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Even as US slashes jobs, ‘it is the calm before the storm’, economists warn | Unemployment News

The first group of economic reports last week reflects the state of the US economy during the first full month of President Donald Trump. Data reveals a rise in workers’ demobilization and the growth growth in both the public and private sectors, with looming discounts indicating greater economic problems in the coming months.

The American economy added 151,000 jobs, according to the Ministry of Labor’s report, which was issued on Friday – less than the expectations of economists that show a booth in economic growth. About 7.1 million Americans are currently receiving unemployment benefits, compared to 6.5 million this time last year.

“I think the real risks here are that if Trump does not reflect a path of what he is doing, this may be the last boring report, which I think will be really harmful to the economy. Elizabeth Pancote, the administrative director of politics and the call to the Economic Research Group: said:

The White House drew an alternative image. “In one month during the era of President Trump, the American economy returns to greatness after the economic disaster that Joe Biden left,” the White House press secretary at the White House said in a statement.

However, former President Biden was praised that he leads the best economic recovery in the world after the global economic shrinkage amid Covid-19.

Last week’s numbers may be the best that we will get for a long time amid the demobilization of workers and customs tariff fears.

“This is calm before the storm, before we start seeing the repercussions in the labor market from the trade war and Doug discounts, and other economic policies from Trump,” Zandy told the island of the island. Dog is the newly created government ministry, which is led by the enthusiastic supporter of Trump, billionaire Elon Musk.

Those concerns come on the back Trump’s comments made During the weekend, it refused to exclude an imminent American stagnation, and hesitated in the stock market on Monday when S&P lost 500 155.21 points, or 2.69 percent, to end today at 5,614.99 points. This is the first time that it has ended less than the 200-day moving average-the level of support that has been closely monitored-since November 2023.

The nasdaq complex index lost 726.01 points, or 3.99 percent, to 17,470.21-the largest decrease in one day since September 2022, according to CNN. The Dow Jones industrial average also decreased 890.63 points, or 2.08 percent, to 41,911.09.

Discounts on the horizon

There are major indicators indicating that this is getting worse in the coming months. The index, which shows the number of people who took part -time work, including because they were unable to find a full -time work or their hours decreased, increased by 460,000 from the previous month, to 4.9 million people.

“This is the shortest honeymoon that we have seen at all if you have 50 days in the job. He inherited a very stable economy on paper, and it is already deteriorating after 50 days. I don’t think this has never happened.”

Since Trump took office, Dog has reduced nearly 33,000 people across the federal government, according to Layoff.fyi, who tracks federal government hairstyles and technology.

Because of the ongoing court cases, the official count from the Ministry of Labor is 10,000 jobs. The demobilization of workers includes employees of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the service of the National Park, the National Institutes of Health, the National Oceanic and Country Country Administration (NOAA) and the Ministry of Energy, among many other government agencies.

It is expected that the number of discounts in the public sector will increase, as many recent discounts came in Dog after the end of the work statistics office (a section of the Ministry of Labor) in reporting the month.

Earlier this month, the Trump administration announced its plans to reduce 80,000 employees from the veteran affairs department. He also called on the president to dissolve the Ministry of Education, although this can only be done by the Congress Law.

Global Investment Company Apollo expectations When looking at federal contractors at the head of full -time employees, federal workforce discounts can represent nearly one million jobs.

In the report last week’s jobs from the Ministry of Labor, it was the largest gains in the health care sector, adding 52,000 jobs. However, health care discounts on the horizon can make these gains very short.

“If we look at huge Medicaid discounts – we will actually see [National Institutes of Health] Health research discounts at the National Health Institutes – Medical Care Discounts on the table. All of these can threaten the sector that leads a lot of job gains, ”Pancoti continued.

The effect of the estuary has already struck the private sector, which depends on federal funds. A private sector worker in Texas, who spoke to the island in the event of anonymity, said that the company with which they worked with customers who were largely dependent on federal funds because of the work that dried up.

“We have moved from getting a quarter of 1 very busy in 2025 to the absence of anything at all in the books within about a week of the opening,” the source told Al -Jazeera.

“Now that I had to not spend any money at all and do nothing but search for jobs, I do not spend money in the economy. I do not do things like making improvements on my home. I would have paid contractors to do so. I am within two months of paying my last student loans and now that will be stopped until I find something new. Now, you must worry if I could do the necessary trip to transfer my cat to the veterinarian “.

According to the Ministry of Commerce data, American consumers reduced spending for the first time in nearly two years.

