The Germans will be hard to find a time when the political scene was fragmented, as is the case before the federal elections on Sunday.

For the first time since World War II, the two traditional political two politicals in Germany are scheduled to have less than half of the national vote.

The Socialist Democratic Party in the ruling center (SPD), which is expected to leave four years in its position-its shortest since the war-is 16 percent voting, which is the lowest level in the war.

The Christian Democratic Union in the center -right (CDU), in power for 51 years than the past 75 years, is at the forefront, but with a decreasing majority of about 30 percent, less than points less than its victory so far in 2017, Far from the victories of the Cold War elections.

The rise of the smaller parties

Social Democrats the ruling called on the elections after losing the coalition partner last fall and voting confidence in Parliament last December.

But the timing of political turmoil in Germany cannot be worse.

While the administration of US President Donald Trump offers Russia’s concessions for fast speed Ending the war of UkraineMany in Europe claim Reinstalling the security structure on the continentAsking powerful governments to make important decisions on defense and foreign policy.

More than half of the German vote will go to smaller parties on the left and right. The lion’s share-about 20 percent-is to go to the extreme right-wing alternative for Germany (AFD), a party that promises to remove the euro and return Deutschmark, reflected the transition to clean energy, throwing immigrants, and perhaps Germany has completely removed Germany from the European Union.

“People say it is the last opportunity for liberal democratic parties, and they say, make sure that the next government is a functional government that produces results,” German retired diplomat Christian Shalaga told Al -Jazeera.

“The next government will have to prove that it can do this, especially regarding immigration,” said Shalaga. “If they fail, like the last government, people will say this is the basis for AFD.”

CDU and SPD decrease

At their peak, in the 1960s and 1970s, CDU and SPD took about 90 percent of popular sounds, leaving a small room for anyone else.

This began to change in the late 1990s, as the German political scene became more pluralistic. The leftist vegetables were founded in 1993, the left (Link dies) in 2007, and AFD in 2013. All of them ate at the base of voters CDU-SPD.

“if [the CDU] Jeans Bastian, an economist at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said, adding that the situation is more wonderful for the brain scenery at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, adding that the situation is more terrifying for the brain scenery, the result of less than 30 percent, it is a defeat for CDU “The situation is more magnificent for the Democratic Democratic Party.

“We only left one party that is 30 percent success … for SPD, it is a success if you approach 20.”

Why migration on ballet?

Immigration quickly has become the first issue during the election campaign, partly due to a series of deadly attacks by foreign nationals in the past few months.

Saudi citizen Six people were killed He was wounded 200 when he plowed the rented four -wheel drive vehicles in the Christmas market in the town of Magdburg last December.

Last month, on January 22, an Afghan man who is mentally ill with a two -year -old boys and a 41 -year -old man tried to protect him in a garden in Ashminburg, near Frankfurt.

Last week, on February 13, another Afghan asylum student was killed by a 37 -year -old woman and her two -year -old daughter. Plow a car in a trade union protest In Munich.

These previous attacks and attacks were inflicted on German discontent against immigrants who are not eligible to stay in Germany but have not been transferred, or they were not integrated with German society and values.

AFD publicly calls for large numbers of immigrants to deport, including legal population and even citizens, and the Trump administration said it will do in the United States.

Friedrich Mirz, leader of CDU, has called for strengthening border controls, increasing police authorities in arresting people, slowing or stopping the family reunification of migrants already in the country legally.

SPD and Greens refused to work with Merz on this agenda, saying that she is playing in the hands of the extreme right.

What about economics and unemployment?

The Germans also see their infrastructure collapses after years of investment, especially railways and bridges, but they are warned against relaxing their constitutional requirements for a balanced budget, for fear that this will lead to an unlimited spending.

Some observers believe that German society is not ready for the upcoming difficult economic decisions.

“The unions require an eight percent increase in salaries and another three days of the holiday in a country where workers have six weeks already a year,” Shalaga said. “This does not reflect today’s facts and people do not accept it.”

Counselor Olaf Schools, from SPD, said that he supports the relaxation of financial rules to spend more to stimulate the economy and defense, but Mirz showed a frequency in borrowing or raising taxes.

The Ukrainian war sparked energy costs and caused inflation in Germany as anywhere else in Europe, but has damaged the German industrial industrial and economic base in particular.

The German economy is expected to be a contract 0.5 per cent in 2025, the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry said, representing the third annual contraction in a row, which is the longest stagnation after the war. “This is a turning point and emphasizes the sharp need for work,” said Helena Melnikov, the room’s managing director.

That had effects on. VDP Banking Association this month estimated Real estate prices decreased by 5.4 percent last year, as it turned over the curvature of four years.

accident reconnaissance It showed that 70 percent of the Germans were concerned about the cost of living, and a similar margin feared the additional recession.

Although Unemployment It decreased by 3.2 percent, new jobs ran in December, the latest federal numbers, and German industrial production decreased by 2.4 percent in December compared to November, more than four times expected.

“The politicians do not say the truth about the number of upcoming challenges,” Shalaga said. “Schools reassures voters that their social and economic situation will not change. Merz tells people that we will not have to raise the debt brakes significantly, yet we will somehow deal with all expenses.”

What is the possible result?

Germany has a parliamentary system, which means that a party or an alliance of parties comes to power by occupying the majority of the 630 -seats Bundestag seats.

Any party is expected to get enough votes to win a 616 -seat majority and rule on its own, so the coalition is likely to be necessary.

The advisor, the advisor, said he wants to have the option to work with any of three powerful. It was preferable to avoid the tripartite coalition, which some people blame for the fall of social democrats, who gathered in 2021 with Democrats and Greens.