Wall Street is already looking at what is expected to be the slower in America in quarterly profits in one year, and instead focuses on a number rarely embodies the lights: capital expenses.

Since the tariff system run by President Donald Trump, it keeps investors wondering what will happen after that, they turn their attention to the speed with which companies that drive the economy spend their business. Hope is that their position on large expenditures, such as real estate or major machines, will provide clarity in how to see the economy.

“I don’t think companies can spend money at a time like this,” said Scott Laden, chief investment official in Horizen Investments. “It is not an environment in which you can work as usual, so it becomes very conservative. It is a waiting and monitoring position.”

Early signs confirm Laden’s thinking. This week, JB Hunt Transport Services Inc. FEDEX in the meantime , United Airlines Holdings Two company developedPossible profit scenarios-If there is a recession and another if it is avoided-but in both cases its long-term investments were less than the previous expectations.

Paul Christopher, head of the Global Investment Strategy at Wales Vargo Investment Institute. “We look very carefully at the guidelines that companies come out, especially from industries and materials.”

Parents build

Recent economic polls add pessimism. Data from federal reserve banks In Philadelphia, New York, Riccoon and Dallas, all show that manufacturers’ plans to spend on capital decreased in the first quarter. March NFIB Wiping the optimism of small business Which usually has a supportive bias for the republic-less than an average of 51 years. and A poll by the CEO Earlier this month was found that only 26 % of 329 corporate leaders who participated are planning to increase their capital expenses, a decrease from 36 % in March and 56 % in January.

At the same time, in generalIndustrial production decreasedIn March for the first time in four months. Economic model from Goldman Sachs Group I found inc. The uncertainty in the highest policy and the most tight financial conditions is likely to have a four -percentage process on the annual semester growth in capital expenditures.

“It will be difficult to provide guidance in this quarter and difficulty confidence,” said the departure of my friend, the chief strategy in Newbreger Berman. “The company’s guidelines are related when they have a vision, but now no one has a vision.”

Investors were already their eyes on spending on the largest companies in the S&P 500, known as The Magnificent Seven, whichPour billionsIn developing artificial intelligence functions while driving market gains over the past two years. Those companies – alphabet a company., Amazon.com inc. , apple a company., Definition platforms a company., Microsoft Corp, Nafidia Company and Timing Company – It is expected to continue spending on developing artificial intelligence this year, but Microsoft’sSuddenTo stop work on Ohio data centers, it shows that doubts about the value of these expenses appear.

Trump’s tariff is also expected to affect spending by large technology companies, which are at the heart of the global economy. If the trade war leads to stagnation, their spending on artificial intelligence is at risk.

“I expect executive presidents throughout the country playing what they will do if there is a recession, as it is retreating, and this is the place where artificial intelligence spends.” Northwest of mutual Wealth Management.

Meanwhile, profits next week from heavy weight manufacturing Catpeberler a company., General Electric Company and Boeing Co. , Beheemoth at & T Dao You must offer inc. Read whether the major American companies are outside the wonderful seven investing in growth.

Most weak companies

The economic uncertainty that you motivatedTrump -non -coherent tariff plansBad for all companies. But analysts and strategists have also been the most vulnerable companies in the densely capital industries. He added that the manufacturers of computers, electronics, devices, machines, petroleum products and chemicals will have the most dark updates, and transport companies will feel the dance with the benefit of the consumer demand.

“It is likely to be the first victim in the trade war is the confidence of the CEO,” said Dean Dray, co -chair of global industrial research at RBC Capital Markets. “Once this is penetrated, you get a delay in the project and longer approval times, and this leads to cancellation and CAPEX discounts. Since what is Capex for one of them is revenue for another, there is a consequently effective effect, and you start seeing CAPEX cut on a wider scale.”

DRAY expects some manufacturers to suspend the guidance due to the uncertainty surrounding the trade. Companies like the industrial distributor Wesco International Inc. , Engineering technology provider Fortified Company and 3m He said that Scotch TAPE and Post-IT remain more disorder.

The expectations of transportation companies and logistics, which move the goods used by companies and consumers, will be decisive in viewing.

TD said: “Transport companies I think will start cutting Capex,” TD said. Queen Analyst Jason Seedel. “You will see at least moderate discounts to Capex for this year.”

Seidl pointed out that many traded truck drivers use relatively new cars. “They can easily pay a half -year -old fleet,” he said. “This is not outside the world of possibilities at all.”

However, this type of decision will extend through the supply chain, as companies that make trucks and their parts are made – like Cummins Company and Paccar Inc. – You will see orders that reach success if the two trucks are stopped on plans to upgrade truck transport fleets.

Of course, there is still a possibility that the Trump administration’s efforts to re -manufacture to the United States through the use of definitions will motivate some companies to build new factories or expand their business, which may help to compensate for at least some expected decline.

“One of the ways in favor of this administration is to do what they are trying to make people do. It is building manufacturing capabilities in some capabilities,” said Horizon Lanner. “This is a different type of virtue signal,” President’s signals. “We see that we do the things that we want to do.”

This story was originally shown on Fortune.com

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2025-04-19 20:40:00