China’s December trade data beat expectations by a wide margin, with exporters continuing to front-load shipments as concerns mount over additional tariffs, while the country’s stimulus measures appear to be supporting demand in the industrial sector.

Exports in December jumped by 10.7% in US dollars compared to the previous year, according to data from China. The Customs Service showed on MondayExceeding growth expectations of 7.3 percent in a Reuters poll. This compares with growth of 6.7% in November and a rise of 12.7% in October.

Imports rose 1.0% last month from a year earlier, customs data showed, reversing the contraction in the previous two months. Analysts had expected imports to decline by 1.5% year-on-year. This is compared with A The largest decline was 3.9% in November and 2.3% in October.

Last year, China’s total yuan-denominated exports jumped 7.1% from the previous year, accelerating from Modest growth of 0.6% in 2023Customs officials said in a press conference on Monday.

China’s imports increased last year by 2.3%, up from 2.3%. Decreased by 0.3% in 2023.

“Overseas shipments are likely to remain resilient in the near term, supported by further gains in global market share,” Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, said in a note, thanks to the weaker yuan.

However, the full-year export outlook looks less optimistic, as “potential tariff increases could dampen momentum,” said Bruce Pang, a senior research fellow at the National Finance and Development Corporation.

“In the short term, import volumes are also expected to rebound further, driven by increased demand for industrial goods, with fiscal spending accelerating,” Pang added.

China’s domestic demand has been hit by the protracted real estate crisis, making the country more dependent on exports to support its growth.

Economists expect it to be for exports It greatly supported China’s economic growth last year. Full-year GDP data is due later this week.

Exports have been a rare bright spot in China’s battered economy amid escalating trade tensions with its main trading partners – the United States and the European Union – but that growth may be at risk after US President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House.

This year, China will need to focus more on boosting domestic demand as external momentum fades, Gary Ng, chief economist at Natixis, told CNBC via email. He added, “China’s deflationary pressures in the manufacturing sector may continue to fuel further geopolitical tensions.”

Weak consumer sentiment, uneven recovery in real estate and tepid growth in local government infrastructure projects continue to slow the recovery in domestic demand, Ng said.

In December, shipments to most markets rose, with double-digit increases to ASEAN and the United States, where exports grew 18.9% and 15.6% respectively from a year earlier, according to CNBC calculations of official customs data. .

Imports from the United States in December rose by 2.6%, and from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) – China’s largest trading partner – by 5.4%.

Exports to the European Union increased by 8.76%, while imports decreased by 4.9%. The country’s exports to Russia, a partner in the BRICS group, increased by 5.5%, while imports decreased by 4.7%.

Last year, China’s exports of electric vehicles and semiconductors It rose 13.1% and 18.7% last year, respectivelyAccording to customs officials.

Meanwhile, the country’s steel exports reached the highest level since 2015, with shipments reaching 110.7 million tons, as the country struggled to offset weak domestic demand due to the real estate crisis and slowdown in manufacturing activities.

Trump – who is due to take office on January 20 – has raised concerns about increasing tariffs on Chinese exports. I have It pledged to impose an additional 10% customs duty. On all Chinese goods entering the United States

Since late September, the Chinese authorities have intensified their political support to support the country’s economy as growth falters and social tensions escalate. But “there are still vestiges of caution and restraint,” Gabriel Wildau, managing director at Teneo, said in a note last Friday.

China has Reducing interest ratesrelaxed Real estate purchase restrictionsInjecting liquidity into the financial market as well Debt swap program unveiled To relieve financial pressures on local governments.

“Although senior leaders recognize the need to boost real GDP growth, Xi still appears reluctant to embrace the additional degree of stimulus required to combat deflation,” Wildau added.

“Policymakers need to keep some stimulus powder dry to enable an adequate response if the impact of tariffs is severe,” he said, suggesting that uncertainty over export growth creates an additional reason for Beijing to avoid a “big bang approach.”

Among a slew of key economic data to be released this week, China is scheduled to release GDP figures for the full year as well as for the fourth quarter on Friday. Growth is expected to reach 5.1 percent year-on-year in the last quarter of 2024, according to a Reuters poll.

This year, the senior leadership pledged to conduct the strengthening Domestic consumption is a top priority With the expansion of fiscal spending to finance consumer goods trade policy and equipment modernization. It was launched in July last yearTrade-in program supports consumers to Replace old cars or home appliances And buy new ones at a discount.