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Your guide to what the American elections mean 2024 for Washington and the world

In normal circumstances, Cook Islands only attract attention from the honeymoon leaders, green activists and Kiwi diplomats. This is because the country of the Pacific Ocean has a security deal with New Zealand (and therefore, Western allies)-and the amazing beaches lined with the sermon threatened by the emerging seas.

But we do not live in normal times. US President Donald Trump breaks the geopolitical order after the war. This week, Mark Brown, Prime Minister of the Cook Islands, I started an investment deal With China.

The New Zealand government was loudly in terror, for fear of revenge on Trump. But it seems that the residents of Cook Island are not prepared. This Pacific Earth spots have become a strong symbol of how geopolitical sand transforms.

Since Hurricane Trump is sweeping all over the world, there are two main issues: American leaders are determined to enhance American growth at any cost, whether it is environmental, social or diplomatic; They are equally designed to use dominant force, military, financial, technology and commercial interests together.

As a result, other countries face three options: it becomes affiliated with the imperial power of America; It opposes it through an alliance with our competitors such as China and Russia; Or copy the Cook Islands and try to hedge your bets.

Some have already taken their choice. Take Nicaragua. Last month, amid Trump’s threats to invade Panama and/or expel China from its famous channel, The government of Nicaragua changed its constitution To enable building a waterway that connects the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean. This may provide a substitute for the Panama channel, and it appears that Nicaragua is multiplying in the Chinese camp.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Japanese Prime Minister, Chijo Ishiba, moved to a tribute. During a visit to Washington last week, he praised “Trump’s efforts to bring peace to the world”, and promised to invest one dollar in the United States and buy American normal gases as well.

I expect Tokyo to try soon to strengthen the yen (to cleanse the American complaints about competitive apples) and it may buy the long or permanent American treasury (to “pay” American military protection).

Meanwhile, Narendra Modi, Indian Prime Minister, It was also in Washington this weekPledge to raise our imports of liquefied natural gas and aircraft. Britain stood in America at the top of artificial intelligence in Paris.

When I recently spoke in Davos with PAM MinH Chính, Prime Minister in Vietnam, he was also studying a greeting for Trump-in an attempt to distract the US President’s attention from the fact that Vietnam now has the third largest surplus in the American bilateral goods trade (greatly because international companies may It was transferred to production there to avoid US sanctions on China).

“We are seeking to buy 50 to 100 aircraft [from the US] “And other high -tech elements,” he said, noting that he will also do “play the golf all day” with Trump in Mar Lago, “if that is good. [national] Interests, ”diplomats say he has another possible“ gift ”as well: It is said that Trump is keen to invest a large casino. If so, this may be key.

However, the Vietnam problem – like every other nation – is that Trump is now so volatile that no one knows exactly what will really guarantee safety. In terms of traders, it is impossible to “the price” in the long run – for governments and investors alike.

Consequently, there is also an increasing temptation to slip in the “Arc of the Ruler’s Swine Strategy, then go in your own way”, to martyrdom with the Bucharan coach who was once (in) fame among silk road dealers. In other words, do a performance greeting while you are taking your stakes.

In fact, this may be the only reasonable thing for most countries, according to the global capital customization project (Research site on dominant economic power This is full of useful plans that show the countries most vulnerable to the American and Chinese dominant power). The diversification of inputs, these notes, is crucial if the two countries want to increase “economic security” in a volatile world.

This hedge trend has consequences. One of them is that trade between non -American countries is swelling, Comprehensive global trade raising Volumes, regardless of Trump. Another is that supply chains Become longerIt is likely to be increasing costs. The third is that the claws of the Chinese influence are spreading nudely – even to the shores of the Pacific remotely – as Beijing appears to be a more predictable global power.

Ironically, this fly in the face of Trump’s declared desire to divide the Beijing wings. In fact, future historians may classify its full strategy as self -defeat. But it seems that the president is now convinced that his influence depends on an unpredictable way and the empire.

He may eventually realize that these tactics also create a need for hedging, specifically because no one can “pricing” peace – or trust in America. But do not bet on that. Meanwhile, we expect that praise for the flow, accompanied by fake smiles.

Gillian.tett@ft.com