarily mean that the expansion of GDP in Japan will fall cliff. Mancard Man said that the contribution of local consumption in Japan is expected to improve, given the strong labor market and increase in wages.

The largest labor union in Japan announced last Friday that it managed to secure an average 5.46 % increase in wages From April, the largest increase in 34 years.

Man said: “So tourism may disappear, but then local consumption may be a growth engine,” Man said.

If there is an estimate of the Japanese yen, Ingz said that it has a more positive impact on the local economy, which enhances consumption and special services.

Goto also said that the gradual force in the yen may slow down the cost and improve the real wages among the locals. This would help transform the contribution of GDP from foreign spending to local spending.

Moreover, Goto said that although the disturbances have become a major problem in areas such as Kyoto, foreign demand clearly supports wages and the positive feedback ring for inflation that BOJ wants to achieve.

He also pointed out that “regional governments may consider higher taxes for foreign visitors (hotels, airports, etc.), which can support the Japanese financial situation during the management of tourist flows.”

Man concluded by saying that tourism was a much greater contribution than anyone expected during the past two years, and “will remain a major contributor to the Japanese economy before it reduces more and replaced it with slightly stronger contributions than spending on local consumers.”

“Perhaps the twice the yen will start to reflect at least this year, but it will be a long -term process, rather than wrapped within a month or two only.” Man added.