• President Trump is scheduled to announce a new tariff on April 2It is possible that commercial tensions with the main allies and increase the impact on market fluctuations. Wide penalties for “all countries” are now on the table. Analysts predict the sector levels by 15 % through the main commercial partners in the United States, with potential consequences for stagnation and inflation.

“Editing Day” is upon us. On Wednesday, April 2, the Trump administration is expected to issue a set of new customs tariffs ads, which are likely to climb the growing trade tensions with some of America’s nearest allies.

actuallyPresident Trump The market fluctuation caused By imposing a tariff on neighboring countries Canada, Mexico and two 10 % customs tariffs on China. The increases were also placed on all cars and Steel and aluminum products.

But it is not over: this weekThe Oval Office warned that the additional penalties will Start in “All Countries” instead of A specific list.

Markets, may not be surprised, volatile before advertising, which can escalate the trade war. At the time of writing this report, S& P500 decreased by 2.4 % During the past five dayswhile Dao Jones also decreased by 1.4 % during the same period.

Many of this sale occurred during the weekend, when President Trump assumed his threat to “all” countries as well as geopolitical tensions with criticism of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Before announcing this week, here is a set of political threats to President Trump’s response and Wall Street’s reaction.

Trait

While President Trump previously said he loves the “gentle European countries” that make up the European Union, he mistakenly claimed that the commercial bloc was created for the purpose of destroying the United States

In OctoberPresident Trump highlighted the trade deficit of America with the European Union in relation to cars – an issue that already addresses vehicle tax – and “agricultural products” that he said that the European Union is not accepted by the states.

Trump said at the time, they will have to pay a “large price.”

This threat has been increased Even during the past weekWith President Trump saying that if the European Union and Canada began working on a deal that has not been revealed to benefit themselves while harming American interests, they will face sanctions “much greater than the plan now.”

asEuropean Union – American The second largest import Partner – can represent the largest shift in the commercial policy that has been announced On April 2.

previously, German bank A survey of 400 analysts found that The medium -term expectation of the European Union definitions will settle by 18 %Although this could be after a period of negotiation with a rise began at the beginning higher.

“We expect the administration to use a broader set of standards for the country’s tariff numbers, including the size of commercial imbalances, customs tariff teams, value -added tax, digital service taxes, and non -tendency barriers,” Economic Books at UBS Arend Kapteyn luck This morning.

“Given that the time required to analyze all this correctly is not consistent with the deadline on April 1, this week is likely to be a starting point for negotiations,” Kapin continued.

The basic issue of UBS is a 15 % tariff on the 15 largest commercial partners in America.

China

Despite the 60 % tariff for China as it is the main talk of President Trump’s campaign, so far, Begin has only had two 10 % increase each.

Of course, this was fired A penalty against fatal drug flowLike fentanel – in the United States of China. However, President Trump’s attempt to rebalance with China may lead to more sanctions this week.

“We have been formed in 60 % of the customs tariffs of China because this is what Trump has done, but it is clear that there is room for the customs tariff less,” Kapin added.

After declaring its mutual tariff, China was noticeably good despite the increasing tensions with the United States

Bank of America Economists, Helen Chiao and Anna Chu, have identified a number of factors to enhance market morale. In a note I saw luckThe couple wrote: “China still managed to spread an increase of 2.3 % on an annual basis in exports in January to the period from January … but even before the macro data is increased … it has already regained the morale of investors.

“The meetings of factors, including: 1) plays a technical penetration (i.e. Deepseek-R1 and the rise of human robots); 2) The in advance success of the Chinese animation movie Ne Zha 2; and 3) The symposium between the eleventh president and technology leaders on February 17 which provided a measure of reassurance about the improvement in occurrence.”

Russia

President Trump also threatened more economic sanctions against Russia if the ceasefire talks in the United States are not moving forward.

President Trump told the NBC News on Sunday: “If we are not able from Russia and Russia to conclude a deal about stopping bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think this was Russia’s mistake – which may not be so – but if I believe that this was Russia’s mistake, I will put a secondary tariff on oil, on all oil that comes out of Russia,” President Trump told the NBC News on Sunday.

It has doubled: “This will be that if you bought oil from Russia, you cannot do business in the United States. There will be a 25 % tariff for all oil, a tariff from 25 to 50 points on all oil.”

Global tariff?

yetTrump targeted a specific country with its tariff levels instead From announcing a comprehensive increase in all imports In the United States

The so -called global tariff was highlighted as It is possible that the recession and inflation before Jpmorgan Chase CEO Jimmy DamonHowever It seems increasingly likely with Trump’s talk about the policy of “all countries”.

During the weekend, Goldman Sachs increased the assumptions of customs tariffs, for every note by economists Ronnie Walker, Elciec Phillips, and David Merikli.

“We expect President Trump to announce the 15 % mutual definitions in all trading partners in the United States on April 2, although we expect products and country to be excluded ultimately in addition to the average tariff rate in the United States to 9PP.” luck Read.

The trio also increased from the basic inflation forecasts of PCE by 0.5PP to 3.5 % on an annual basis, and the recession is made from 20 % to 35 %.

In late January, Terry Weizmann, a Global FX strategic and Rate strategic expert in Macquarie, suggested that the global tariff at the sector level is more likely than threats against allied countries because “the permanent global tariff at the sector level is more consistent with the World Trade Organization bases than the country’s definitions, and therefore they are contagious with the legal challenge.”

He added in the note that I saw luck: “For Trump, the customs tariff also serves the necessity of general quality to increase revenues for the American government, and therefore it may justify the reduction of corporate tax rates, which is an element in an important agenda for management.”

This story was originally shown on Fortune.com

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2025-03-31 10:55:00