Good morning. The “transformation of the Vippe” that we wrote in the past A few Messages continued yesterday. Treasury revenues have decreased in both the short and long limb from the curve, with real returns, rather than inflation expectations, which occupy most of the declines. Prices for this year continued to rise; A complete reduction in the rate of 25 Basis points is added in less than two weeks. The shares of large technology, especially Tesla, were a hard day. More morale of the gloomy consumer appeared, this time from the Conference Council, which also reported high inflation expectations. Can anything put an end to bad news? Well, the NVIDIA explosion report may make a trick, and as it happens, the captain of the artificial intelligence chip is released by this afternoon. And if the numbers of Nafidia are disappointment? It is better not to think about it. Our correspondent email: Robert.armstrong@ft.com and Iden.reiter@ft.com.

Is the shift in elegance real? Put your bets

The markets are somewhat anxious about the evidence that growth slows down and inflation is not. Do we see a downward turning point – or is modern data just a flash? The numbers have been constantly bad in recent times, but on the other hand, Trump’s policies that were expected to pay a strong economy and market support – tax cuts and the abolition of objective restrictions – yet.

In a moment like this, the prediction procedure is useful. Mental discipline is forced. So let’s try to predict the end of this year, for two decisive variables: inflation and unemployment. Will it be higher or less than it is now? That is: Will the economy cool down, as modern data indicates, which leads to raising unemployment? Will the definitions and enforce the migration will be re -inflation? For a long time, readers will remember that we would like to think in terms of matrices. Here he goes:

We strongly want to hear readers about what you think about the possibilities of squares through D (as always: always: Robert.armstrong@ft.com). Remember to summarize 100!

For the record, Rob believes that inflation is likely (60 percent/40 percent) stuck in or higher than its current level, and that the labor market is unlikely to remain very narrow. This makes the following possibilities: 24 percent A, 36 % B, 16 percent and 24 % d. That is, high inflation is still a greater risk of high unemployment, but the worst in all worlds – stagnation – real possibility.

Housing

bearish Commentators She pointed to softening the American housing market as a major contributor to the negative transformation of Vepe, and threatening to grow in the future. Fair enough: current homes sales decreased by 30 percent from December to January, the new housing building (“beginnings”) decreased by 10 percent, and the new building permits granted were flat and completing new houses – that is, add -ons to the stock – were identified:

Although any of this is welcome news, the housing market situation is not much worse than that in OctoberWhen we wrote last time. The high mortgage rates continue to strangle the demand. Inventory is very high. Prices do not decrease enough to bring buyers:

What changed is expectations. Although the mortgage rates today are in place in October, they jumped between them, which raises concern in the market:

Although the mortgage rates have declined a little recently, HomeBoilder shares have decreased steadily for five months:

There is more than the shares’ decrease in mortgage rates. House builders usually see sales receipt in the spring, but this may not be coming. From Rick Palacius in John Burns Consultant:

Home builders enter this season with a lot of permanent stock. Hope was for sales to accelerate with sales. . . But home builders start from the gas a little, because they realize that the spring will not be strong [originally] expected.

There are other concerns to build homes on the horizon. According to Troy Ludtka at SMBC Nikko Securities America, “Many home builders rely on unreliable work”; President Donald Trump’s policies can make immigration to complete new and more expensive new houses. The definitions, especially on the woods from Canada, can be raised, the costs of inputs, either by suppressing the demand or forcing home builders to accept smaller margins in the projects they have already started.

But as I noticed Palacius as not available, this was “flattening, not falling from the abyss.” Home builders were already retreating, and many have strengthened their supply chains since the epidemic to circumvent some definitions. The greater withdrawal will not be catastrophic for the American economy. Yes, residential investment is a factor for economic growth, and slow residential investment has been weight on GDP growth in the last quarters. But while the news from the housing market is not good, it often looks.

((Reich))

One good reading

[Crosses legs]

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