• Goldman SACHS economists are no longer seen not only the risk of recession by 20 %Warning that the possibility is now 35 %, given the effect -like effect on the real income available and consumer spending from the high definitions and its tendency to nullify the financial markets.

Goldman Sachs warns that the risk of shrinking the American economy in the coming months is increasing dramatically.

In a research note for customers published on Sunday, the most famous investment bank at Wall Street says it is expected to have a 35 % chance that GDP can be contracted in two consecutive quarterly, an increase of only 20 %.

She blamed the tax -like effect on the real income available and consumer spending from the high customs tariff, as well as its tendency to the absence of markets, tightening financial conditions and creating additional uncertainty for companies looking to invest.

The bank said: “The increase in our possibility of recession reflects the decrease in our growth basis, and the sharp deterioration in family confidence and business in expectations during the past month, and data from White House officials indicating a greater willingness to tolerate the economic weakness in the short term in the pursuit of their policies,” the bank said.

Economists with Goldman’s clients informed that they were raising the tariffs for the second time in less than a month, as investors argue that they reduce the risks that the high import duties will face.

“We note that President Trump recently said that he expects his planned tariffs to raise the unusual figure ranging between 600 billion dollars to $ 1 trillion during the next year, which means the average effective tariff rate from 18 % to 30 % on current import sizes.”

It is estimated that the joint impact of the changes in the immigration, immigration and tariff policy will present an estimated 1.2 percentage points of GDP growth during the next year.

3 price discounts are expected this year despite the high inflation

As a result, Goldman expects the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates in each of the three meetings scheduled in July, September and November.

More importantly, this comes despite the expectation that basic personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the preferred standard of the Federal Reserve, will reach about 3.5 % this year due to the rise in tariffs, instead of 3.0 % under its previous expectations.

Instead, Goldman expects the Federal Reserve to justify monetary policy by identifying concerns about the labor market and stopping growth from the current focus on price stability.

The Trump administration cannot be reached to comment by the time of journalism, but on Friday, Kush Disai spokesman saidluckCustoms duties were a necessary strategic tool for rebuilding heavy industry after decades of wrong commercial policy that led to the transfer of American factories abroad.

“America can not only be a group of external parts-we must become a manufacturing force that dominates every step of supply from industries that are necessary for our national security and our economic interests.”He said.

“Rawd by design”

Goldman Sachs is not the only one who takes a more view towards growth.

Mark Zandy is similar High probability The American economy will be reflected. Moody’s Analytics has previously expected a 15 % risk, but he now sees this by 40 %. Zandy argued earlier this month that if the gross domestic product is reducing, it would be. “Ruming by design“Or put differently, Self -contraction in the activity.

Trump promised Americans with brighter economic expectations by lowering the energy price, lowering taxes and treating anti -growth obstacles such as bureaucratic red strip.

However, there were doubts that Trump may first try to manufacture an economic slowdown to bring 10 -year returns on sovereign bonds in what some came to contact.Trump“.

with Unusual 6.7 trillion dollars In the United States, you need to be re -funded this year, there are great concerns by investors such as Ray Dalio, founder of the total hedge fund Bridge, this uncle Sam struggle To find enough request in Reasonable prices.

In all, about $ 28 trillion of national debt owed between investors is trading, and higher rates of sustainability of interest burden service are now larger than the Pentagon budget.

Looking at these concerns, fears of Treasury Secretary Scott Payett indicated that it is more concerned about it Borrowing costs The American long bonds were pushed with the health of the stock market.

This story was originally shown on Fortune.com

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2025-03-31 12:54:00