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Your guide to what the American elections mean 2024 for Washington and the world

The “alert stock” is a term that has only entered the colloquial markets recently. It is time to retire again quickly.

It indicates the idea that if it becomes difficult, and that American stock markets stumble in value, Donald Trump will sit and notice and reverse some of his most aggressive policies. This is usually a task that left the bond market, but here we have a president that he enjoys in glory reflected in optimistic stock markets during his first term. Certainly this sensitivity cuts both directions? Certainly investors and analysts assumed it. (Full detection: and so did.)

This idea was its first trial in Trump 2.0 in February, when Trump announced that he was serious about slapping the huge commercial tariffs on the supposed friends and neighbors in Canada and Mexico. Unfortunately, the guard was inventory I found a shortage. The stocks stumbled, but they are very moderate to take any warning devices in the oval office. That president left and managed free to double, not retreat. It appears to be the strongest vigilance, apparently.

After one month, the markets are clearly more clear, as American stocks enter a brief period in the alleged correction area-with a decrease in ten of the latest. Whether they have more fall or not, of course, the issue of opinion. Ask two analysts, get at least three answers.

In both cases, even at this stage, the volume of rethinking in the United States among money managers is unusual. In the latest monthly survey of fund managers all over the world, it was issued on Tuesday, Bank of America Find The biggest swing from the United States ever. A quarter of a net box manager said they are now underweight in American stocks – carrying a smaller specialty than the global standards that he suggests, a decrease of about 40 percentage points from the previous survey. Nearly 70 percent of investors say that the concept of “American exceptional” has now reached its climax.

Investors are in mood. The bank’s poll also found the second largest rise in pessimism levels-those who say they expect the global economy to weaken-since its records began in 1994. For the context, it was the largest increase five years ago, in the teeth of global clips.

This is more similar to this-an unambiguous message from Wall Street to the president that its continuous fluctuation in the definitions and what we may call in theory that its geopolitical reorganization is a black sign against the stock market that led the world as long as most of the fund managers can remember.

Again, although the Trump team claims it is not approved. In fact, it runs the entire idea on her head, and seeks to persuade the world that this is what they want all the time – a retinging reset in the markets that are a necessary step to make America great again. I missed this from the campaign of the campaign as well.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessin, the same man who Declare Last year, “Kamala Harris will start with the collapse Now he says It is “not at all” concern about the “healthy” correction that was recently. Trade Minister Howard Lootnick chanted this, With reference Earlier this month, the performance of the stock market is not the “driving force” behind the president’s tariff policy.

“Trump and his administration expressed greater tolerance with the negative economic repercussions of the customs tariff than what we expected,” also analysts at Barclays.

Those who are waiting for “placement” here – the point in the market in which the president has a change in the heart and retreat – crawls to the terrible perception that they have sinned. “Where did a situation go?” HSBC multiple assets team requested.

They said that one of the few things should happen: to return it to play: one of the few things: a permanent exploitation of public debt or fairness in the world must occur; The outbreak of tension in the deepest plumbing of the financial system; Or global and unorganized collapse in risky assets. None of these happens yet – the decline in American stocks in Europe has not fully affected, for example, and market movements were organized, if they were unpleasant.

One related element to add to that list is the shock of bonds. Currently, the cabinet is widely calm and balanced-with the support of the increasing opportunity for American economic slow, but also with continuous fears of financial urinary incontinence and the emerging anxiety about the state of reserve work of the dollar. If there is something to break in any of the two directions there, the administration is likely to respond.

Bond Bond – the original and the best – is still overcoming their novice counterparts in any day of the week.

katie.martin@ft.com