Others are concerned about how they obtained, such as Kathleen -Chlor, who worked in the public’s participation in the project to report organized crime and corruption, a non -profit organization that received funding from the United States Agency for International Development, until it was recently demobilized. A My single mother in Hawaii – one of the most expensive unilateral states where the average house price is more than $ 800,000 – has two children’s chlorine.

“I am supporting my child. Chlor told Al -Jazeera:” It will make it more difficult to achieve this through uncertainty. “

“I am still wondering whether Donald is really thinking about what he is doing to ordinary middle -class people like me who are only trying to earn live and provide their children. Why does he want to make my life more difficult?” She added.

The private sector cuts anger

“We are trying to reduce the government and develop the private sector. This is what we were doing,” Trump said on Friday.

But workers’ demobilization in the private sector is high. ADP, which tracks unbeatable private salaries that were added to the American economy during the previous month, showed that the economy added 77,000 jobs, which is less than 148,000 economists expected. The entertainment and hospitality sector, a group of low -wage industries, has led the gains, adding 41,000 of these functions.

“The uncertainty in politics and the slowdown in consumer spending may have led to the demobilization of workers or slowdown in employment last month,” Nilla Richardson, ADP chief economist in ADP.

A separate report on Challenger, Gray and ChristmasAnd, which helps frequent employees find a new work, showed that in February alone, American employers announced job cuts more than 172000 – an increase of 245 percent over this time last month – the highest jump since July 2020 during the height of the roaming epidemic. The jump in discounts showed the largest annual increase since the recession in February 2009.

The retail sector led discounts with an increase of 572 percent in discounts throughout the industry compared to this time last year.

The technology sector witnessed a wave of demobilization of prominent workers, and continued on the topic that started last year. In 2024, the technology industry reduced more than 157,000 jobs. Among those who made discounts last month, including Meta – Facebook and Instagram, the parent company – which applies 3,600 employees. The news comes just weeks after the CEO donated one million dollars to the Trump opening fund.

Jeff Bezos also donated $ 1 million to the Trump opening fund. Just weeks later, the giant blue origin, which is run by Bezos, was demobilized 1,400 people. Alphabet – the parent company of Google – got rid of about 100 people in February. She also donated one million dollars to the Trump opening fund.

The executives of all these companies attended the installation of Trump.

Microsoft has cut nearly 2000 people from the workforce. Its CEO met with Trump at Mar Lago Golf Club in January, just days before the opening.

Other major companies, including the oil and gas giant, announced Chevron, pending the demobilization of workers last month. It comes at a time when Chevron’s problems are about to get more essential. The Trump administration has canceled the Houston Company, Texas -based Texas, to pump Venezuelan oil.

Starbucks and SouthWest Airlines also announced discounts in recent weeks.

Definitions can lead to wider discounts

Trump’s economic policies, including back and forth, will lead to customs duties and subsequent revenge definitions, to hinder the American workforce. Trump has postponed the tariffs by 25 percent on Canada and Mexico until April 2. This is the second time that he puts the definitions and then pulled them quickly.

“The trade war causes greater damage than these types of other economic policy steps that are taken. It creates uncertainty for companies.”

One of the sectors that will be immediately affected by the definitions of Canada and Mexico is the auto industry. The main players in this sector have criticized the president’s plans in recent weeks, including Ford Jim Farley CEO who said the definitions “will blow a hole” in the automotive industry.

Other key players in the manufacturing sector expect it to get worse. Last month, William Oberlenger, CEO of ALCOA, said last month at a conference that the aluminum tariff could cost the US economy 100,000 jobs.

“It seems as if the president is increasingly serious and will participate in a wide -ranging tariff. If he does, I expect other countries to be divided more or less of its kind, and that the full trade war will lead to a lot of damage. If this path decreases, I believe that the risk of stagnation later in the year, later in this spring and summer, is very high.”

New investments

Trump got a handful of economic victories in his first weeks in office, including more Honda investment to build more factories, which will eventually lead to more manufacturing functions. However, production will not contact the Internet until May 2028 – less than a year before the end of the Trump period.

Japanese truck maker ISUZU announced a new factory in South Carolina, which will employ 700 people. But it will start operations in 2027.

Trump also described a deal with TSMC – a manufacturer of Taiwanese semiconductor chips – for an investment of $ 100 billion. The negotiations related to a deal began before Trump took office and under the Biden administration, prompting the chips maker to increase his initial investment by $ 6.6 billion.

In February, the Trump administration described Apple’s recent commitment to $ 500 billion as a result of Trump’s policies. In April 2021, when Biden was president, Apple made a similar commitment.

The White House did not respond to the island’s request to clarify.

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2025-03-11 15:56:00

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