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As Modi meets Trump, can he get India tariff waivers, Iran respite? | Politics News

New Delhi, India Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi fell in Washington late on Wednesday night and US President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet on Thursday at the White House.

While the two leaders often Describe each other as friends In the past, and even gathering joint political marches, Modi’s visit comes at a time when the relationship is tested through Trump’s tariff threats and the reality of deportation.

“I look forward to interviewing my friend, President Trump,” Modi said in a letter of departure, adding that he has “very warm memories to work together [Trump’s] The first term. “

Trump announced Moody’s visit to the United States after his phone conversation on January 27, that is, a week after he was deposited in office to separate his second term. After inviting them, Trump also said he believed that Modi would do “what is right” Indian immigrants are not documented in the United States.

But satisfying both Trump and the Indian public will not be easy for Modi.

Here is what is at the test for India, and what Modi may bring with him to the meeting with Trump to try to waste the American president.

What is at stake for India?

The United States is the largest export destination in India and ranks among its best trading partners in many sectors, including technology, trade, defense and energy. The dual-direction between the United States and India touched its highest level of $ 118 billion in 2023-24.

Bilateral relations have also been strengthened in the past three decades, as the United States has increasingly focused on facing the rise of a common competitor – China.

But despite this rapprochement, Trump explained – as it was with many American allies – he had deep differences with India.

During his campaign in the 2024 elections, Trump described India as a “very large abuse” for trade and Threatened definitions. Since his election, New Delhi has pushed to buy more security equipment in the United States as a way to reduce the defect in their trade. In 2024, the trade surplus reached $ 45.6 billion, in favor of India, according to US government data.

The Trump re -election campaign also shed light on undocumented immigration and illegal settlement in the United States. As of 2022, India ranked third, after Mexico and El Salvador, among countries with the largest number of unconventional immigrants – 725,000 – who live in the country.

On Wednesday, a US military plane landed in Amritsar, a city in northern India, carrying 104 Indian departures, their hands and legs. In the farthest of this flight by an American military plane, the deportation of the deportees I paid great angerIncluding protests by the opposition, in India.

“India has always celebrated the success of the Indians in the United States, which means that the Indian Americans were a very clear society in India’s awareness,” said Swran Singh, a professor at the Center for International Politics at the prestigious Jawharilah Nahru University in Delhi. He also said that the Indian foreign policy, during the Modi era, was particularly celebrated the non -resident Indians. Singh said: “These dynamics make the abuse of the Indian deportees a volatile and flammable issue in bilateral relations,” Singh said.

John Danilovic, a retired diplomat who served in the US State Department, said that Modi’s meeting with Trump “is basically an opportunity for the Indian National President to present his side from the story to make the New Delhi case.”

But what can Modi offer to manage Trump’s threat to definitions and deportation?

What is the possible Modi Modi Plan for Deportation?

Singh noted the official Indian government’s reaction to anger at the photos of citizens returning from the United States on handcuffs.

He suggested that, it was a deliberate decision.

“Trump has some ways in his madness. Singh said that he uses strange strains to create the maximum pressure.” It is not good to face it publicly [on contentious issues]”

Instead, after a stir in Parliament, Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar said that the use of restrictions was part of the deportation policy in the United States, adding that “it is to adhere to all countries to restore their citizens if they are found illegally living abroad.”

“Our focus on a strong campaign on the illegal immigration industry must be taken with steps to reduce visas for Sharia travelers,” said Jayishkar.

How can the Trump anti -definition?

Trump promised to announce more customs tariffs later this week, and although he did not specify the countries or sectors that may be targeted, India is expected to be affected.

On Wednesday, White House press secretary Caroline Levit said that she expects these mutual definitions – against countries that Trump believes to impose unfair restrictions on American imports – to be announced before US President Moody meets.

Trump has already imposed a 10 percent tariff on all Chinese imports at the top of the current customs tariff, and has provided a 25 percent tariff on all imports of steel and aluminum.

But when Moody Trump meets, the Indian Prime Minister can refer to the unilateral steps that India has taken to reduce the barriers that prevent the entry of American goods, analysts say.

Traditionally, India, an emerging economy, had a high tariff for many imported products that were afraid to hurt its local industry and the agricultural sector. However, in its last budget, which was announced on February 1, the Moody government cut the tariff and avoided any fever.

