France is facing Marine Le Pen at the moment of making or breaking Monday, as a judge who rules whether it should be banned from the upcoming presidential elections.

The hard -right leader, before all its competitors in the 2027 race, will be at court at 10:00 local time (09:00 amputation) to rule a The trial of the party’s financing targeting the National Rally Party (RN).

At the end of the trial in November, the state prosecutor demanded guilty rulings for LE Pen and 24 others accused of using parliament’s funds in the European Union to pay party salaries.

But for the public surprise, the prosecutor also said that Le Pen’s penalty should not be just a fine and imprisonment of 300,000 euros (250,000 pounds), but also Inclusion of candidacy for public positions for a period of five years.

He said it is important, that his lack of eligibility must be kicking immediately – and he is not suspended pending the appeal that Marin Le Pen is expected to be submitted if convicted.

The three judges are not obligated to follow the recommendations of the Public Prosecutor.

But if they did, this means that Le Pen, who is 56 years old, is forbidden Standing in presidential elections To which the potential winner tends.

“It is my political death after that,” she said in November.

Many French commentators – not only those who support Le Pen – warned of severe consequences for democracy if he is seen eliminating that he is interfering in choosing the country’s leader.

“The judicial system has the fate of Marin Lo [election] -This is completely another issue. ”Veteran analyst Franz-Olivier Jesper wrote in Le Point magazine in the center.

“Is it not dangerous – do we not say risky – giving the judges the task of determining whether this or that candidate has the ability to run for positions?” Bruno Giodi, editor of the La Tribune Dimanche newspaper on Sunday, said on Sunday.

“I am not tense. I can see why people think I may be. Rulers have the power of life or death on the movement. But I don’t think they will go to some extent to do this,” said Marin Le Pen.

Various scenarios for judgment under checking.

First, Le Pen can be cleared of blame for the relationship of parliamentary money in the European Union. This is widely considered that it is unlikely.

Second, the judges can be convicted, but they make the inaccuracy of the lack of automation. In this case, it will resume immediately and its eligibility will not be applied until after a second trial (and it can be conceived one -third of the Supreme Court of Appeal).

This would leave it free to run in 2027, despite the disability of the condemnation of the abuse of public funds. However, it is clear that the condemnation will lead to great damage, given a series of party financing scandals that affected all French parties over the years.

Third, the judges can follow the public prosecutor and request that the automatic importance is not eligible. In this case, it will resume, and the other parts of the sentence (fine and imprisonment) will be suspended. However, you will not be able to run in 2027.

Fourth, the court can give it a shorter period than automatic importance – for example – one – which makes it theoretically possible to manage it.

The year 2027 will be the fourth presidential race for Marin Le Pen, and the other that provides the greatest chance to win.

The right-wing opinion poll gave her between 34-37 % of the first round votes, before any of its potential competitors.

In the last two presidencies, a mistake was made by the tour system that allowed the opponents from the left, the right and the right to Behind one candidate – Emmanuel Macron – gathered to prevent her from power.

But years of “removing toxins” after her father, Jean -Marie Le Pen, shattered at the head of the party, made the anti -RN vote less cohesive than it was, while the victories on the hard right in other countries helped to raise the taboos of the RN government.

If le pen is prevented from runningIts logical alternative will be Jordan Bardela, the 29 -year -old party leader who was prepared to be its prime minister in the end.

However, the party’s informed admit that there was little internal preparation for what could be widely seen as a huge and uncomfortable political earthquake.

One of the results of Le Pen’s advertisement could be unable to run in 2027 is to weaken the government of the minority of Prime Minister Francois Bayro. With 120 members of the National Assembly, RN has the power to vote with the left in a Voting on lack of confidence to bring down the government.

So far, Marine Le Pen kept its forces. You may feel less inclined, if you feel she was a victim of the establishment of the institution.