Russia’s future in Syria may be up for debate, and analysts widely agree that losing Syria would not mean much for Russia in material terms.

However, the Kremlin’s desire to maintain its strategic footprint across the Mediterranean and Africa – which has evolved over the past decade – is widely recognised.

During the Syrian war, Russia provided vital military and diplomatic support necessary to maintain Bashar al-Assad’s rule.

In the process, it established a major airport at Hmeimim and significantly expanded its Soviet-era naval base at Tartus, Russia’s only warm-water port.

With Syria in the hands of an administration headed by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, the future of those bases is unclear. Reports I suggest that Russia already has Partially withdrawn Its forces.

Losing the bases – vital links in the chain of influence from Moscow to the Mediterranean and to Africa – would be detrimental, leaving Russia in need of an alternative.

It is recognized that Libya, where Russia already has a presence, is the only practical alternative if Russia decides to withdraw all or some of its forces from Syria.

However, what a sudden surge in Russian military numbers might mean for turbulent Libya, as well as the implications of an enhanced Russian presence near NATO borders, remains to be seen.

Why don’t you give up and go home?

Oleg Ignatov, a senior analyst at International Crisis Management, said that expanding Russia’s presence in Africa through its positions in Syria and Libya has been a goal of Kremlin planners since around 2017, a goal that Russia “fought for” and was not prepared to give up. group.

“Russia sees Africa as one of the main arenas of competition between the current great powers,” Ignatov said.

Russia, mainly through the Kremlin-controlled military contractor Africa Corps (formerly Wagner Group)It maintains a military presence in most parts of Africa.

Currently, African Legion forces support the governments of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, all of which have severed ties with the West after recent coups.

In addition, the African Legion reportedly proved important, if ruthless, in maintaining the country’s governance Central African Republic The government as well as supporting its allies in the Sudanese army after that Moscow changed its position In the civil war in that country this year.

“It is true that the influence of Western powers on the continent may be diminishing, but the presence of other powers, such as China and Turkey, is increasing,” Ignatov said.

As such, for Kremlin planners, maintaining at least one of their positions in Libya or Syria was absolute, Ignatov told Al Jazeera.

“Libya offers Russia something unique – a foothold in both North Africa and the Mediterranean, which is ideal for projecting power into the soft areas of Europe and across the Sahel,” said Anas El-Gamati of the Sadiq Institute in Tripoli.

However, there is little evidence that eastern Libya is preparing for an influx of refugees.

Satellite images examined by Al Jazeera’s Sanad Verification Agency showed no new construction at any of the Russian-Libyan airports or any development in the port of Tobruk, an additional warm-water port that Russia was considering including within its military fold long before its counterpart’s future. In Tartous it became a matter of doubt.

“Don’t underestimate the potential of Tobruk. It hasn’t reached Tartus yet, but that’s exactly why Russia wants it. They’re not looking for what exists now. They’re looking at what they can build,” El-Gamati said.

“Remember, Tartous was not always what it is today. In addition to Tobruk and Al-Khadim Air Base [a key Russian military hub near Benghazi] Creates a powerful military complex that can challenge NATO’s southern flank.

Internal discomfort

Libya has entered into a power struggle of its own, one that could lead to the redeployment of the Russian military from Syria to North Africa.

Libya has known little stability since the 2011 revolution. It is run by two governments, which critics accuse of illegitimacy – but neither is willing to give up its territory until national elections are possible.

The last proposed election failed 11 o’clock in December 2021.

In the east he sits National stability governmentWith the support of the self-declared leader, the renegade military commander Khalifa Haftar. In the west, the internationally recognized Government of National Accord is based, led by fighters Prime Minister Abdul Hamid DabaibaHe was appointed interim in 2021 and has been in power ever since.

A September confrontation between the two powers A solution on the independence of the central bank was eventually reached through lengthy negotiations that he supervised Mediators from the United Nations.

Buoyed by the success of that mediation and the holding of municipal elections in November, the United Nations last week announced new negotiations aimed at holding the first national vote since the failure of 2021.

UN envoy to Libya Stephanie Currie told the Security Council that the proposal would help the country “overcome the current political stalemate and move…towards national elections and renewing the legitimacy of Libya’s outdated institutions.”

However, according to analysts such as Tarek Megerisi of the European Council on Foreign Relations, the establishment of a major Russian military center in eastern Libya would give its ally Haftar a significant voice in the negotiations that he could withdraw from without cost.

“If Russia moves fully to the east, Haftar will be able to do almost anything he wants,” Megerisi said, describing how Western powers would then try to appease Haftar in the hopes of pulling him away from Russia.

He added that the negotiations proposed by the United Nations “will not be negotiations.”

“Haftar…can dictate terms. The matter will lead to the appointment of a new prime minister, a president who will remain in office only until his inevitable dispute with Haftar. Then what?

“More bullets,” he concluded.

Geopolitical maneuvers

Haftar remains a target of Western diplomatic outreach despite the possibility that he might offer Russia, the West’s geopolitical rival, a safe haven a few hundred nautical miles from NATO’s shores.

“NATO’s threat is not exaggerated. It is an understatement,” El-Gamaty said.

“It’s not just about military bases. It’s about Russia creating pressure points on migration routes, energy supplies and trade lanes in Europe. Libya’s position makes it an ideal platform for hybrid warfare,” he said.

In recent years, despite the established partnership between the eastern government and Putin, several Western officials have met with Haftar in an attempt, analysts say, to “rehabilitate” his reputation in the West.

In August, leaders of United States Africa Command, European Union, UK and Italy Each of them paid money to Haftar, describing their visits as aimed at urging dialogue, but more often, seeking his help in curbing the conflict. Irregular migration flowBoth trade Haftar and his Russian allies have been accused To arm against Europe.

Al-Megresi said: “The West’s need to rehabilitate Haftar has no meaning.”

“He’s basically a Russian agent. “It has been like this since at least 2020,” when Russia entered Libya Civil war in favor of Haftar.

“Since then, his original army has been largely disbanded, replaced by an imperial guard led by his sons. He is greatly distracted by internal difficulties and relies on numerous criminal enterprises… to maintain his rule,” Al-Megresi said.

“For the Kremlin, it is ideal,” he said.