16 months have passed since the Israeli war began on Gaza, and the pocket is in ruin.

The reconstruction will be one of the biggest reconstruction efforts in modern history, with the issue of who will pay for it still needs to be addressed.

Israeli army More than 61,700 people were killed 110,000 others were wounded, most of them women and children. Many bodies are still buried under up to up to 50 million tons From the rubble.

Currently, there is no clear plan for reconstruction. Last week, President Donald Trump I have comments about The United States “assuming” Gaza and forcing its people, while human rights groups said is ethnic cleansing.

His suggestion She rejected By international leaders.

The real cost of reconstruction is still unknown

Since October 7, 2023, Israel has decreased at least 75,000 tons From explosives on Gaza. More than 90 percent of homes and 88 percent of schools were damaged or destroyed, not to mention the bombing of roads, hospitals, farms and water treatment facilities.

The United Nations estimates that it will cost $ 53 billion to rebuild Gaza, and the report of the United Nations Development Program, which was issued last year, said that it might take at least until 2040.

“The United Nations Development Program does not explain all material infrastructure. Rami Lazier, an economist at the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, said it is just housing.

“We will not know the real cost of reconstruction until an evaluation is made on the ground. However, we know that it will cost tens of billions of dollars.” The process will have to start clearing the rubble. “

Clear-UP alone will cost at least $ 1.2 billion, or “slightly more than half of Gaza Gaza GDP in 2022”, according to Aszia.

The removal of the rubble will be complex due to the uninterrupted munitions, dangerous pollutants – such as asbestos – and Thousands of bodies.

Away from physical infrastructure, it rebuilds people’s lives in Gaza.

“The circumstances of the war have paid unemployment up to 90 percent,” said Alazzeh. “Human capital has been badly exposed. Children have already lost 16 months of school, and people have not received sufficient medical care for a year and a half.”

In the first nine months of the conflict, the World Health Organization informed nearly a million cases of acute respiratory infections in Gaza, half a million cases of diarrhea and 100,000 cases of scabies, all against the background of High malnutrition.

With the long -term development prospects in Gaza, “strongly restricted”, Alazzeh said, “The pace of reconstruction will depend on the resumption of hostilities as well,” referring to the repeated destruction of Israel’s infrastructure in Gaza in the past.

Financing more than money

After the 2014 Israeli war on Gaza, international donors 5.4 billion dollars pledged To rebuild efforts on roads, hospitals, housing complexes and agricultural projects.

This time, reconstruction will focus on similar areas, but the general level of destruction is greater and the situation seems more fearful.

Palestinian Development Specialist Raja Khalidi Al -Jazeera told Trump’s strange plan, “The main players like Egypt and Qatar will not put much money on the table without a political process.”

For Khalidi, “reduce the blockade and obstetrician [construction] The momentum will require an acceptable government in Gaza for donors, Palestinians and Israelis.

Even if the money is imminent, Khalidi said, Israel’s ban on “”Double use“Building materials enter Gaza – dating back to 2007 – prevent construction. Israel prohibits the import of tubes, steel and cement, claiming that it can help Hamas to build underground tunnels.

While the third stage of The ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel It provides for the full withdrawal of the Israeli forces, followed by the process of rebuilding from three to five years. Khalidi stressed that the chances of reaching this stage are very small.

Israel has already threatened to return to the bombing of Gaza if Hamas did not launch three agreed towers by Saturday.

Hamas announced a temporary stop in implementing its side of the ceasefire agreement, citing Israel’s repeated violations of the ceasefire.

The Middle East Plan Trump

Israel said it would not push for the damage to the damage it caused in Gaza.

“Israel has rejected the idea of ​​compensation,” said Daniel Levy, former Israeli government adviser. “Unfortunately, Israel is also granted an opinion on how Gaza is operating.”

The Israeli government said it would not accept the Hamas leadership in Gaza, while many in the international community want to rule the ending Palestinian Authority The Palestinians In Gaza.

Until last week, analysts believed that Trump – who has long wanted the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel through Ibrahim agreements -He will try to run the Israeli and Palestinians to run an acceptable peace at the regional level, albeit fragile.

But after Trump’s proposal to purify Gaza ethnically, the “Saudi -Israeli normalization, which Radia was adapted to create a Palestinian state, was” possibility of “kicking him into the long grass,” said Levy.

“The position of Saudi Arabia in the establishment of a fixed and fixed Palestinian state”, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to it He said in response to Trump “Riviera of the Middle East” plan.

Levy said: “I do not hold my breath on a two -state solution.” “Unfortunately for Gaza, the reconstruction is the shadow conversation. Reconstruction revolves around politics … and in the end it transmits balance away from Israeli interests.”

“I do not expect Trump or the international community to do this soon,” he said.

For Economist Khaledi, the Palestinian torque after 16 months of war offers a glimpse of the future.

“If the money is [from abroad] It does not come, the people of Gaza will rebuild themselves. ”It will take longer, but they will do it.”