• All indicators of the main US Securities Market You will need to have strong ends of the year just to finish an apartment. While this is not impossible for the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, and the DaoUsually this happens only in the years when the market is in a state of rise, and does not suffer from stagnation as it is now.

Since President Donald Trump declared his sweeping Customs tariff policy More than a week ago and the global markets have been sent to turmoil, the American stock market has lost trillion in wealth. All major indicators such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones Industrial Mepality declined from the year after the markets interacted very negatively with the new Trump policy.

The main sale caused by the new Trump policy reverse What was formed to be another good year in the market. Investors and analysts expected the US stock market to continue to provide strong returns, even if it slowed down the pace of setting the record for the previous two years. In fact, Trump’s election brought a new wave of optimism in the market, as initially stocks Rise On the back of what many considered as a pro -business president.

Now the opposite is true. The markets are drowned on the back of Trump’s uncertainty into the American economy since his return to the White House.

To compensate for the losses you have incurred so far this year, all the indicators of the main American stocks – S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow – must gather to an extent that it has not been facilitated, but it happened only in good years.

However, a strong year in 2025 seems unlikely. Since the collapse of the Trump tariff ads, most of the main Wall Street banks Reference Their annual expectations for the economy to reflect Continuous stagnation. Some of them Banks He even called for a recession The stock market segment also coincides with Bond markets nozzle and Value reduction From the US dollar.

Until Friday, the S&P 500 index decreased by 8.8 % of the year-a flagrant reflection of the Rip-Roaring gains in 2023 and 2024, which represents together the best Extension for two years Since 1998.

In order to turn this loss and end of the year, the S&P 500 will need 9.4 % of its closing price on April 11 to December 31. In this case, investors will not lose any money, but they have never acquired a cinema.

A similar or better growth rate from April 11 to the end of the year is not completely out of the S&P 500. In fact, it happened 22 times since the modern version of the index was created in 1957. While this looks like good news, investors should not be very fast. S & P 500 grows only 9.4 % or more than April 11 on the emerging years of the bull, not during the lower markets like 2025, according to the data provided by Assetmark Manager, Wealth Manager and luckAccounts. The worst performance such as this year, 2016, was a total annual return of 12 %. Best year, 1958, a annual return achieved 43.4 %. Over the course of the 22 years that fits these standards, the average annual return was 27 %.

In other words, the S&P 500 from April to December rises when the market is torn, not when it is zero -zero. 

There is certainly a noticeable precedent for the market crisis early in the year that turns into a year of major gains. In 2020, it was PandeMic Covid-19, and the S&P 500 was the best performance on April 11 to December, with 34.6 % during that time period. This led to a total annual return of 18.4 %. However, these declines in the market were caused by various reasons. In 2020, the markets’ reaction to the spread of a very contagious disease was not yet treatment, while this time it was responding to a trade policy implemented by an elected official.

Enjoy the potential recovers in NASDAQ and Dow with the same S&P 500 dynamics. It needs to rise at a reasonable rate, but it only happens when the stock market flourishes, not when you try to revive itself.

Analysts now expect the stock market performance in 2025 worse than they expected at the beginning of the year. In December 2024, Wall Street had the consensus of S&P 500 average goal of 6,625, according to data from Lseg. This would have meant a 12.9 % increase in 2025 based on where the S&P 500 was opened on January 2.

Last week, a large number of banks reduced their expectations for S&P 500 much lower than the mediator since the beginning of the year. BMO reviewed its bit upward invitation from 6700 to 6100. Goldman Sachs reduced its expectations twice this year, from 6500 to 6200 and then again to 5700. The second review of Goldman means a 2.8 % loss this year. UBS and RBC also expect this year to lose.

A year to date, NASDAQ 100 decreased by 11.1 %. The decline is 180 from where the general index started, up to 22,000 in February. NASDAQ 100 will need to rise by 12.9 % to finish the year in which it started. It is not a scarcity of seeing 12.9 % from April to December. It has happened 20 times since the creation of NASDAQ 100 in 1985, according to ASSETMARK data and luckAccounts. But again, this only happens in positive years. It was the worst year with at least 12.9 % in the time frame, 1992, an annual return of 8.9 %. It was the best return to the 1999 batch, which achieved 102 % return.

Dow, who spared the worst accident, decreased by 5.1 % in 2025. To end the year without loss, Dow will need a 5.4 % increase for the rest of the year. DOW’s historical performance may provide investors a slice of hope. Of 35 times since 1958 when at least 5.4 % from April 11 to December has grown, one year has not ended. In 1984, DOW grew by 7.1 % over that period, while ending the year with a total loss of -3.7 %. But for the largest part, the previous 35 years that suit our criteria coincide with strong growth. The average Dow was 18.6 %. It was the best in 1975, which achieved a return of 38.2 % for this year.

This story was originally shown on Fortune.com

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2025-04-13 15:40:00