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Another week, another high record for gold. The wild celebration braid between Goldbugs – and the feverish speculation of everyone about the cause of the explosion in the demand for precious metal.

Geopolitical disorders are One clear interpretation. Fears of inflation in a crazy amid The tariff drama last. However, there is a third, the least noticing, exporting away: some of the hedge funds in Scott Bessen, the treasury minister who has turned into the United States, speculate on the dignity of gold stocks in America.

Its value is currently estimated at $ 42 an ounce. But knowledge monitors believe that if these current values ​​- $ 2800 an ounce – can be distinguished by this 800 billion dollars in the public treasury account, through the rebuilding agreement. This may reduce the need to issue a lot of treasury bonds this year.

This week, such gossip intensified after Bensj pledged to “invest the assets side in the American public budget”-and in other words, to focus on assets as much as the obligations-while it is also a reduction in treasury revenues for 10 years.

“Re -reinstitation. To the current market value that will remove the United States’ public budget mechanically,”, David Titras says, From the College of Business Administration, which is noticed if gold Prices continue to rise, this possible pond enlarges. Or like Larry McDonald, a liberal analyst, Notes: “It is time to innovate.. The public budget for uncle Sam.”

Will this happen? I don’t know. I also think he does not do that, because it is Donald Trump who puts politics. But the fact that these wild speculation is a whirlpool confirming three main points.

First: Investors know that Bessent has an incentive to be creative, given the frightening financial opening. Republicans in the House of Representatives teach a tax bill and tax spending that will add “up to 5.5 trillion dollars of raising the initial deficit” and “enhancing interest costs of about 1.3 trillion over the next decade” according to The responsible financial budget committee. This can excite the bond market warning this spring, if not a revolution in the Congress of popular nationalists. This hole cannot only be connected by breaking a small agency such as the United States Agency for International Development (Hurry), Or leaving Elon Musk stopping federal payments (also outrageous). “While there are potential costs of costs, the only way to create financial responsibility is with a significant increase in taxes,” says Robert Robin, former Treasury Secretary.

Second, bessent needs currency tricks as well as that financial. As JD VANCE, Vice President, told Congress last year, Kabal Trump is considered dollar To be exaggerated in its estimation – to the point that it wanders at the country’s industrial base. They attribute this to the state of the reserve currency.

But while they prefer a weaker currency, Trump also wants to keep this global dominance of the dollar and bitant Teach The customs tariff may enhance its value.

This makes their policy look strange. But some commentators on the market, such as Luke Gromen, believe that the contradiction can be solved if the cabinet carries or enables gold to continue to rise against the dollar. Gold is likely to be a major axis [for] “The new system that the Trump administration is trying to engineer,” he says.

Many prevailing economists will differ, but this shows the third main point: the world of potential policy-making-what is called an Overton-winding window now. To understand this, look at a Denied investor memo It was written by Stephen Miran last year, which heads the Economic House of Economists in Trump, the most thinking explanation for the financial economy Trump that I saw (echoing the ideas he greatly approved by Bessent, among other things).

Miran argues that investors must expect the customs tariff initially to be used as a dramatic tactic to negotiate (as they were this week). It will be published later as a long -term means of increasing revenues and demarcating geopolitical allies. It also claims that the status of US dollar reserves and US military domination is tightly linked to the extent that the White House can compel countries with the US security umbrella to finance their deficit by buying treasury bonds that have long ago.

The most interesting thing, Miran predicts that although the definitions will boost the dollar at first, Greenback should be dropped at the end, even if the White House defends the state of backup. how? Many tactics that can be used, including “volunteer” cooperation from the Federal Reserve and the agreement to reduce the value of the multilateral dollar.

Such ideas may look crazy. Miran admits that politics is a “path” to implement tactics such as “without negative financial consequences” is “narrow”. Very very. “If they start playing games with a weak dollar, this is very risky,” says Robin. But what Miran’s note shows is that unseen ideas are now completely imagined. And not only Trump’s threat to Greenland’s invasion.

Thus, it is not surprising that gold surpasses bitcoin now; Not that merchants Flying gold bars From London’s basement to New York. Welcome to the financial world of Alice-In-Wondland, where the purchase of alloys seems almost sane.

Gillian.tett@ft.com