Islamabad, Pakistan – When the Taliban took over Kabul in August 2021, Pakistan’s then-Prime Minister Imran Khan famously said the Afghan group had “broken the shackles of slavery” when it returned to power for the first time since 2001.

The rise of the Taliban was a boost to the regional influence of Pakistan, which has long been considered a patron of the Afghan group seeking to achieve “strategic depth” to Islamabad.

This principle reflects Pakistan’s military interest in maintaining its strategic control over Afghanistan through the Taliban movement and using it as a means of pressure against India, its traditional opponent.

Three years later, that calculation appears to have failed, leaving Pakistani officials angry about relations with Kabul, even as the Taliban moves closer to an unexpected partner: India.

Indian Foreign Minister Vikram Misri met with Acting Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Mottaki in Dubai last week, marking the highest public interaction between New Delhi and the Taliban. This meeting followed a series of steps taken by both sides that signal a significant break from a quarter-century of hostility and deep-rooted distrust in Pakistan’s support for the Taliban.

If this shift expands Indian influence in Afghanistan, it could strain relations between Islamabad and Kabul, warned Iftikhar Ferdous, co-founder of The Khrasan Diary, a portal that tracks regional security issues. “Ultimately, the Afghan people, who depend on the Pakistani border, will bear the brunt of this tug of war,” he told Al Jazeera.

Old friend, new partner

Since the 1980s when it supported the mujahideen against the Soviet Union during the first two decades of the 21st century, Pakistan has been the main supporter of the Taliban, many of whose leaders have found refuge on Pakistani soil.

In contrast, India viewed the group as a proxy of Pakistan, closing its embassy in Kabul after the Taliban first came to power in Afghanistan in 1996. It blamed the Taliban and its current allies in government, including the Haqqani network, for repeatedly attacking India. Diplomatic missions in Afghanistan – Embassy in 2008 and 2009, Indian consulates in Jalalabad in 2013, Herat in 2014, and Mazar-i-Sharif in 2015.

But a decade later, these equations no longer hold.

December 2024 saw Pakistan and Afghanistan Exchanging blows Pakistan said they were on each other’s territory, as Pakistan faced the deadliest year of violence, especially against law enforcement, since 2016. He was targeting The Afghan bases of the Pakistani Taliban armed group, known as TTP, which Islamabad accuses the Afghan Taliban of harboring.

Meanwhile, India appeared to have done just that She recalibrated her approachAnd deal diplomatically with Taliban officials.

The first important meeting took place in Kabul in November 2024, when JP Singh, Joint Secretary of the Indian Ministry of External Affairs supervising the Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran Bureau, met Afghanistan’s acting Defense Minister Mullah Muhammad Yaqoob.

A week later, the Taliban nominated Ikramuddin Kamil as their envoy to New Delhi, although India has not yet officially recognized the current rulers of Kabul.

After a meeting last week between Al-Masry and Mottaqi, the Foreign Ministry described India as an “important regional and economic partner.”

“Geography does not change”

Some Pakistani analysts say Islamabad has nothing to worry about – at least not yet.

Asif Durrani, former Pakistani special representative to Afghanistan, said Pakistan and Kabul share a deeper relationship than New Delhi and Kabul do. “India left Afghanistan after the Taliban seized power and has now returned after evaluating mutual trade opportunities. India and Afghanistan are sovereign countries and are free to establish relations,” Durrani told Al Jazeera. “Pakistan should only object if these relations become detrimental to its interests,” Durrani told Al Jazeera.

Maleeha Lodhi, former Pakistani ambassador to the United Nations, the United States and the United Kingdom, echoed this sentiment.

“Landlocked Afghanistan mainly depends on Pakistan for trade as well as transit trade. The geography is not changing just because India is now seeking closer ties with Kabul,” she told Al Jazeera.

But although the geography of Afghanistan has not changed, much has changed in recent years.

Although India has pumped more than $3 billion into Afghanistan over the past two decades, the Afghan government’s main trade route remains the Pakistani border, where tensions have risen, with Islamabad’s growing concerns about attacks by the Pakistani Taliban.

Pakistani Taliban movementFounded in 2007, it has ideological roots with the Afghan Taliban and has launched a violent insurgency against Pakistan. Data last year showed more than 600 attacks in Pakistan, killing about 1,600 people, including nearly 700 law enforcement personnel. The Pakistani Taliban claimed responsibility for most of these attacks.

Pakistan has held multiple meetings with Afghan authorities, including a visit by its special representative, Mohammad Sadiq, in December, after a Pakistani Taliban attack killed 16 Pakistani soldiers.

However, during the visit of Sadiq, who is serving his second term in this position, the Pakistani army launched air attacks on the Birmal district bordering Pakistan. The Afghan government, which denies harboring armed groups, said the raids killed at least 46 people, including women and children. Just days later, the Afghan Taliban responded, saying they had been targeted “several points” In Pakistan.

Lodhi pointed to the reappointment of Sadiq as special representative as a sign of efforts to mend relations. “Pakistan and Afghanistan are reconnecting diplomatically to reset relations after a year of high tensions. Improving relations is a strategic imperative for both countries,” she said.

But the meeting between Al-Masry and Muttaqi last week also included a conversation about a topic that some experts say may be another layer of complexity in Pakistan’s relations with the Afghan Taliban: the development of the Iranian port of Chabahar by India.

Chabahar factor

In its statement on the meeting between Mottaki and Masri, the Afghan Foreign Ministry said that they talked about boosting trade using the Chabahar port, which could help landlocked Afghanistan bypass Pakistan to receive and send goods.

Chabahar is located in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan province, across the border from Pakistan’s Balochistan province – a resource-rich part of the country where Islamabad has long been battling separatist groups. Many of these rebels have taken refuge in Iran.

Iran Air strikes were launched On Pakistani soil in January 2024, it targeted alleged hideouts of anti-Tehran armed groups that had found refuge in Balochistan. Pakistan also responded with strikes.

While tensions between Iran and Pakistan eased in the wake of those strikes, Islamabad has long accused New Delhi of stirring up the Baloch nationalist movement.

Pakistan cited the 2016 arrest of Kulbhushan Yadav, whom Islamabad claimed was an Indian spy working in Balochistan. India denies these accusations, claiming that Yadav was kidnapped from Iran.

“Indian involvement in Balochistan and its support for separatists is a long-standing Pakistani narrative, which was confirmed by Yadav’s arrest,” Firdaus said.

Against this backdrop, “Pakistan will view the reference to Chabahar port and its involvement in Indo-Afghan trade as interference,” the Peshawar-based analyst added.