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Your guide to what the American elections mean 2024 for Washington and the world

Whatever their other failures, the millennial generation in civilization contributed to the word “Cope” in the form of a name. For translation, the treatment is an attempt to make the situation seem less desperate than it is, and thus the examples abound in these dark times. “At least Donald Trump will be good to work.” This is sticking. “If one thing Donald Trump notes, it is the stock market.” This is the first class Cope. Quoting the exacerbation of economic data and presidential approval classifications, on the basis that “Donald Trump cannot ignore these numbers,” is a cup of the month.

Of course he can ignore them. The central truth about Trump’s second state is that he cannot run for the third. It was now released from public opinion, which has been served to keep it last time the last time. If its tariff Stimulate stagnationOr his foreign policies is a global crisis, which leads the classification of his consent to the depths of hell, what exactly does he lose? In the worst case, the Republicans-who are interested in little-will be disrupted in the mid-term elections, and after that, the second president in the second term will be a lame duck regardless.

After disturbing this Since NovemberI can expect two responses. One of them is that Trump wants to launch JD Vance or perhaps a blood relative as a candidate for the Republican Party in 2028, so he should not bother them with economic and geopolitical chaos. please. Even traditional leaders such as Angela Merkel, Tony Blair and Joe Biden were neglected to plan the caliphate. Do we think that the ego from Trump’s dimensions will restrict himself out of strategic interest in the horizons of another three years from here? (By the way, a political It looks better, not worse, if their successor flounders with voters.)

The other response is that Trump will overcome the twenty -second amendment and run again, or even cancel the upcoming presidential elections. It would be a rash to refuse to control. But we are talking about the collapse of a wonderful constitution here. It is a tail. The main issue should be that Trump will have to leave the office on the specified date, in 82 years, and this is known. As such, the possibility of stagnation and insecurity in the coming years may not chase it as far as rational analysts tend to think.

It is worse, in fact. Among the three most harmful things Trump It – designs Ukraine, erodes local institutions and imposes customs tariffs – may stimulate the main recession to go more difficult in the first two. The worse the economy, the better it would be withholding rare American resources from the European defense. The more the financial numbers are, the more causing the federal government and other public bodies. The recession may be an extreme event, not a sane event.

In essence, Trump is now almost a post -political figure, able to do things as it ends in itself instead of analyzing the electoral impact. Trump did not volunteer in the first -term information that the definitions brought “turmoil”, as it could have been political harm. The first administration is considering swinging. This yearns to communicate with the Maga base. The first had business characters that were diluted and reassuring Exxonmobil types; This one contains the millennial dreamer of wealth that can not be truly prejudiced. The first common populist practitioner or Garden; This one has an effect of something better described as nihilism.

There is only a single Trump ram that contains the element of truth. It still responds to concessions from the conflicting parties, whether in the form of personal compliments or material SOPS. To obtain evidence of this negotiation, see the tariff pattern against definitions against Canada or intelligence sharing with Ukraine, which seems to depend on the degree of those countries from surrendering to Trump in a specific week. But voters? Discipline of having to mind the floating voter? That yoke slid in November.

Since it places a few of the boundaries written on the executive authority, it is said that the constitution of Britain, in its essence, is a great bet on the goodwill of politicians. One aspect of the American regime is not completely different, and this is the second term for the presidency, especially the past two years. At that point, the supreme leader knows the date of his departure, but he is still the most powerful person on earth. While the Supreme Court and other restrictions still apply, many depend on the conscience of that individual to keep them straight (as well as their fear of being unwanted to retire). Iran Contra, the bulk of Watergate coverage: it tells the number of post -war scandals that occur in the second conditions.

Now imagine someone in this place that has no feeling of limiting the republic, nor, as it enters the ninth decade, AENS from the time of retirement to fill. The conditions cannot be mixed until Trump comes out in a fire from any unlike glory.

Since November, it has been difficult to avoid the belief that many people, believing themselves, had been excessive in Trump in his first term. You see this in the great ignorance of the democratic message now. I see it, above all, between business leaders, with their always exciting belief that everyone ultimately shares pragmatism. It seems that their bet is that Trump, who had a politician’s fear of the recession and the general Oudium that comes with him, will reconsider his worst ideas because his economic effects are clear. It amazes me as a cold analysis and a man’s penetration, eight years ago.

Janan.ganesh@ft.com