Beirut, Lebanon – The recent clashes along the border attracted Lebanon Syria in its armies and threatening to disrupt the efforts of the two governments to establish their authority.

The clashes seem to have calmed down, as a ceasefire agreement was reached between the two parties late Monday, March 17.

Experts and analysts say that the clashes are related to the new reality on the ground, where Bashar Assad is no longer in power and The influence of Hezbollah may diminish.

Foggy limits

After Hezbollah’s intervention in the Syrian war, it extended its authority on both sides of the border.

But after Bashar al -Assad’s regime collapsed amazingly in early December, which led to the cutting of a major supply line because of Hezbollah through the random Israeli war on Lebanon, a conflict appeared.

“[With] “The fall of the Assad regime, the weakening of Hezbollah, the Syrian-based border-and the areas of influence on its length-.”

Lebanon’s borders with Syria are 375 km (233 miles), and despite local and international efforts over the years, they are still not specified.

The rugged terrain, associated with the historical absence of the Lebanese state, made mature smuggling – especially in the region where the clashes occurred.

“This section of the border-like the Lebanese border, the entire Syria-has become increasingly unclear during the Syrian war,” Tammkijian said. “Hezbollah expanded to become Syria through social, economic and military networks, which facilitates all of the illegal border activities.”

On the Syrian side, the fourth section of Maher Al -Assad armored smuggling operations with crime unions in Lebanon, according to Caroline Rose, director of the strategic blind spot wallet at Think Think Institute Institute Institute.

Crime unions are often operated by members of the strong tribes in the northeast, who play an integral roles in local politics and social affairs and have built relations with Hezbollah since the establishment of the group in the 1980s, and often they have interrelated or common interests.

“They now find themselves without a major ally and a source of protection across the border,” Rose said, noting that since the fall of the Assad regime, the fourth armored group can no longer work.

The new governments have reached power in Lebanon and Syria, and each of them talked about the need to demarcate the border. Experts said that this would disrupt the smuggling methods for both crime unions and Hezbollah who benefit from the current chaos along the unlimited borders.

“These clashes indicate a struggle for the main authority not only between criminal unions and clans that participate in an illegal smuggling over road control, but a greater struggle with the state forces with the growth of their ability in Syria and Lebanon, respectively.”

Declaration of engagement

The last round started on Saturday, March 15th, after three Syrian soldiers were killed. Conditions of how they died, however, the descent is done.

The interim government in Syria claims that Hezbollah fighters entered the Syrian territories, installed an ambush and kidnapped three soldiers near the Zita Dam, returned them to Lebanese territory, and executed them.

A group of Hezbollah militia, and via an ambush, kidnapped three members of the Syrian Arab Army on the Syrian -Lebanese border near the Zeta Dam, west of Homs, before they took them to Lebanese territory and liquidated them in a field liquidation. pic.twitter.com/i3eq0diiqhh

– The Syrian Arab News Agency – SANA (@sanaajel) March 16, 2025

“A group of Hezbollah militia has an ambush and kidnapped three members of the Syrian Arab Army on the Syrian -Syrian border near the Zita Dam, west of Hums, before they were transferred to Lebanese territory and immediately implementing them.”

The bodies of the three men were returned to Syria via the Lebanese Red Cross.

Hezbollah denied any involvement in their deaths, saying in a statement, “It has no connection with any events that occur inside the Syrian territories.”

The Lebanese media reported that the three men entered Lebanese territory and clashed with people from the local tribes – some of whom had relations with Hezbollah – who were afraid to attack.

The Minister of Information in Lebanon, Paul Morkos, said that the three Syrian men were smugglers, while some local Lebanese media said that they were smugglers from loyalty to the Syrian group that was recently resolved Haya, HTS (HTS). Many senior officials in Syria, including its new leader, Ahmed Al -Sharra, comes from the group.

What is known is that the Syrian Ministry of Defense put the blame on Hezbollah and sent the forces to the border in the Homes province, on the other side of northeastern Lebanon, where they began bombing the Lebanese cities.

The crowds of the Syrian Arab Army, before heading to expel the Hezbollah militia from the village of Hosh al -Sayyid Ali in the countryside of Al -Qusayr, west of Homs.#SANA pic.twitter.com/7fr2kiy3kj

– The Syrian Arab News Agency – SANA (@sanaajel) March 17, 2025

[Translation: Syrian Arab Army forces prepare to expel Hezbollah militia from the village of Hawsh al-Sayyid Ali in the Qusayr countryside, west of Homs.]

The hostilities killed seven Lebanese citizens and 10 Syrian soldiers, while 52 Laban was wounded. Others were also wounded on the Syrian side, including some journalists guaranteed with the Syrian army.

When the clashes began, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun sent forces to the area and ordered them to re -fire.

The dynamics of the new borders

The sudden presence of the state – whether in Lebanon and Syria – may also pose a threat to its Kzb, which experts have said that their interest in maintaining the situation is at the chaotic borders.

Marcel Balokaji, a former general of the dean who supervised the Lebanese Army’s border committee, said to the island that most of the group’s financing comes from a smuggling by local tribes.

“This is camouflaged,” Balukji told Al -Jazeera about Hezbollah’s denial that they were involved. Balukaji said that some of the tribes that clashed with the Syrian forces are likely to be a “subcontractor” by Hezbollah to preserve the chaotic area, so that the group can continue to take advantage of smuggling.

But the group’s impact on the brutal bombing campaign witnessed by Israel, which resulted in the killing of many party officials, including the leader for a long time, Hassan Nasrallah, and a decisive ally across the border.

Some experts believe that the tribes can abandon Hezbollah from their own interests, and to reach agreements with the Lebanese army and the new Syrian authorities.

Hezbollah is also seen as ostracized by the new government in Syria because of its long support and intervention on the Assad side, which has now been done.

“The reasons behind these clashes may differ, but what is clear is that the borders and dynamics across the border are reshaped,” Tammkagian said.

“This is just the beginning of this process.”