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It is strange that the European response to abandon it by Donald Trump was puzzled. After all, Trump had long indicated that he was Vladimir Putin and felt that he was not associated with NATO. After “Peace” plan In Ukraine it seemed that the shock of European officials.

This is partly because they were hoping for the best to avoid preparing for the worst. But this is also because they do not think that the world is working in this way: the aggressor attacks a country that amazed his own business and is rewarded. Westerners of our generation do not tend to expect the bad victory, because we grew up to believe in progress. This belief gave us a false conceptual framework to read the world.

Western faith in progress was a mixture of Christian Jewish morals and fares. God pays the wicked, people grow more wise, and scientific progress improves life. My 90 -year -old aunt may remain advocated by the death of her brother from measles in 1939, but medicine was turning the tragedy. Our films and fictional tales have strengthened this optimism. The good people win the shootings, and Cinderella lives permanently.

The theory of good history appears to be emphasized by the actual Western history. Our modern central moral story was the victory over Hitler, followed by the 80 -year -old “long peace” in the West, based on an international order built by the United States, Sharif Al -Saleh.

As Napoleon said, “To understand the man, you have to know what was happening in the world when he was 20 years old.” When I was 20 years old, I left me a global gradual moment with a permanent perception of optimism. Within the three months of November 1989, the Communism of Eastern Europe fell and Nelson Mandela was out of prison. Freedom triumphed, because people wanted freedom. I felt like a law of history.

The “progressive” mark itself indicates belief in progress. Barack Obama, the great progressive politician, like Martin Luther King Junior, believed, “The ethical arc of the universe is long, but it bends towards justice.” His election slogan was “Yes, we can.”

The belief in progress has been recovered for another for a few years. I wrote in ft In 2014: “Humans have become more educated, rich, and internationally linked, and more likely to live in democracies. These factors tend to reduce violence. In fact, through some definitions, there have been no wars between states since 2008.” She wrote shortly after: Perhaps there is progress in history after all. ”

I now think it is mostly Western who believe in progress. In more clear parts of the world and in the lower Western social classes, pessimistic look prevails. It is an early implantation. Studies on Russian and American children’s stories, led by Amy Halbstadt from North Carolina State and Chinsova Dateon from Georgetown University, have found, “The text of Russian books indicated anger and sadness often more than American books.” Russian illustrations also depict “frequent anger and fear”.

Some historical pessimists believe that the world is managed by plots from bankers, elite brothers, central intelligence plans, etc. Religious pessimists believe that this world is a valley of tears, with a reward that comes in the afterlife. last Pessimism He concluded, based on the experiences of their countries, that instead of winning good men, the law of history may be corrected.

Trump has become the first successful American politician to express historical pessimism. Blames elite plots to sabotage the United States. In political geography, it removes the theory of good and believes in strength. Russia is stronger than Ukraine, and all this follows.

I am late for historical pessimism. Even scientific progress has limited value. We now have vaccines against measles, but also the US Secretary of Health, Robert P. Kennedy JuniorWhich is spreading doubt about the vaccines.

As for technology, this century has increased our bad life. We are now average of nearly seven hours a day online, alone, and increasingly self, stripping it of privacy, and absorbing nonsense. And thinking about other technological “progress”. It is true that the vaccines contain Covid-19, but the CIA has concluded that the epidemic may have begun with a Chinese laboratory leakage. Manufactured foods feed global obesity. The spread of nuclear weapons may increase as the United States stops protecting its allies. Above all, carbon burning technology caused a type of non -processed planetary cancer.

Perhaps I grew up on Russian children’s stories that helped us understand all this.

Email Simon in simon.kuper@ft.com

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