Islamabad, Pakistan – Sharp escalation in Hostilities Tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan over the past week resulted in the killing of at least one member of the Pakistani security forces and dozens of civilians in Afghanistan.

This latest round of cross-border fighting stems from what Pakistan has insisted is its response to regular attacks by the militant group Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, which Islamabad said has found sanctuary across the border in Afghanistan. The most recent Pakistani Taliban attack, on December 21, killed at least 16 Pakistani soldiers.

Pakistani military sources confirmed to Al Jazeera that Pakistan launched the attack on Tuesday Air strikes In the Afghan province of Paktia, bordering Pakistan’s South Waziristan tribal region.

Pakistani aircraft reportedly targeted hideouts where Pakistani Taliban fighters had taken refuge. But the Afghan Taliban government, which has been in power since August 2021, accused Pakistan of killing at least 46 civilians, including women and children, in air strikes.

In response, the Afghan government vowed “revenge.” On Saturday, Afghan Taliban forces claimed responsibility for the attack “Several pointsNear the Durand Line, the disputed border between the two countries.

However, as the weapons on both sides fell silent, a familiar question arose: What’s next for these two neighbours, entangled in a fraught and fragile relationship that has lasted for decades?

Cooperation and conflict

For decades, Pakistan has been considered a sponsor of the Afghan Taliban, which first came to power in 1996. Pakistan is believed to exercise significant influence over the group, providing it with shelter, funding and diplomatic support.

After the US-led invasion of Afghanistan following the September 11 attacks, many Afghan Taliban leaders took refuge in Pakistan. In the midst of US drone strikes on the Pakistani border areas, the Pakistani Taliban, often called the Pakistani Taliban, emerged.

Despite sharing ideological ties with the Afghan Taliban, the Pakistani Taliban have waged a violent campaign against the Pakistani state.

The Pakistani army carried out several operations to eliminate the Pakistani Taliban movement, prompting many of its leaders to seek refuge in Afghanistan. When the Afghan Taliban regained control of Kabul in 2021, Pakistan hoped to leverage its historical ties to limit the activity of the Pakistani Taliban. However, the escalation of attacks inside Pakistan since then indicates the failure of these efforts.

Former Pakistani Ambassador and Special Representative to Afghanistan, Asif Durrani, believes that the Afghan Taliban faces major challenges in managing the Pakistani Taliban and other groups, such as the ISIS branch in Khorasan Province.

“The Afghan Taliban must decide whether they will support the Pakistani Taliban or prioritize their relationship with Pakistan,” Durrani told Al Jazeera. “They often refuse help to deal with these groups while bragging about their ability to deal with them independently.”

Journalist and analyst Sami Yousafzai, who has reported extensively on the region, said keeping the conflict on the back burner suited both governments, even if rhetoric on social media seemed to suggest a major escalation was just around the corner.

I don’t think either side wants to worsen the situation. However, the Pakistani military faced pressure – both public and internal – in the wake of repeated TTP attacks and needed to show retaliatory measures, even if it did not significantly weaken the TTP.

This is not the first time that Pakistan has targeted alleged Pakistani Taliban hideouts in Afghanistan. similar Air strikes The incident occurred in March but did not provoke a direct reaction from the Afghan government.

However, Latest mutual It has drawn comparisons with what happened between Pakistan and Iran in January when the two countries bombed each other’s border areas.

Neither side can afford to escalate this conflict into anything bigger, said Manzar Zaidi, a Lahore-based researcher on conflict in the region.

“compared to Exchanging blows “With Iran earlier this year, Pakistan has much greater interests with Afghanistan, and last week’s air strikes can be seen as a message rather than a serious attempt at escalation,” Al-Zaidi told Al Jazeera.

He added: “As we saw with the Iranian strikes, this has led to dialogue between the two countries, and there is an opportunity for the two countries to sit at the negotiating table.”

Failed diplomacy?

The latest air strikes took place while Muhammad Sadiq, Pakistan’s special representative to Afghanistan, was in Kabul meeting with senior Afghan officials.

Both countries participated in High-level diplomatic meetings Over the past two years, including visits by Pakistan’s Defense Minister and the head of Pakistan’s intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), in February last year.

Three months later, Acting Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Mottaki visited Islamabad, where he also held talks with General Asim Munir, the Pakistani army chief.

Despite these efforts, violence within Pakistan continues unabated. According to the Pakistani Ministry of Interior, more than 1,500 violent incidents in the first 10 months of this year resulted in the deaths of at least 1,000 people. 924 peopleThey include 570 law enforcement personnel and 351 civilians.

The Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies reported 856 attacks in 2024, exceeding the number recorded in 2024. 645 incidents It was registered in 2023.

Durrani said the Afghan Taliban needed to understand the consequences of tense relations with Pakistan.

“They must realize that they are no longer ‘freedom fighters’ but a government with great responsibilities towards its people and its neighbours. No country will tolerate the use of Afghan territory against them.”

Al-Zaidi echoed this sentiment, noting that the Afghan Taliban’s aspirations for international legitimacy could prevent further escalation.

Al-Zaidi said: “Afghanistan is also seeking to establish stronger relations with China, Pakistan’s main ally, which motivates it to stop the escalation.”

However, Yousafzai warned that Pakistan also needs to act more responsibly as a democratic, nuclear-armed state.

There may be frustration in Pakistani strategic circles. “After decades of supporting the Afghan Taliban, they are not getting the results they expected,” Yousafzai said.

“Missiles and airstrikes will not solve this conflict – something we should have learned during the US’s so-called war on terror.”

The only reasonable path to reconciliation, according to Yousafzai, is for Pakistan to stop “pursuing the principle of strategic depth” in Afghanistan. Historically, the Pakistani military has sought to maintain its influence in Afghanistan by providing sponsorship to armed groups to pressure India, its traditional enemy.

This approach, of effectively treating Afghanistan as a pawn in its rivalry against India, has deprived Pakistan of legitimacy among Afghans, according to many experts.

“they [Pakistan] “It must start by supporting the legitimate resistance and other pro-democracy groups there that oppose the ruling Afghan Taliban.” “But this can only happen if Pakistan first apologizes for the policies it has followed in the past.”