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The threats of global growth escalate with the US -dependent commercial shock crushing and controlling financial markets, according to the search for financial times before the main meetings of economic policy makers in Washington this week.

Confidence indicators decreased sharply while the conditions of the financial market deteriorated, according to Brookings-FT tracking indicators for global economic recovery, or tiger. Deterioration Global expectations It is a noticeable contrast with the company’s relatively starting start for this year.

Eswar Brasad, an older colleague at the Brookings Foundation, said that it would be “premature” to predict stagnation around the world, but he warned that the collapse of global trade and uncertainty in higher policy will lead to significantly growing growth.

“We have seen this huge shock,” said Brasad. “Every open economy depends on trade will be clicked, in addition to that you will have [negative] Confidence effects. ”

The results come at a time when economic policy makers and financial ministers from all over the world are gathering in Washington for the first group of the International Monetary Fund Spring/World Bank meetings since the opening of Donald Trump as an American president.

Crystalina Georgiviva, the administrative director of the company International Monetary FundOn Thursday, he warned that the fund was preparing to reduce growth expectations, as “the fluctuation of financial markets” and “uncertainty in commercial policy literally outside the plans.”

In January, the Fund expected global growth by 3.3 percent this year and the birthday, as the United States determined the expansion of 2.7 percent this year and 2.1 percent in 2026.

Trump’s decision to announce a comprehensive tariff for most trade partners in America on April 2 in a train in sharp declines in the financial markets and a set of discounts to growth predictions.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank reduced the main interest rate to 2.25 percent, as it was prepared to enter from commercial wars, and warned that growth forecast had deteriorated due to “increasing commercial tensions”.

Brookings twice Tiger It compares indicators of real activity, financial markets and confidence with historical averages, both for advanced economies or those emerging.

Confidence numbers for the United States in particular, which show the lowest levels of confidence since the start of the index, as well as a sharp deterioration in the financial market conditions. Confidence levels in China and Germany are also hovering over depression levels.

The real activity indicators in the United States remained relatively strong, according to the report, but are based on data up to January 2025, thus preceding the introduction of Trump’s commercial policies.

Some signs continue to refer to fixed activity in the United States, where retail sales jump by 1.4 percent in March, although this may be partially driven by an increase in car sales as consumers seek to progress in definitions.

The financial market index in the TIGER report was based on more modern data, including stock prices until mid -April. Business and consumer confidence numbers are run until the end of March, with news reports to extend the numbers this month.

“The uncertainty has led to the consumer’s confidence strongly and is likely to negatively affect the investment of business and the growth of employment,” said Brasad.

“The Federal Reserve’s ability to support the economy and thwart the financial turmoil by passing the definitions to local inflation.”

The updated growth predictions of the International Monetary Fund are scheduled for Tuesday. Economists in the private sector have reduced growth predictions, given uncertainty in high policy, weakening morale and beating of wealth from falling markets.

Citigroup now sees a 2.1 percent global growth this year and 2.3 percent in 2026, according to a memo last week, warning of risks to their expectations “strongly deviant to the negative side”.

The meetings in Washington come while politicians are waiting for more clarity on the position of the new administration towards the Bretton Woods institutions.

The United States, the largest contributor to both the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, has not yet been appointed as a manager for any of the organizations councils.

The President, or Treasury Secretary, Scott Beysent, indicated that they wanted to implement a recommendation in the conservative project statement 2025, published by the Heritage Corporation in 2023, to “end” the financial contributions of the United States in the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

But the administration launched a review of the role of the United States and supporting international institutions. BESSENT is expected to address the policies of the new management on the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in a discussion on Wednesday.

Some Republican lawmakers seek to change the approach to institutions. Franch Hill, who heads the Parliamentary Financial Services Committee, called for a “return to the basics” approach, as the fund focuses on areas such as total economic monitoring and remains far from trying to provide financing to reduce climate change.

Gorgiva and World Bank President Ajay Banga have met in recent weeks, according to people close to them.

Additional reports from Aime Williams in Washington