A major trade war was avoided between the United States and Canada after US President Donald Trump agreed to stop imposing 25 percent A 30 -day tariff. but Anger erupted in CanadaWith people who are calling for boycotting the products of the United States, and some of them so that it calls to stop exporting oil to the country’s southern neighbor.

However, preventing the flow of crude oil to the United States may lead to an enormous economic cost on Canada, which almost all its raw oil pumps to the United States through a network of pipelines.

Moreover, it will take some time for Canada to diversify its exports after decades of close trade relations that have been strengthened through the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which Trump, which Trump Re -negotiation During his first term in his position from 2017 to 2021.

Hence, in theory, Canada can stop the flow of oil to the United States as a financial lever to make Trump back down from the tariff threats. But doing this would disrupt the crude supply for refineries in eastern Canada, where the pipelines pass through the American region.

How does the oil pipeline work in Canada?

The main warning is how to apply the pipelines infrastructure in Canada. It begins in western Canada, where most oil is produced, but it must pass through the United States to reach the eastern side of Canada.

Most oil is produced in the Western Canada basin (WCSB), which includes the provinces of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchean and Manitoba.

Crude oil is transported through the pipelines that pass through the United States to reach the provinces of the East Coast in Canada, including Ontario and Cibic, where they are refined. So the pipeline network, some of which were built in the fifties, serve both refineries in the United States and Canada.

“Canada and the United States made a conscious decision to integrate the energy infrastructure,” Jitan de Silva, former CEO CANADA ENERGY, CANADA ENERGY. “It was really this way for a long time.”

In 1994, the United States, Canada and Mexico signed the NAFTA deal, which removed most of the definitions between the three countries and included rulings on energy cooperation.

“When the agreement was ratified, there was a desire in the United States to export Canada as much energy as possible,” said De Silva. The United States, Mexico and Cananga Convention (USMCA), which replaced NAFTA under Trump in 2020, maintains most of the provisions of Nava with energy.

Geography also plays a role in how to build pipelines.

“Geology and geography to build pipelines from Alberta to Ontario and Kebbek represent a somewhat challenge due to the continental shield and the Great Lakes,” said De Silva. The Continental Shield is an area of ​​the old and arduous Cambrian that constitutes nearly half of the Earth’s mass in Canada.

Canadian oil flows into parts of the United States, such as the Middle West, where there are some refineries. Some refineries in the United States are closer to Canadian oil sites than eastern provinces. For example, the oil area in British Columbia is approaching California in the United States more than the Canadian province in Ontario.

How much oil does Canada send to the United States?

Almost all crude oil exports in Canada – about 97 percent – were exported to the United States in 2023, according to Cer.

In 2022, 60 percent of US oil imports were from Canada, according to the US Energy Information Department.

In 2024, Canada produced 5.7 million barrels of oil per day, according to the Canadian Society of Petroleum Products. About 4.3 million barrels of petroleum products were exported to the United States daily.

Can Canada stop sending crude oil to the United States?

Yes, in theory, but experts are unlikely.

The federal government, in theory, has the power to stop exports. But De Silva said this will be complicated, because Canada is a union, which means that the federal government and provinces are involved in power. Oil production comes under the strength of the boycott.

“There are definitely legal questions there, because Canada has not done it before,” said De Silva to the island of the island, adding that the differences can cause a “local constitutional crisis.”

De Silva added that there is also an issue of storage of oil after turning off the tap. “When the pipelines are full, it will be very difficult to find an area for an additional 4 million barrels per day.”

De Silva added that if the Canadian government decides to cut oil supplies to the United States, there will also be a question mark about how the eastern parts of Canada – Ontario, Cubick, and New Bronzwek – will get its oil. It raises questions about whether the United States will in turn prevent the flow of oil, which flows across American territory, to eastern Canada.

According to the 1977 Us-Schanada Airlines Convention, no public authority in the United States or Canada is conducting measures “aimed at influence, hindering, converting, redirecting or interfering in any method. Hydrocarbon in crossing.”

“While violations of the treaty can be challenged in court,” Di Silva said, “With the Trump administration, I do not know if it focuses on these international treaties.”

Last month, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Trump said, “We do not need [Canada’s] Oil and gas. We have more than anyone else. “He pledged to dig more oil to compensate for a possible Canadian oil.

There are alternative methods through which crude oil from West Canada can be transported to the east, including through railways, trucks, naval and carriers. However, De Silva said, “The pipelines are the safest way to transport oil and gas. It is also the most efficient and more effective, so it will not be a complete solution, it will not be an ideal solution, but it will be an option, if necessary.”

According to 2024 Data from CerThe pipelines exported 89.6 percent of crude oil in Canada. The rest was sent by railways and other networks.

“Canada was actively searching for other export markets for its Z.” De Silva said. However, there is no solution overnight to this, she added.

Even during the previous administration of US President Joe Biden, concerns about the need for Canada to reform the pipeline strategy were raised. On his first day in his post, Biden canceled the raw Keystone XL pipeline from Canada to the United States due to climate change fears.

“It is time to review its strategy because we see that now, with the new administration, it may become very dangerous for us to have only one customer for our exports,” economist Miguel Olit wrote in a report published in 2021 by the MEI Economic Institute (Mei ).

Reuters reported on Tuesday that Trump Mountain said that the Canadian pipeline operator said that if Trump carried out the customs tariff, the delivery processes to Asia would be possible. The pipeline was expanded last year to bring oil to the Pacific Coast in Canada, where oil is shipped on tankers to China, Japan and South Korea.

De Silva explained that the ban on oil exports to the United States will have a very negative impact on the economy in Canada. She said: “The oil sector is the largest driver for our economy.” “Given that the United States is our largest export market, I think the federal government will consider very carefully before choosing to do so because local effects will be large or large like the effects of the United States.”

What is on the test?

In 2022, 79.2 % of refined oil in Canada came from the United States, according to the data of the Economic Sophistry (OEC).

The United States is importing Canadian crude oil, which is refined in the Middle West to the United States, and then sold to Canada and the rest of the world.

De Silva said that one of the arguments Canada to prevent the United States from issuing a customs tariff is that “Canada issues reasonable, reliable and safe energy produced by high environmental standards and commitment to human rights, [and] He sells this to the United States with a discount. After that, the US lips buy this, polish it and send it to Canada and the rest of the world by providing a great cost. “

High definitions can make fuel expensive, which leads to inflation. They can also affect the sectors directed towards export, which leads to job losses-which will negatively affect the Party of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who faces elections later this year.