On Wednesday, the State Court for Bosnia and Herzegovina issued One year prison sentence To the Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik and banned him from holding a six -year political position. The court found that Dudik is guilty of taking action in July 2023 for the purpose of obstructing the implementation of the decisions of the higher actor in Bosnia, the Supreme International Peace Envoy in the Balkan country.

The Office of the Higher Representative (OHR) oversees the implementation of the civil aspects of the Dayton Peace Agreements, which were signed in 1995 and ended the war in Bosnia. This office has been directed for approximately three decades due to a series of European officials. The current OHR president is Christian Schmidt, a former politician of Germany. Dudik has been at odds with Schmidt since the latter arrived in Bosnia in 2021.

For local and international observers, the court ruling is an interesting development and uncertainty in Heralds. Dudik arrived in power as president of Republika Srpska in 2006 in a period of continuous and continuous crises for Bosnia. For the best part of the past two decades, it enables himself and politician entityy who currently heads him while undermining and cavity of institutions at the state level.

Compared to his record of obstructing the progress of Bosnia, failure to adhere to the provisions of the Bosnian Constitutional Court, rejecting genocide and throwing repeated insults in Bosnia, confronting Dodik with OHR may seem a political crime of less size. However, the ruling, especially the ban imposed on his political life for a period of six years, may transfer the beginning of the political fall of Dodk – or a renewed attempt by him to push the Bosnia to the brink of the abyss.

In response to the issuance of the rulings, the Republika SRPSKA association approved a document late on Wednesday, rejected the court ruling and the Sulaidt Authority. Serbian President Alexander Fotic, immersed in his problems at home amid increasing protests, flew on the same day to Banga Luca to meet Dodek. Dodik’s lawyer indicated that he would appeal the verdict. Meanwhile, the Republika Srpska Association has adopted a legislation project aimed at preventing judicial institutions and judicial institutions at the state level from exercising sovereignty in this part of Bosnia.

What awaits us is more uncertainty. Political stability in Bosnia may be in the coming weeks and months, commenting in the balance, as the country awaits the appeal process that is revealed.

As things are currently standing, Dodik is strong in Republika Srpska. It controls his party – the Independent Social Democratic Alliance (SNSD) – and carries the influence on power tools in both Republika SRPSKA and at the state level through those appointed in many institutions. His ability to generate a deeper crisis is real.

On the other hand, he also exceeded his political welcome. Dodik has been a key player in the Serbian Bosnian policy for nearly two decades. Its dominance in politics and the media means that an entire generation is currently registered in university studies that no other political leader knew. For many Bosnian citizens, it has become synonymous with strange crises, conflicts and rhetoric.

While media reports indicate Dodik’s support from VCIC, the Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Urban and Croatian President Zoran Milanovich depends on Dodik’s political future on how the Bosnian state institutions as well as the depth of his support base respond. In other words, his future depends on what is happening on the ground in Bosnia.

For years, Dudik managed to generate crises and escalate to extract concessions in exchange for decline. Then he continued to repeat the pattern. This has prompted some politicians in Sarajevo and many foreign officials to be ready to surrender to your Dodak for years for stability. As a result, Dodek accumulated power and resources and offered an increasingly arrogance.

A government platform has been delayed in the institutions of the Bosnian state to implement decisions and stand before Dodek long ago. This is new for Dodik and it may be a major test of how ready to go and the amount of support that is already his orders.

In the coming weeks and months, it is possible that three factors that are revealed, and, accordingly, Dodik’s political future: the Bosnian State Court, the rule of power in Dodek and the support of VCIC – or its absence.
If the Appeals Chamber refuses to appeal Dodik and reaffirms the ruling-especially the political ban-the Bosnian leader will be at risk, and this will be another confrontation with the Bosnian institutions at the state level. The ability of state institutions and their willingness to impose the court ruling will be very important.

However, if the court cancels the ruling – including due to the potential external pressure, fearing that the situation in the Bosnian cycle is outside the scope of control – Dodik will demand victory and feel the encouragement.

Second, Dudik will measure his weak support inside his party and his wheels of power. The increasing cracks within its authority base will be a sign that the court’s rulings undermine its support. However, the legislation issued by the Bosnian entity in Republika SRPSKA on Friday prevents the national and judicial police from its territory, the Serbian leader of Bosnian still has loyal supporters and a great contract for Republika Srpska institutions. Dodik can use this legislation to raise the bet and work as a bargaining chip. He did this before.

Third, as things are currently, Vocic’s interest in its local protests in Serbia means that it may be less prepared and has less resources to transform tension in Bosnia.

Moreover, as with other long -term political leaders, the signs of the political weakness of your Dodak may encourage the political aspirations of Burotris or close partners to replace it. It will not be surprising if the tremors were taken inside his party.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the editorial island.