Calip Rajland, a soybean farmer in Magnolia, Kentucky, was in favor of the president Donald Trump In 2016, 2020 and 2024. However, he must move in a tariff minefield at a time when the sector is already facing the main opposite winds.

Rajland works with his wife and three children and has deep roots in society. His family was grown on the ground for more than two centuries. However, over the past few years, there has been a decrease in percentage of two number in crop prices while production costs have risen. Futures have decreased soybeans over 40 % over the past three years along with the future of the atom.

While the pressure in the industry escalates as a result of the definitions imposed by the second Trump administration – as well as the retaliatory fees from other countries – it is concerned about the longevity of its work.

“My children can be from the tenth generation if they are able to farm,” Rajland, also the head of the American Soy Soy Society, told CNBC. “And when you have policies out of our will completely – they manipulate our prices by 20 %, 30 %, and on the other hand, our costs rise – we will not be able to stay at work.”

This is not the first time that farmers have to deal with new definitions. In Trump’s first period, the trade war with China was in 2018 – while Rajland said the agricultural economy “is much better than it is now” – cost the American agriculture industry. More than 27 billion dollarsSoybeans make up approximately 71 % of the annual losses.

This trade war caused permanent damage. To this day, the United States has not yet recovered its loss in its market share from soybean exports to China, the world Buyer number one for the commodityAccording to ASA.

“The definitions break confidence,” Rajland said. “It is very difficult to find new customers from keeping your customers already.”

The White House imposed last week a 25 % tariffs on the goods from Canada and Mexico Besides an additional duty of 10 % on Chinese imports.

While Trump reflected the path soon A single -month tariff delay to automotive companies Wednesday, then the definitions were stopped after a day for Some Canadian and Mexican goods until April 2He said in an interview broadcast on Sunday on Fox News, which is known for the definitions “You can rise” over time.

The definitions of China were not included in these exemptions. China has averaged with its own drawings, which Essentially targeting American agricultural goods. Specifically, American soybeans are now subject to an additional 10 % tariff, while corn is 15 % additional fees.

“We are already at the stage that we are unanimous,” Rajland said. “Why are we trying on the ground to add an insult to the AG sector by adding a tax mainly?”

Rajland noted that he “appreciates the president’s ability to negotiate” and wants Trump to be successful for the country. However, he stressed that those in industry, especially soybeans producers, have no “flexibility in our ability to overcome a commercial war that takes out of our final result.”

Rajland said about feelings of feelings from other farmers, stressing that they all need relief through deals that reduce barriers to trade and a comprehensive farm bill for a period of five years-legislation that provides the producers a key to Basic commodity support programsAmong other things. “You are talking about ways to live people,” he said.

The Minister of Agriculture, Brock Rollins, said last week that the Trump administration was The weight of exemptions on some agricultural products From the customs tariff for Canada and Mexico. The amending Trump measures included Thursday A. 10 % decrease in potashAnd that is used for fertilizers.

Kane City said from the potash needs to American farmers Nutrients – Service and services equipped in Canada – during the International BMO Conference on Minerals, Mining, and Critical Minerals last month.

“While we look at the effects of customs tariffs for Nutrien, of course, the biggest discussion about the potash, because in a market ranging between 10 million to 11 million tons in any specific year, we provide about 40 % of this market,” the company’s CEO stressed during the conference. “We believe that the cost of definitions will be transferred to the American farmer.”

Even in the implementation process to carry out the Trump tariff, American farmers were signing the alarm. Despite the most recent Bordeaux University/CME Group AG Barometter When reading that the morale of farmers was generally improved in February, 44 % of the respondents in that month revealed that commercial policy will be the most important for their farms in the next five years.

“Usually, when you ask a question to policy to a large extent, the most important policy is crop insurance,” said Michael Langier, the agricultural economist at Bordeaux University. “Crop insurance is there with the Apple Pie and Basbol. It is a very loved program, because it provides a very effective safety network.”

He also said, “The fact that securing crops was again far from commercial policy talking about volumes.”

The February poll also showed that nearly 50 % of farmers said they believed that the trade war is leading to a significant decrease in American agricultural exports “possible” or “very likely”. Langmeier estimated that between mid -February and early March, there were 33 % per acre in the net revenue of soybeans and corn related to tariffs. This is in addition to the fact that the year 2025 was “not ending until it was a very profitable year before that,” he revealed.

The economist believes that there may be little declining amendment to the short -term farmers’ feelings. However, the constructive result of definitions can accelerate the signature of a new farm bill, he said.

“Well, how in the world you can reach commercial payments if you don’t even know what are the amounts of the farm bill,” The new farm bill is expected to be signed at some point this year.

Looking at the next spring season, Steve Bern, Bank of America analyst on February 25, wrote that the customs tariff can lead to “more conservative purchases of crop inputs”. This means that the risk of decreased fertilizer purchases, which may affect not only nutrien but like others like others mosaic and CF industriesNote the analyst.

The shares of those companies, as well as other shares related to agriculture Agco and DyerAll of them were sold on March 3 and 4 March, following the announcement of the Trump tariff.

“I think we have seen the sale of AG shares just because of the general concerns that the farmer will not be profitable this year,” said Seth Goldstein of Morningsar in an interview with CNBC.

Over the course of last month, mosaics decreased by almost 8 %, while CF Industries decreased by approximately 10 %. Nutrien has also lost more than 1 %. AGCO and DeEERE were better at the time, as they got 1.7 % and 0.3 % respectively.

When it comes to how this trade war on American farmers in the long run, Goldstein does not see this meaningful effect. World trade flows are expected to change and cancel each other over the two years to three years or so.

“Although there may be an impact on the near -term soybeans sitting in warehouses without really buyers, I think we will see other countries and then start buying more American soybeans,” the stock expert said. “China may buy more soybeans from Brazil, but you may buy a place like Europe, then buy more soybeans from the United States, and we get … no big difference.”

As is the case that Brazil is expected to be the largest product of soybeans in the world before the United States for 2024/2025, which represents 40 % of global production in this period, according to Ministry of Agriculture. For atom, on the other hand, the United States is expected to be in the lead, and crown 31 % of global production In the year of marketing.

However, others in Wall Street believe that customs tariffs will be more dependent on trade dynamics.

Christine Owen, an analyst in Obenheimer, predicts that duties are likely to promote Brazil to become the main global product of both corn and soybeans, while the United States will become a kind of additional supplier to the world.

“Brazil exactly has a greater ability to develop its area, and more growing to increase its share of the global grain trade,” CNBC told CNBC. “Definitions and some other decisions taken by the administration speed up.”