Danilovic said these steps “may anticipate some measures in the American administration.”

India, after all, is aware of the dangers of the tariff war with the United States. In 2018, Trump imposed a 25 percent tariff on $ 761 million of steel and 10 percent over $ 382 million of aluminum imported from India, which retaliated by adding customs duties to at least 28 American products. After years of trade tensions, in 2023, a decision was announced during Modi’s visit to Washington.

Moody will want to avoid repetition.

“India has yet escaped the heat of the direct tariff by the new Trump administration, which is a positive sign,” said Bisjit Dar, a distinguished professor at the New Delhi Social Development Council.

Dhar, an international commercial expert, told Al-Jazeera that Modi needed to use this meeting “to persuade Trump that India plays a fair game in the Vis-Vis game, and therefore, India must treat differently.”

“If China slapped these types of definitions, the same thing should happen to India,” Dar said, adding that the “personal background” of the duo’s relationship should allow space to accommodate these discussions. “At least, India does not like itself to be immersed with China.”

After all, China-or rather the common doubts of Beijing’s plans for the Asia and Pacific region-is the largest glue that brings together the relationship between India and the United States.

“Commitment to asthma”

Moody is only the fourth of the leader of the world who has been meeting Trump since his re -election, after Israel, Jordan and Japan, which suffers from the conflict, is its ally in the Asia and Pacific region. Foreign policy experts told Al -Jazeera that the call for this early in Trump’s state explains the importance of the American president who considers relations with India.

China is a large part of it.

A day after Trump was sworn in as a 47th American President, Marco Rubio, a meeting with his fellow ministers abroad in India, Australia and Japan. The four countries – with a population population of about two billion people and represent more than a third of the global total local products (GDP) – Quad, is a strategic forum that focuses on the Asia and Pacific region.

The US government’s statement said after their conversation that the Modi-Trump phone on January 27 “also stressed their commitment to providing the partnership of the United States, India’s strategic and quadruple partnership in India and the Pacific.”

“The Trump administration has clearly indicated that the India and the Pacific region is a priority. Danilovich, a former American diplomat, said:” This is clearly driven to compete with China. “

But there is another country that Trump and the United States want to target – and there, New Delhi and Washington differ.

Iran’s equation

Michael Kogman, director of the South Asian Institute at the Wilson Center, a research center based in Washington, DC, said the major storm is brewing between India and the United States over Iran.

In the midst of tensions Chabahar port On the Gulf of Oman, where India has invested in millions of dollars in the hope of developing a naval facility in a strategic location. The port allows India to send food, aid and other commodities to the non -coastal Afghanistan and Central Asia across Iran, bypassing Pakistan, Meririan New Delhi.

India has obtained a waiver of sanctions from the United States during the first Trump administration to work related to Chabahar.

But in a presidential note of the national security signed by Trump on February 4, the US Secretary of State was asked to “amend or cancel concessions on the sanctions, especially those that provide Iran any degree of economic or financial relief, including those related to the Iranian port project.”

“Trump’s policy can become Iran’s flash point in the relationship of the United States and India can have a harmful impact,” Kogman told Al -Jazeera, adding that Trump’s position is “the maximum position towards Iran,” providing an accurate diplomatic situation for India.

“Bonhomie” and friction

Another relations disease – such as the allegations of American prosecutors that the espionage agency in India tried to assassinate an American citizen, the Sikhs. Gurpatwant Singh Pan; Or the US accusation list of billionaire Gotam Adwani due to bribery fees – It will continue in light of bilateral relations, as noted by Kojman.

“These issues will not necessarily appear in the near future, or at this meeting, but they will not go anytime soon,” said Kojman. “Given Trump’s maximum position on the definitions, he will try to do everything to motivate and reduce customs tariffs.”

Indian diplomats and international foreign policy experts have said that the famous “Promis” equation of Trump provides India with an advantage on the table with other countries.

However, it does not necessarily translate into a “better deal”.

“The good equation can make India a faster meeting or confrontation with Trump, not a deal,” he said, adding that New Delhi needs to be prepared to deal with friction. “It will be a mistake for India, or any country, focus a lot on a personal relationship with Trump and neglecting the presence of many other inputs in the process of making US foreign policies, including Congress.”

https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/RTS18QSB-1.jpg?resize=1920%2C1440

2025-02-13 03:34:00

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