Beirut, Lebanon Hezbollah mobilized thousands of its supporters from the funeral of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in an Israeli air strike in September.

The funeral on February 23 was an opportunity for the Lebanese Group to send a message: Despite the losses it experienced in the past few months, it is still strong and should not be reduced.

But analysts told Al -Jazeera that showing power does not compensate for the impact of the Israel war against Hezbollah, which witnessed a great killing of the group’s leadership and a large part of the military arsenal.

When a ceasefire was announced on November 27, Hezbollah left turbulent and exhausted.

The ceasefire stated that Hezbollah will retreat north of the Leatiani River and away from the borders of Lebanon with Israel, while Israeli forces will leave southern Lebanon and the newly empowered Lebanese army will control the south.

A few days later, Hezbollah lost one of its most important allies, the Syrian regime of Bashar al -Assad, which took place in the Al -Barq opposition attack.

He now finds herself at a crossroads.

Headed Hezbollah

“Hezbollah is in a difficult situation,” said Ayed Salami, the chief policy consultant in the Middle East and a professor of political science and international affairs at the Lebanese American University.

Before September, Hezbollah was the most influential political actor in Lebanon, according to what was reported by one of the world’s non -presented actors. It was formed to repel the Israeli invasion in the 1980s, and it has been raised against a big confrontation with Israel in 2006 and the construction of arsenal and its operating rules since then.

It was often described as a “state within the state” and also provides major services to its Muslim supporters often – a society that has been historically ignored and deficient by the Lebanese state.

A day after Hamas’s attacks on Israel in southern Israel and Israel for the genocide war on Gaza in October 2023, Hezbollah entered the battle, and attracted Israel along the border to pressure to stop attacking Gaza. It was expected to enter it a lot, given that Hezbollah’s position has long been supporting Palestine and against Israel.

The conflict escalated in September when The summons of Hezbollah and the gains of gait exploded In attacks on Israel. Israel also launched A day of air strikes On September 23 on September, at least 558 people were killed, most of them civilians. The air attacks continued, and after four days, Nasrallah was killed. Many military and religious leaders have been killed in Hezbollah since then, including behind Nasrallah Hashem Sandadin in early October.

Israel destroyed the infrastructure and homes throughout Lebanon, which targets parts of the country where Shiite Muslims live – the base of Hezbollah’s support – such as southern and eastern Lebanon and the suburbs of the southern Beirut. I invaded Lebanon in October, especially the southern destruction, where it eliminated entire villages.

Hezbollah is left weak and the inability to fight now against Israel is the same way it is used to.

“[New Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim] Qasim, Hezbollah, inherited the weakest of its predecessor Nasrallah, and it will be interesting to know whether it will be smart from the navigators, given that many of Nasrallah’s success is based on the party’s ability to present power. “

“Whether they decide to adopt a completely different methodology or not, this is what we will see in the coming months.”

A new political system and benefit from anger

Other sources of Hezbollah’s strength were the support it receives from Iran, both of which are materials through Syria and Finance, which are manifested in the social support systems that it runs and in its political representation and impact.

However, with the increase in international interest in Lebanon after the ceasefire, Parliament was encouraged to choose a new president and the prime minister in early January, and ends two years of government paralysis.

For the first time since 2008, Hezbollah and the brotherly Shiite Party, AMAL, have not been able to nominate all Shiites that gave a ministerial portfolio in the new cabinet.

“Hezbollah no longer has financial means, opening Iranian support or clear military options to resist these changes,” said Salliame.

To achieve the best in this situation, Hezbollah tried to take advantage of what it could, as KarimDdine, the Lebanese political writer and a doctorate in sociology at the University of Pittsburgh, stated on the island.

“Hezbollah’s goal today is multi -performance,” said Safieddine.

“[They want to] Develop the discontent of the Shiite community in seeking to determine its control, and find a way to move in the fact that it faces extreme financial challenges – the use of international support for the government is in one way but also when determining the location of the credit – [and] Continue to justify the carrying of weapons in the name of the weakness of the state and the ongoing Israeli violations. “

While many Lebanese displaced began to return to the south after the ceasefire, Israel used to stop Hezbollah’s attacks to continue The occupation of many villages and Enter others for the first time. The Lebanese government accused Israel of violating the conditions for a ceasefire by not withdrawing from southern Lebanon and not stopping its attacks on people and villages.

On February 18, Israel announced that it would continue to occupy At least five main points In Lebanon, but now, the Lebanese army is responsible for security in the south, and not Hezbollah – and others criticized the army for its failure to liberate the land and protect the people of the south properly.

Cash

Hezbollah promised to pay the price of reconstruction and has already began to evaluate damage and distribute funds.

The World Bank estimated $ 3.4 billion of damage to structures, and nearly 100,000 housing units across the country have been damaged or destroyed.

The damage goes beyond the capabilities of Hezbollah.

In addition to its sense of marginalization, analysts said that Hezbollah now admits that it needs to allow the government to advance to attract decisive foreign financing that will help rebuild the widespread destruction caused by Israel’s attacks.

Waiting and vision game

Hezbollah supported the selection of the majority of the President, the head of the military, Joseph Aoun, and although it did not support the prime minister’s nuclei and did not agree with every seat in the cabinet, its deputies are still giving the new peace government a recent confidence vote.

“Sheikh Nayem Qassem affirmed … a policy of extending his hand to the new era and giving the era and the government an opportunity to play their role in protecting the borders, liberating the occupied Lebanese territories and rebuilding,” said Qasim Kasir, a Lebanese political analyst who believes that he is close to Hazbala.

“Of course, the party’s support base has comments on President Joseph Aoun’s performance and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, but this does not change the party’s positive position.”

Some of the local media that followed Hezbollah claims external pressure and support the government are isolated Hezbollah.

The editor -in -chief of Akhbar newspaper, Ibrahim Al -Amin, wrote, in an editorial, an interview that, through peace, “The Americans and the Saudis want Hezbollah to be represented directly in the government” and “to break the monopoly of hope and Hezbollah above [Shia] Representation of the government. ”

“The party’s criticism of the government stems from its frustration,” Sallia said. “Hezbollah no longer has financial means, opening Iranian support or clear military options to resist these changes.”

“At the present time, Hezbollah has no choice but to adapt to this unfavorable situation and wait for the circumstances that turn in its favor.”

Even with Hezbollah in a somewhat weak situation, this does not mean that their support at the base level goes anywhere.

“As for … the main supporters, I think this will make them more connected to Hezbollah because they will put this in the broader dimension of conspiracy.” “This can provide them to be more aggressive in the opposite of the view.”

He added that other members of the Shiite community, who historically received social services and other services from Hezbollah, may take an approach to waiting and seeing towards the new government and knowing whether it could fill the void resulting from the weakening of Hezbollah.