Last week, the data indicated that the American trade deficit rose to a record of $ 131.4 billion in January, when companies were quick to store goods before President Donald Trump Shrudinger tariff.

American economic data was generally disappointing, but the aggravating news about imports has particularly sparked some concern. Due to mechanics how to measure the local product and its calculation (imports as a point are offered to avoid dual waiver and measure local production), the widespread trade deficit helped to send Atlanta to follow Atlanta on a large scale.gross domestic product“The economic prediction model in a tail.

2.8 per cent Shrink The form of the form was later reviewed to -2.4 percent, then to -1.6 percent on Friday, after The latest American job numbers. However Anxious addresses About how the United States seemed to be interested in a short recession.

Here is Thomas Ryan, an economist in economic consulting:

It arises from the increase in the trade deficit to a record level of $ 131.4 billion in January again from a huge increase in imports, as companies rushed to quick requests before valid for the new and product definitions of the product.

. . . This huge clouds of net trade is what caused damage to estimating the gross domestic product in the first quarter, which is now at -2.5 % annually, as there was no rise in the accumulation of inventory in the data. The good news is that this should be reflected in the second quarter with the normalization of imports without a similar inventory, which is why we expect a strong recovery in GDP growth.

However, the main perpetrator was a really huge increase in American gold imports, as traders also sought to advance a possible customs tariff. This matters a a lot When we think of economic effects.

While the motivation is the same (avoiding definitions), the economic impact of movements in gold and other goods is significantly different. The vast majority of imports are consumed or used to produce other things, while gold is often inclined to sit inactive and useless in a cellar.

TL; DR is that although every case of uncertainty will undoubtedly there are economic losses, it is possible that the Tlemanta Virus GDP horror is safely ignored.

It is not easy to determine the effect of gold in the American trade balance statistics. It was strange in the “final metal shapes” category, which represents $ 20.5 billion out of $ 36.2 billion in goods imports in January.

“Unprecedented” is an excessive word of use, but you can see how extreme of January data here.

Other goods have increased as well, but to a much smaller extent. Pharmaceutical imports jumped 5.2 billion dollars, for example, for example, but this was just a 1.5x increase of January last year. Passenger car imports rose by one billion dollars, but remained less than in January last year.

In other words, alloys were head of trade numbers in January. As David Merikli said, the economist in Goldman Sachs said:

We have noticed that most of the widening in the trade deficit since November reflects the highest gold imports, which are excluded from the gross domestic product because it has not been consumed or used in production. Details of the trade balance report have already indicated that the high gold imports contributed to the largest part of the increase in imports in January.

If you are still not convinced of the importance of gold, let us look at us in trade with Switzerland.

Switzerland is the world’s largest transportation and transportation center in the world, and home to the largest golden mall in the world (alongside the United Kingdom). The US trade deficit with Switzerland exploded to $ 22 billion in January – Almost the volume of the trade deficit of American goods with China.

American goods ’import data that corresponds to the Swiss customs data, which showed gold exports from the country to the United States to 192.9 tons in January, from 64.2 tons in December.

You can enter different countries in this field above to see similar trends elsewhere. For example, the United States is often a trade surplus with Australia over the past decade, but an increase in gold in Australia exports Help pushing the trade balance to a negative area in January.

But it seems that Switzerland was the big, and it is additional evidence of how gold is deviant in January.

Perhaps he is afraid that he will look at a mistake in “Trumpcess”, and Atlanta has published the Federal Reserve on Friday explainer From its gross domestic product and gold imbalance:

Although the gross domestic product distinguishes gold from other imports, the Economic Analysis Office No, in collecting total net exports, subaggregate within the gross domestic product. Gold removal from imports and exports leads to an increase in both gross domestic growth forecasts and net exports to those expectations, by about 2 percentage points.

Topline growth also increased today -the standard model -2.4 percent to -1.6 per cent, “Golden Average” -0.4 percent model to 0.4 percent -where data from the labor market report today was stronger than the model was expected based on February’s limited data that the model received before this version.

Therefore, “gold -modified” gross domestic product is 0.4 percent. This is not great, but it is completely different from the frightening address number that still the FBI’s Atlanta Reserve model.

Goldman Sachs’s gross domestic product was 1.3 percent of Goldman Sachs, by 1.3 percent, but Friday reduced their growth forecast for 2025 and raised the “possibility of recession” to 20 percent.

Below are the main points of the latest economic update for the Investment Bank, if you are curious, with the focus of alphaville below:

– Large tariffs will give a larger boost to consumer prices. In the absence of definitions, we expected the basic PCE hypertrophy on an annual basis from 2.65 % in January to 2.1 % by December 2025. Under our previous tariff assumptions, we expected that the main PCE enlargement in the middle of 2S will remain for the rest of the year. Our new tariff assumptions indicate that it will be a little rising and climax at about 3 % on an annual basis, and in the risk scenario it will reach about 3.3 %.

-It is also possible that large customs duties will reach the gross domestic product through its tax -like effect on the available income and spending on the consumer and its impact on the financial conditions and the uncertainty of companies. While our previous tariff assumptions involve the peak of the result of GDP on an annual basis of -0.3PP, our new assumptions mean the peak of the result -0.8PP. In the risk scenario, this will grow to -1.3p.

– With this additional 0.5PP clouds on growth from the assumptions of the new large tariff, we have reduced the gross domestic product growth forecast 2025 Q4/Q4 to 1.7 %, from 2.2 % previously. This means that GDP growth will be slightly lower than the capabilities instead of a little top. We have shocked our unemployment rate at 0.1P to 4.2 % response.

We have also raised the possibility of recession for 12 months from 15 % to 20 %. We raised it by limited only at this stage because we see policy changes as the main risks, and the White House has the option to retreat if the negative risks begin to look more dangerous. If the policy is directed towards our risk scenario or if the White House remains committed to its policies even in the face of much worse data, the risk of stagnation will rise.

We will discover more when the first official estimate of the US GDP is published for the first three months of the year on April 30.