During Donald Trump’s first term in office, Italian Giorgia Meloni was a far-right politician who greatly admired the US president but had little influence at home – let alone in Europe.

Now European leaders are counting on it Watermelon – “A wonderful woman,” according to Trump – for convincing the US president to back down from his threat to hit the European Union with tariffs to force it to spend more on US defense and energy.

The Italian Prime Minister was the only European Union leader to attend Trump’s inauguration on Monday, highlighting her ideological and personal affinity with him – just weeks after his inauguration. Dine with a Republican At Mar-a-Lago to secure his support for a prisoner exchange deal with Iran.

“Europe is in a terribly vulnerable state and is very afraid of losing the protection of the United States, and very afraid that Trump will do something that will cause great harm to Europe,” said Giovanni Orsina, a political science professor at Luis University in Rome.

The same European establishment that once shunned Meloni as a dangerous extremist now appears to have pinned its hopes on her as a “conduit.” TrumpOrsina said.

Besides the potential trade war, European leaders fear that Trump will reach an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the fate of Ukraine without any concern for the continent’s security concerns and abandon his NATO allies who have failed to increase defense spending.

Italy is particularly vulnerable to Trump’s wrath over the matter because it has failed to meet NATO’s defense spending target of 2 percent of GDP in 2024. But the US president has so far ignored Rome on the issue, telling reporters on Monday that “Spain has been… “Very low” and threatens to impose customs duties on the largest NATO country lagging behind in military spending.

Trump said NATO’s new spending target should be 5 percent of gross domestic product, a difficult target for countries like Italy, France and Germany whose economies are not witnessing significant growth and which are struggling to curb public spending and debt.

Meloni’s supporters say her “special relationship” with the US administration gives her a better chance than any of her EU peers to defend her case against tariffs and other punitive measures.

“With any important decision affecting Italy and Europe, Giorgia Meloni will have the opportunity to be heard,” said Lucio Malan, a senator for her right-wing Brothers of Italy party. “Italy’s voice will be heard…that’s something.”

Beniamino Erdi, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said Meloni could still find it difficult to act as Trump’s European interlocutor.

“It is not clear how interested Trump is in establishing a real relationship with Europe,” Erdi said. “He has always tended to favor bilateral relations with nation-states that already have the authority and power to make things happen.”

Meloni’s connections appear to have paid off even before Trump’s inauguration. After meeting the Republican at Mar-a-Lago earlier this month, she was able to secure the release of an Italian journalist from Iran. In return, Italy released Mohammad Abedini, an Iranian citizen who the United States was searching for on charges of smuggling drone technology to Tehran.

The prisoner exchange has boosted Meloni’s approval ratings, which are higher now than when she took office more than two years ago. “By having the courage to go to Trump, she expressed real leadership and effectiveness, and public opinion picked up on that,” said Lorenzo Brigliasco, founder of YouTrend, an Italian pollster.

The Brothers of Italy have long maintained ties with American Republicans and Trumpworld, with Meloni attending the National Prayer Breakfast during Trump’s first presidency.

In 2018, Trump’s “America First” ideologue, Steve Bannon, was the main attraction at the party’s annual political festival in Rome. In 2023, American billionaire and technology mogul Elon Musk was the first guest. Since then, he and Meloni have established strong personal and political ties, with her government continuing negotiations with his company SpaceX to secure military communications.

Stefano Stefanini, Italy’s former ambassador to NATO, said that in the coming months, Meloni will likely play a “useful moderating role” in her talks with Trump on Ukraine and security, including trying to convince him to accept a gradual increase in defense spending. .

He added: “It is not possible for Italy to spend 5 percent of its GDP on defense.” “Italy may reach 2 [per cent] Or even 3 percent, and it could get away with convincing Trump that Italy – as well as other European countries – is moving towards the goal gradually.

But Stefanini said that on issues such as the ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, it is unclear to what extent the US president will listen to her.

“There is no evidence . . . of any foreign leader who had any real influence on Trump’s decisions.”

Stefanini said Meloni may have more success protecting some Italian products from Trump’s tariffs. But that could lead to friction between Rome and the European Commission, which manages trade policy on behalf of the bloc.

By establishing a successful bilateral relationship with Washington, Meloni can show other European leaders that this is the best way to deal with the Trump administration. . . “Not through Brussels,” Stefanini said.

“It will weaken the EU, but a weak EU is what Trump wants.”