With Azerbaijan in mourning this week Christmas Day plane crash Which claimed the lives of 38 people, political scientist Farkhad Mammadov cast his mind back to November 2020.

Then, on the last day of the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, Azerbaijan shot down a Russian helicopter near its border, while it was in Armenian airspace.

“Immediately, the president of Azerbaijan called the president of Russia, took the blame on himself and the country, made an apology, and then there was the punishment of the guilty and the payment of compensation,” said Mammadov, who is the director. Baku-based Center for South Caucasus Studies.

Four years later, the roles have been reversed, more or less.

On December 25, Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 took off from Baku bound for Grozny, Chechnya, carrying 67 passengers and crew. As the plane approached Grozny in Russian airspace, it appeared to come under fire from the ground and changed its course eastward, crashing near Aktau in western Kazakhstan. Only 29 people survived.

Although Russian officials initially speculated that the plane struck a flock of birds or an oxygen tank on board exploded, the damage appeared consistent with damage from surface-to-air missiles used by Russia. Russian air defense. On Saturday, the Russian President Vladimir Putin apologized for the “tragic incident” but did not directly take responsibility on behalf of Russia, claiming that Ukrainian drones were in the area.

However, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev demanded For Russia to formally accept responsibility and pay compensation to survivors – reflecting anger in Azerbaijan over Moscow’s handling of the disaster, and the expectation that Putin will be as frank about what happened as Aliyev was in 2020.

“Azerbaijan expects the same thing now, which we have not seen yet,” Mammadov said. “If the Russian side chooses the path of a partial apology, we expect subsequent apologies, sanctions and compensation in the later stages of the investigation into the ongoing case.”

For many in Azerbaijan, it’s not just what hit the plane, but how Russia responded to the emergency.

Laila, a Baku native, told Al Jazeera: “What makes this situation even more terrifying is what happened after the plane was shot down.” “Permission to land on Russian territory was denied. This is the most horrific part of the incident and something that people cannot forgive.”

Azerbaijani officials claimed that the pilots were denied permission to make an emergency landing in Russia, forcing them to change their course to Aktau, via the Caspian Sea.

If the plane had been allowed to land in Russia after the error, those lives might have been saved. “Instead, the plane was sent to Kazakhstan, a decision made by heartless and incompetent individuals,” Leila added. “It is this lack of humanity and accountability that infuriates and destroys people the most.”

But could the fate of Flight 8243 also damage Russia’s relations with Azerbaijan?

As a former Soviet republic, relations between oil-rich Azerbaijan and its massive northern neighbor are complex – but, unlike, say, the Baltic states, not exactly hostile.

Azerbaijan gained independence briefly after the collapse of the Russian Empire at the end of World War I. But in 1920, the Red Army invaded Azerbaijan, handing Azerbaijan back to Moscow’s flank for the next seven decades.

The first few years after Azerbaijan’s independence in 1991 were marked by uncertainty, with two coup attempts occurring in Baku. Supported By the Kremlin. Russia also tried to balance friendly relations with both Azerbaijan and Armenia, with which Azerbaijan has been involved in a bitter conflict over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region since the late Soviet era. At the same time as selling arms to both sides, Moscow has tried to act as a mediator and has deployed peacekeeping forces in Karabakh.

These peacekeeping forces stood as Azerbaijani forces Karabakh was quickly overrun in September last year, causing almost the entire Armenian population to flee, despite Armenia being a fellow member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a NATO-like alliance led by Russia. Russian peacekeepers finally withdrew from Karabakh in April this year as Baku consolidated its control.

In general, regardless of tensions over the plane crash, relations between Russia and Azerbaijan are good, Mammadov said. Azerbaijan has not taken sides in Moscow’s war on Ukraine, and it is Russia’s largest trading partner in the South Caucasus, where it occupies a crucial transportation route for goods heading to and from Iran. Likewise, Moscow is important as an economic partner for Baku.

“As a trade and economic partner [for Azerbajian]Political expert and lawmaker Rasim Musabeov said: “In first place is Italy, in second place is Türkiye, and in third place is Russia.”

He added: “In this sense, trade and economic relations are important for Azerbaijan and Russia.” “The majority of Azerbaijani planes fly to Russia, at least before this incident. The largest Russian community in the South Caucasus lives here, about 120,000 Russians. He added that nearly one million Azerbaijanis live in Russia.

Musabeov believes Putin must now do the right thing to help relations overcome the blow they took from the plane crash.

He said that Putin’s apology “must be followed by an analysis of this incident, punishment of the perpetrator, and payment of compensation.”

Musabeov said: “Azerbaijan is not interested in deteriorating relations with Russia.”