Bogotá, Colombia – On January 10, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is scheduled to be sworn in for a third term in office. Disputed elections Full of accusations of fraud and oppression.

But as Venezuela prepares for its contentious inauguration, Maduro has repeatedly spent time in state media addressing an old foe: the former U.S. president. Donald Trump.

Trump is scheduled to be sworn in for a second term on January 20, just days after Maduro.

The two men repeatedly exchanged insults during Trump’s first term, from 2017 to 2021. But after Trump’s victory, Rerun of the last elections In November, Maduro spoke in a surprising tone.

He publicly congratulated Trump and described the GOP’s second term as a “new beginning.” Trump also called for strengthening a relationship saturated with “respect, healthy dialogue, and understanding.”

Experts say these comments indicate that the two powerful leaders may form a different bond this time.

This could be particularly crucial for Maduro, who faces increasing pressure after his departure Disputed electionsincluding from the United States.

“Maduro appears to be leaving the door open for a more realistic approach by the Trump administration,” said Laura Dibb, a Venezuelan expert at the Washington Office on Latin American Affairs, a US-based research and advocacy organization.

“Maximum pressure” campaign

However, it is still unclear how Trump will act when it comes to Venezuela.

During his first term, Trump pursued a “maximum pressure” strategy against Maduro, in an apparent attempt to oust the socialist leader.

Trump, the right-wing leader, has taken a hostile approach toward socialist and communist countries such as China and Cuba, even backing away from efforts to normalize relations with the latter.

But increasing Humanitarian crisis In Venezuela – and the ongoing allegations Government repression – He paved the way for Trump to go further than previous administrations in his efforts against Maduro.

he Tighter penalties Against besieged Venezuela Oil sectorIt froze the assets of Maduro’s inner circle and even issued a $100 million reward Up to $15 million To obtain information that could lead to the arrest of the Venezuelan President.

Additionally, when Maduro faced a disputed election earlier in 2018, Trump acknowledged a rival claim to the presidency from the then-opposition leader. Juan Guaido.

Trump: Maduro is an illegitimate ruler, a tyrant who brutalizes his people He said In his 2020 State of the Union address, while offering applause to Guaido. “But Maduro’s grip on tyranny will be shattered and broken.”

“Something needs to be done differently”

At first glance, it appears that Trump’s choice for Secretary of State, Senator Marco RubioThis may indicate a return to this hard-line approach.

Rubio, whose family fled Cuba as refugees, has been a long-time critic of governments in Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela. He had previously called for tougher penalties.

But analysts doubt that Trump will endorse the same “maximum pressure” strategy that failed to oust Maduro and contributed to a record influx of Venezuelan migrants and refugees.

Some critics blame oil sanctions imposed by Trump on Venezuela Exacerbating its economic crisisWhich helped in displacement. The United Nations now estimates that more than 7.77 million Venezuelans fled their country’s borders.

The number of Venezuelans entering the United States without authorization also rose, increasing by nearly as much 17 percent Every year from 2018 to 2022. The total resident population of the United States is estimated at approximately 320,000 people.

At the same time, he made Trump stopInvasion of immigrants“The United States is a central goal for his second term.

“I don’t think the Trump administration can take power and try to do the exact same thing they did in 2019 and 2020,” said Benigno Alarcón, director of the Center for Political Studies at Andres Bello Catholic University in Caracas, Venezuela. “Something needs to be done differently.”

Since Venezuelans are among the first nationalities to cross the U.S.-Mexico border infrequently, Trump’s policies toward Maduro are likely to be influenced by his interest in limiting immigration.

“The focus on Venezuela seems to be through the lens of immigration,” Depp said of Trump’s second term.

Processing Venezuelan immigration

The question remains whether Trump will work with Maduro to achieve his goals.

Trump is reportedly facing pressure from energy lobbyists to resume diplomatic relations with oil-rich Venezuela.

Experts say Trump will need Maduro’s cooperation if he hopes to implement his plan “Mass deportation” plan.Millions of illegal immigrants were expelled from the United States.

Venezuela has refused to accept deportation flights from the United States since last February, after the North American country Re-imposed Some of the sanctions imposed by the Trump era on its economy.

Citing anonymous sources, The Washington Post reported in November that Maduro’s government may be willing to resume deportation flights under Trump — but only if Trump offers to do so. Economic relief in contrast.

Supporters of the Maduro government Argue Which Easing US sanctions It can help stabilize the country and reduce mass migration.

But Tamara Tarasiuk Brunner, a Venezuela expert at the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington-based think tank focused on Latin America, casts doubt on that argument. She believes the root cause of instability in Venezuela is Maduro himself.

“People will not stay in Venezuela because of the increase in oil production and the influx of money [when] “There are no guarantees that this money will reach people who are suffering,” Tarasiuk said.

She noted that Venezuela’s disputed presidential elections on July 28 coincided with an increased desire to leave.

Venezuela’s National Electoral Council, controlled by Maduro’s allies, declared victory within hours of the polls closing, without providing the usual distribution of votes at the constituency level.

This lack of transparency has led to mistrust and accusations of voter fraud against the Maduro government. Protests erupted, and Maduro responded by unleashing a wave of repression that left 28 people dead and nearly 2,000 arrested.

In August, as the crackdown unfolded, a poll by research firm Meganalysis showed that about 40% of Venezuelans felt they might leave the country.

Tarasiuk said that this political crisis explains the reasons for the migration of Venezuelans to other places.

“People are leaving again for political reasons,” she added. “The expectation is that migration will increase further after January 10 if there is no transfer of power.”

“Turn the page on elections”

The disputed presidential race has also left Maduro himself grappling with the political repercussions.

The lack of transparency in the elections has been widely criticized, even by Maduro’s allies. For example, left-leaning leaders in both Colombia and Brazil initially refused to acknowledge Maduro’s victory.

Instead, they joined international calls for the number of votes to be distributed.

Colombia recently announced that a representative would attend Maduro’s inauguration in January, which analysts said was a move to maintain diplomatic relations between the two neighboring countries.

Under diplomatic pressure, the Maduro administration released hundreds of detained protesters, and announced last week that it would review the cases of dozens more.

With Maduro increasingly isolated, Trump’s return to the US presidency may pose an additional challenge.

Depp said the Venezuelan leader’s decision to release some prisoners may be a sign that he may be willing to compromise with Trump. But Maduro may also be motivated by a desire to repair his public image.

“I think what matters most to Maduro is turning the page on the July 28 elections and retaining some kind of power in relation to the international community,” Depp said.

She pointed to the October 2023 Barbados Agreement as evidence of Maduro’s willingness to negotiate, even with his powerful international rivals.

That year, Maduro concluded an agreement with the current US president, Democrat Joe Biden, to ease some sanctions and allow limited oil sales from Venezuela, in exchange for free and fair elections.

The United States eventually considered it so Venezuela has failed One of the terms of the Barbados Agreement. But Depp said the deal itself could be seen as a hopeful sign.

“If we have learned anything after signing the Barbados Agreement, it is that Maduro is willing but not necessarily interested in isolation.”

Currently, anticipation is growing over Maduro’s inauguration, which experts say could lead to renewed unrest.

But despite the outcry, Maduro has given no indication that he will step down. Trump may continue his campaign to loosen Maduro’s grip on power in his second term.

“Maduro and his government have decided to wait and see,” Dib said.