Shortly more than one month after the second period of Donald Trump’s presidency, US foreign policy, especially in Europe, was raised.

The United States has targeted customs duties to neighbors, and took traditional allies in Europe, He took a position in support of Russia towards Ukraine In the face of the previous administration.

When asked whether the Atlantic alliance between Europe and the United States had died, veteran investor David Roche, the strategic expert at Quantum Strategy, was not worn: “Yes … it has ended.”

“Basically, the Trump administration is not interested in alliances, only deals,” he said. “Confidence has been broken. You can’t have an alliance without confidence.”

The question now is: What does this carry to Asia and the Pacific Ocean, especially the allies in the region?

Adam Garfillerkel, a former visitor colleague at the College of International Studies in Singapore, wrote on February 24 that “the US -friendly Asian elites should not assume that American assets will flow from their reduction in Europe in Asia,” Adam Garfillerkel, a former visitor colleague at the College of International Studies in Singapore, wrote on February 24.

Asian allies should consider that the declining American global military imprint may make logistics for US security pledges in Asia more difficult, more expensive for management and less credible.

The United States has Security treaties with six countries In the Asia Pacific region, it has military bases in the Philippines, South Korea and Japan. Singapore, although it is not an ally of the American Treaty, has long defensive relations with the US military.

Garfillerkel also said that the Asian countries that host the US bases may not increase importance or appreciation, but may face the demands of “offset payments”.

“They must also assume the continuity of regional forums such as Quad and Aukus. They must assume that all aid and construction programs in the United States in their countries will end-soon,” Garfilin said.

The quarter refers to the diplomatic partnership between Australia, India, Japan and the United States, while AUKUS refers to the tripartite security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States. These partnerships are not mutual defensive treaties like NATO.

Roche said that the position taken by the Trump administration was a “huge shift.”

He said: “Whether you are South Korea, Japan, or even Singapore, yes, you cannot rely on the United States to defend you … all of these states in Asia, which were implicit or explicitly relied upon on American protection, this protection cannot be relied upon, and you will not rely on that protection.”

On February 12, US Defense Secretary Beit Higseth He said at a meeting of the Defense Communication Group, Ukraine “The stark strategic facts prevent the United States of America from focusing mainly on the security of Europe.”

He added: “The United States faces dependency threats for our country. We must focus – and we – focus on the security of our borders.”

One of the areas of interest is the relations between the strait between Taiwan and China. Since 2016, China has increased its speech on the island, where it conducted multiple military exercises and pledged “Lamti” with Taiwan.

China did not give up its demand for Taiwan -who was self -governed since the Chinese National Party, or the Comingng, fled to the island after defeating the Communists in the Chinese Civil War in 1949. The Chinese President Xi Jinping Greetings to its reunification with the main righteousness.Historical inevitability“

Roche said the Trump administration around Ukraine increases the risk of Chinese military action against Taiwan.

He said: “The Chinese should be convinced now that if they besieged, let’s say, the energy tankers that go to Taiwan, that the United States will not go to war for this.”

However, Bernard Lu, coordinator of the Strategic Studies Program at S. Rajararatnam School for International Studies, said that Taiwan will rely on the so -called “silicon shield” to protect it.

This indicates the idea that the crucial site of Taiwan in the chips industry will deter direct military action by China, because Taiwan is a home to companies like Taiwan semiconductor manufacturer Foxconn – also known as as It is the accuracy industry HiLu said.

He also pointed out that although China may have a stronger army, the war of Russia, Ukraine, should have learned that “the war is really difficult.” It is cited factors such as terrain, the difficulty of re -supplying the forces with amphibious landing, and unpredictable weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait, including potential hurricanes.

“I think the last thing that Shi Jinping wants is the war in Taiwan, simply because it is very unknown,” said Lu.

in November 2024 Analysis Piece For the Asian and Pacific Driving Network, Frank Odonel, the chief research consultant in the network, said: “Trump’s historical focus on the price, but not the value of American alliances and partnerships, will form the lens through which his new management in the region will be more than before.”

He wrote that this view will lead to a confrontation between the United States and the main Pacific partners on whether Trump feels that they are paying enough “protection funds” for strategic cooperation and US military operations.

During his first term, Trump referred to this South Korea must pay more in exchange for the American military presence there.

“This impulsion and the inability to predict from Trump’s Indian and Pacific countries may lead to independently starting in the steps necessary to improve the self -defense and political rule from the United States,” Odonil wrote.

Roche said that something like “Asian NATO” can be achieved, and is concentrated around Japan, South Korea and Singapore, as well as Taiwan. He said that other countries in Asia may line up behind this entity.

But at the end of the matter, “weakening the credibility of the United States’ power on a global scale.”

“Whether you are South Africa, Zimbabwe or Congo with its minerals or Singapore, the largest individual effect is to reduce the value of the credibility of the United States as a currency,” said Roche.