Stay in view of the free updates

Simply subscribe to German policy Myft Digest – it is delivered directly to your inbox.

German election winner Friedrich Mirz is facing serious obstacles to strengthening defensive spending in the largest country in Europe after the parties have armed Ukraine on sufficient seats to prevent the country’s strict borders to reduce public borrowing.

Mirz has indicated openness to the reform of “debt brakes” in Germany to finance infrastructure investments that are strongly needed and leadership at the level of Europe to increase the defense budgets, even when Christian Democrats (CDU) formally maintained their commitment to rule in the period before Sunday voting.

But the far -right alternative to Germany (AFD) and Linke dies from the hard -line left have won more than 210 seats required for the “minority ban” in the German parliament.

This gives them the authority to prevent any amendment to the German debt brakes, a base dedicated to the constitution in 2009 to reduce government borrowing and maintain the structural deficit by 0.35 percent of GDP.

The same condition applies to the creation of a special paper for the sheet outside the balance, such as a 100 billion euros container, which is announced by Chancellor Olaf Schools in 2022 to finance a comprehensive reform of the German armed forces after Vladimir Putin’s full invasion of Ukraine.

Holger Schmiding, chief economist at Burnberg Bank, warned that Sunday’s result could create a dangerous headache of Mires. “While it is important to raise spending on the army and Ukraine and reduce the tax burden of workers and companies, Germany may fight to find the financial space to do so,” he said.

“The failure to increase military spending may make Germany in a deep problem with its NATO partners. By raising the anger of US President Donald Trump, it will also add to the threat of a trade war for the United States of America.

“In one of the biggest issues – perhaps the biggest issue – for the next government that has a prohibited minority. This is a huge problem,” said Jan Techau, an analyst who covers Germany and European defense in the European Consulting Group.

Economists have warned that without a change in debt brake or the creation of a private budget box, it will be impossible to finance tens of billions of euros Urgently needed an additional investment In the largest economy in the euro area. This includes money for transportation and communications infrastructure, as well as a much higher defense budget in the wake of the conquest of Ukraine.

The volume of the challenge was doubled due to Trump’s return to the White House, and his launch of direct peace negotiations with Russia and his threat to withdraw American security guarantees from Europe, which forced European leaders to hold crisis talks on how to fill the void.

Although Mirz said he believed he could find money to finance investment Reducing well -being payments And stimulating economic growth, many analysts do not believe that such measures will be sufficient.

If MERZ decides to repair debt brakes – perhaps as part of an agreement with coalition partners such as the Social Democratic Party in Scholz (SPD), and the vegetables, both of which support reform – Sunday results will have to mark the terrain -thorny political movement.

AFD, who ranked second in Sunday, supports approximately 21 percent of the vote, higher defensive spending but strongly opposes Ukraine arming and opposes the change of debt brakes. Mirz also excluded any form of direct cooperation with the right -wing extremist party.

Die Linke, which has ended almost 9 percent, supports brake reform, but he strongly opposes military support for Ukraine and high spending on the German armed forces.

Jeans Sodom, a professor of international economics at Heinrich Hein University of Dusseldorf, and a defender of debt brake repair, described the situation as “difficult to negotiate, but not impossible.”

He said it might be possible to negotiate a deal with DIE Link, perhaps by creating a private budget fund for civil infrastructure and using about 50 billion euros in the budget of the normal budget for defense financing.

“The problem is that they will ask for a price,” said about Die Link. He said Mirz could face strong opposition from inside his party to a deal with Linke, who dies from the solid left.

Some analysts, including Schmiding from Bernberg, have argued that Mirz can suspend religious brakes by announcing a national emergency, perhaps in a state of serious deterioration in the situation in Ukraine.

But such a step will only allow a limited increase in spending for a specific period. The matter may also risk the cancellation of the Constitutional Court in Germany, which in 2023 At the dawn of a hole of 60 billion euros In the federal budget after the ruling against an attempt to use emergency funds in the era of the epidemic to pay the price of the green transition.

“It was easier, it was just possible that CDU, social democrats and vegetables had the super majority and the implementation of the fiscal policy that Germany needs,” said Sodkum. “Now you need modifications, rolls and halal.”