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The writer is an American -chief economist, the author of the American COMPASS, and writes the newsletter for understanding America

Lightness is prepared with a mysterious budget for the hand to take the central theater in the American debate about tax discounts and spending. At least magic tricks can entertain, and sometimes dread. But the budget trick is, in the words of Congress member David Shokerrt, Chairman of the Supervision Board of the Committee and means of tax writing book, only “only” “scam“.

Most of the Republicans’ tax cuts during the first term of President Donald Trump in the 2017 tax and job cuts law (TCJA), which sparked the deficit of $ 1.7 trillion, is scheduled to end at the end of 2025. Republicans put the bomb in their legislation to reduce the cost cost – and their ability to add to the national center. The expiration of the authority was also necessary to clarify the procedural obstacle of “reconciliation”, which allows new budget -related laws to avoid the severity of the Senate only if they did nothing to increase the deficit after the first ten years.

But now the bomb exploded. Without new legislation, the current law requires that tax rates return to pre -TCJA levels. Maintaining the current policy will cost approximately 5 meters of revenue lost over the next ten years.

Swallowing 1.7 trillion in the new deficit was difficult In 2017When the annual budget deficit was $ 693 billion, the federal government spent $ 269 billion to serve $ 15 million in public debt. Increase them In 2025When the annual budget deficit reaches $ 1.9 trillion and the federal government spends 952 billion dollars to serve more than 30 hyiothens of public debt, crazy. Even with the end of TCJA, the Congress Budget Office expects the deficit to reach 2.1 trillion in 2030, with interest payments that year exceeding $ 1.3 million.

What is the financial portfolio to do? The real person may seek to increase revenues and reduce spending, which leads to a rapid decrease in deficit and the budget in a path towards balance. Suffice it to say, this is not the direction chosen by the Republican Party.

False financial conservatives scream their teeth, prepare their clothes, then vote on tax cuts that penetrate the budget anyway. At least they admit that they may not be able to expand all tax reductions TCJA; And they will need to find trillion dollars from discounts in spending to make the impact impact more acceptable-perhaps a net cost of $ 2 dollars instead of 4 American -5 American. As a result, they also know that they cannot make permanent tax cuts, because the higher deficit will permanently violate the rules of reconciliation.

Enter, now, tax fraud. What if they asked, we just pretend that tax cuts are not supposed to end? It is certain that it expires under the “current law”, which is the basis for its cost. But in light of the “current policy”, it is valid. So if we deal with the current policy as our basic line, then expand it and even make it permanent cost it zero dollar. In fact, allowing tax cuts to end will represent the largest tax height in history.

The craving of the embarrassing trust of this argument should be intuitive. The only reason that causes Congress to find itself dealing with the terminated tax cuts in the first place is that these tax fraud themselves wanted to use the expiration fact to make the last discounts less expensive. The only reason they allowed to pass TCJA in 2017 is that under the current law, this will not affect the long -term deficit. TCJA rates have not been suggested in the long run, and it could not be approved. It is basically non -democratic for the nation to return from something that has never been asked to support. Basically, we claim that there is no cost to make the cuts permanent, when the cost of its cycle has not been calculated.

“Lying” accusations make lawyers nervous. So let’s note simply that when the Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee Mike Crabo He says“If you do not change the tax law, then you simply extend the current policy – you do not increase the deficit,” then it is far from the truth. Reports Indicate The majority leader of the Senate John Thun and Parliament Speaker Mike Johnson, who is now facing unfamiliar facts of financial responsibilities, is preparing to align his example. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessin It has indicated The Trump administration may be on board.

What are these tax cuts on these republican minds that would lead them not only to offend the national interest, but also to behave themselves on a public stage? Perhaps Shakespeare can answer this question? Political analyst cannot.