Since Donald Trump’s re-election as President of the United States, there has been increasing discussion about what his next administration’s policies toward Afghanistan might look like.

Many expect a tougher stance against the Taliban, but a closer look at Trump’s record and his statements on the issue suggests he is unlikely to make any radical changes to the pragmatic and staunchly anti-interventionist policies he pursued during his first term in power.

During his first term as president, Trump made clear his position against prolonged foreign engagements, especially the decades-long US presence in Afghanistan. He was the architect of Doha Agreement 2020 between the United States and the Taliban, paving the way for the US withdrawal from the country and eventually allowing the Taliban to return to power.

The Doha Agreement marked a major turning point in US strategy in Afghanistan. Dissatisfied with the progress of his administration’s South Asia policy, frustrated by a perceived lack of accountability among military advisers, and eager to prove to his base that he could indeed end one of America’s longest and most costly wars, Trump began looking for a quick solution. The way out of Afghanistan. After all traditional strategies failed to produce an implementable exit plan, he entered into direct negotiations with the Taliban to end the conflict.

After his re-election, Trump is likely to stick with this business-oriented approach to foreign policy, which remains popular among his base, preferring pragmatic deals to costly confrontations and military entanglements in Afghanistan and elsewhere.

The Taliban themselves seem to believe that a Trump presidency could be beneficial to their future prospects. For example, the Afghan government hopes that the future Trump administration will take “realistic steps towards tangible progress in relations between the two countries, and that the two countries will be able to open a new chapter of relations,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Abdul Qahar Balkhi said in a press conference. Posted on X in November shortly after Trump won the US election.

The Taliban’s optimism about future relations stems from their positive interactions with the first Trump administration. After all, the first Trump administration negotiated directly with the Taliban, began the process of US withdrawal from Afghanistan, and paved the way for its return to Kabul.

However, although he has been more open to practical cooperation with the Taliban than President Joe Biden and has strongly rejected any direct military confrontation, Trump is unlikely to allow the Taliban to do as they please with the country or give it everything it needs without extracting peace. price. If the Taliban fail to make progress in fulfilling commitments they made as part of the Doha Agreement, for example, Trump will likely reduce US aid or condition it on tangible progress in specific areas.

Trump has been calling for cuts in foreign aid as part of an “America First” approach, and he could also significantly reduce US aid to Afghanistan without providing a reason or condition. He will also not hesitate to impose strict economic sanctions on the Taliban government if he concludes that it harms American interests in one way or another.

US humanitarian aid arrives About $40ma per week Since the Taliban seized power, it has been an important lifeline for Afghanistan’s poor population. Any restriction or reduction in US aid would have dire consequences for its well-being and the well-being of the fragile Afghan economy. Such a decision would deepen Afghanistan’s economic crisis and further erode progress in education, health care and food security.

Since Trump’s last term as president, global attention has shifted away from Afghanistan. After the US withdrawal and with the beginning of hot conflicts of global importance in Ukraine and Palestine, the country became somewhat marginal in Washington’s foreign policy agenda. As an “America First” president who will have to spend a significant amount of time dealing with crises in the Middle East and Europe, Trump is unlikely to treat Afghanistan as anything other than a problem he has already solved.

However, Trump’s isolationist foreign policy tendencies, coupled with the aid cuts and economic sanctions he may impose on the Taliban, could easily lead to the collapse of the Afghan economy and turn Afghanistan once again into a pressing problem for the United States and its allies.

The economic collapse in Afghanistan could lead to a new migration crisis, major regional instability, and create fertile ground for extremist groups, such as the Muslim Brotherhood. ISIS (ISIS) in Khorasan Provinceto flourish.

While Trump’s non-interference stance appeals to an American public wary of foreign interference, the ripple effects of a weaker and poorer Afghanistan could pose long-term security challenges.

Such a scenario would also have dire consequences for the Afghan people – exacerbating economic hardship and causing a potential collapse of health services, renewed conflict, and further isolation from the rest of the world.

Once Trump returns to the White House and attempts to implement his “America First” agenda, Afghanistan is unlikely to be a priority on his mind. However, the choices he makes regarding Afghanistan will have important consequences not only for the long-suffering Afghan people, but also for the entire international community.

In short, Trump in his second term will need to find the right balance between practical disengagement and global leadership responsibilities in order to succeed in his Afghanistan policy and ensure that his efforts to end one conflict do not lead to a worse conflict in the future.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.