Good morning. Tired of uncertainty? Very bad: The Trump administration again fell on its tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which gave one month for all the goods compatible with the United States and Mexico-separation agreement (USMCA), the successor of Nava who negotiated President Trump in 2020. All now: No! one! Know! anything! Our correspondent email: Robert.armstrong@ft.com and Iden.reiter@ft.com.

Trump’s sensitivity to the markets

One of the Standard Calisheets for the Trump Administration analysis is that the markets, if nothing else, will provide handrails. If he pays economically destructive policies, definitions, deportation, stocks or bonds will encourage him to decline. This is “Trump’s situation”.

One may see a confirmation of this idea in the events of the last days. Trump has imposed a tariff on Canada and Mexico, according to the Orthodox economy, which will harm the American economy and will also lead, according to Corporaate America, to harm corporate profits. The stocks, apparently in response, had two volatile and unpleasant days. As expected, the definitions were over and over again Delay. Protests from the administration – Minister of Treasury Saying His focus is on the main street and not Wall Street, the president says: “I do not even look at the market” – the fragile and defensive voice in this context.

The problem with this reading is that despite a lot of sound and anger, the markets simply did not move much. The S& P 500 index, the index, watched by everyone, decreased by only 7 percent of its highest level ever less than a month ago. Treasury revenue decreased for ten years sharply from its highest levels in January, and this decrease is certainly due to the decrease in growth forecasts. But the administration loves to decrease the rates and weakness of the dollar; The president boasted about the decrease in the prices of his word against Congress on Tuesday. Whether it is unaware of the malicious cause of the decline, or it is simply happy to slip above it, it is unknown. Therefore, the non -recommended argues that the thesis of the markets that are traveling in the construction has not been made an appropriate test.

But one can look back at the first Trump’s term guidance. Jeremy Schwartz did it from Nomura, and he concludes this

The date of Trump’s first term indicates tolerance of relatively pain for weak stock market. . . The simplest and broadest evidence that Trump has chosen the escalation of the trade war in 2018 (one of the worst years not to perform shares in recent decades). It is worth noting that this was also a year with mid -term renewal elections. . . On a smaller level, we also see a little evidence of Trump’s timing of customs tariffs for stock market management.

Interestingly, Rafael Ch of Signum Global Advisors has looked at the same date and reached a little different outcome. It was found that in most cases in which Trump presented a special suggestion or threat in particular, whether it was steel and aluminum on Mexico or met with Xi Jinping, most of the time the markets moved against. But the market step should be continuous: more than two and a half percent move on the basis of average trading for more than a month. There is little evidence to respond to the short -term market movements. As CH indicates, we haven’t had any constant fall in the market yet in the second Trump administration, so we do not know if it would follow the same first style.

CH makes another important note. The reference point for the market retreat is important. Below where? It indicates that the members of the current administration are beginning to talk about how the markets have moved since the opening day, but they have now turned to talk about market performance since the election day.

In short: We do not know if there is Trump.

More about slowdown, and job inspection

Over the past two weeks, there has been a shift in economic expectations. The customs duties and the Ministry of Governmental competence are identified by the feelings of investors and consumers. At the same time, you did not get a lot of bad bad data (i.e., other than behavior). Some of the data that terrified the market is not bad as it appeared in the beginning.

Although the market was concerned about the ISM scanning estimates two weeks ago, the official version was not shocking. Both manufacturing and services continued to expand, and services witnessed receipt in most sub -indicators. Although Michigan’s feelings questionnaire was worrying, the market could read a lot in it. While feelings are high, surveys may be deceptive.

The same can be said about the last expectations. A very bad estimate of GDP for the first quarter of the Federal Atlanta team has received a lot of attention:

But the gross domestic product model is the problem here. Companies are a tariff provided by increasing imports, and imports record this negative for GDP. But these imports will be compensated by an increase in storage, which is positive for the gross domestic product that the model does not pick up, As our colleague Chris Giles Explain.

Instead, most of the difficult data we were solid or showed weakness in the market sectors that were already struggling. The market appears to have been concerned about the decline in housing two weeks ago. but Housing The market was already broken, and this was not a major change. The report of the unemployed demands that we obtained two weeks ago was also strong, and there was no early damage from Duji discounts.

All this puts today’s job report in the most clear focus.

The initial indicators we obtained this week indicate that it may be a bad report. On Wednesday, the ADP salary report was worse. It has been shown that employers added only 77,000 jobs last month, less than January and more than half of the unanimity estimate. Challenger scanner, which tracks job cutting ads, gave a bleak picture similar. Reducing the planned jobs more than twice to 172,000, and there was a significant increase in the declared discounts from the federal government. The banks of the weekly bank of America’s card showed that spending on consumers is picked up at the national level last week – but it fell in Washington, DC, where Dogs are afraid of workers.

We must see some impact From Dog in today’s job report. But in general the data is not so bad. Vapi’s transformation is still just feelings.

One good reading

Friendship.

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