It is Smoot-Hawley again! At least, through the accounts of this reporter, the sweeping tariff system that revealed President Trump after the market was listed on April 2 literally, America’s duties on imports to almost the same level in which the legislation was largely raised at the beginning of the great depression.

The highly protected SMOOOT-HWLEY law is blaming to deepen and prolong the worst chapter in American economic history. In a 1993 discussion with independent presidential candidate Ross Beirut Ali Larry King Live, Then the Vice President and Free Trade defender Al -Gore brought an ancient image of a member of the Senate, and they mocked a catastrophic political recipe “it seemed reasonable at that time.” In fact, for the general public and a wide range of trade experts, walking on the Smoot-Hawley road is the economic equivalent of shooting yourself in the foot.

Trump’s announcement contained a big surprise. The first: The definitions are much higher and more comprehensive than the investors and companies expected, based on the continuous changing reflections of the president, and sometimes, contemplate the previous days and weeks. Second, the “revenge” definitions were generally giant and do not bear any relationship with the numerical duties that the targeted countries impose on the United States, for example, the European Union slapped an average of 2.7 % on our goods, according to the World Trade Organization. However, Trump accumulates through the council’s tariff by 20 % on the bloc 27.

What explains the gap? The president believes that society really receives our sources by 39 % through indirect commercial barriers that include road barriers such as shares, technical standards, government purchasing policies and currency manipulation. The president imposes a penalty less than 19 points, which is supposed to be the European Union, which is supposed to show the United States to make Trump’s claim that it is unnecessarily “gentle” for our commercial partners.

It was just released 2025 Report of commercial estimate on foreign trade barriers It was collected by the American Trade Representative Office details These alleged restrictions for many countries. However, the administration did not reveal how it reaches the precise weight of all indirect barriers, which reaches 52 % for India and 67 % for China, and many actual rupee complications or the yuan tariff they collect. It is the management partner, through the partner’s appreciation of the non -high walls that mostly explain the reason for the highly shocked prices.

The main number is the average of Trump tariffs in all American imports, which is large

The two ideas and Wall Street analysts rush to determine the average total rate, and therefore the total dollar fee, the plan will be on our imports. It is also the number that American consumers will pay up to high taxes if the importers already passed all high -rate fees, specifically what happened when Trump made great duties on the likes of steel and aluminum in his first term. Therefore, this writer calculated these numbers based on the percentage of the tariff for each country and the European Union, and the dollars in the exports they sent in the United States in 2025. The most numerical exercise has proven the most responses to his head in several decades as a correspondent.

Trump struck all the 12 largest exporters to the United States with a tariff of at least 20 %. China got the most difficult punch by 54 %, followed by Vietnam (46 %), Thailand (36 %), Taiwan (32 %), Switzerland (31 %), India (26 %) Japan (24 %), Mexico and Canada (25 % each), South Korea (25 %), Malaysia (24 %), and the European Union (20 %). Indonesia ranked fourteenth 32 %. Most of the other 150 countries are included in the list of the “Global” tariff system by 10 %, including Singapore and Brazil, which sits in the thirteenth and fourteenth place in a row in export sizes to the United States.

The 13 supposed actors, which are greatly punished among the largest fifteen exporters, amounted to $ 2.92 trillion of foreign goods sold in America last year. This is more than 70 % of a total of $ 4.11 trillion. Through my accounts, this group will face alone, based on last year’s numbers, about $ 814 billion in annual duties, or an average rate of 28 %. The remaining countries are generally subject to 10 % of duties in the rest of the rest of $ 1.2 billion, or 120 billion dollars. Therefore, the new tariff bill will reach about 932 billion dollars ($ 814 billion for the largest exporters in addition to 120 billion dollars for the generally smaller countries by 10 %). This is the average duty of import of 22.7 %.

How to compare Trump’s tariff with SMOOT-HWLY

In June 1930, just eight months after the collapse of the historic securities market, which represents the beginning of the Great Depression, the age of Congress is the SMOOT-Hawley tariff law, which was defended by Senator Ridot (R-Utah) and actor Willis Holie (R-ERE). The nation has already turned into protectionism, especially the protection of farmers and industrial workers, eight years ago when the Fordney-Mobber bill has raised the definitions significantly, from individual numbers to 13.5 % on average, where they were raised before noon. The new law, designed to double the protection of agricultural workers and people who are heading to the likes of steel and cars, raised hypothesis duties for more than 50 % on many products. However, about two -thirds of American imports remained free from customs tariffs, and thus the average rate increased much lower, by 6.3 points to less than 20 %.

This is just less than 22 % or 23 %. Get Trump’s plan. This is amazing in itself. But the most surprising ready -made meals is that the Trump scheme will arouse a tariff today from the current 3 % About 20 points, or seven times! This is three times the jump under SMOOT-HWLY.

In the three-year-old SMOOT-HWLY years, US imports fell by two-thirds of two-thirds, and bombed with great revenge on countries such as Germany, the United Kingdom and Canada, our sales abroad decreased by a similar rate. According to most economists, Trump’s tariff is likely to launch a sharp decrease in what we buy from foreigners and what our producers sell abroad, and in the coming years, and if the contraction in our global commercial activity proves that even a small part of the catastrophic collapse after nonsense, this is bad news. In the estimates that were published before Trump’s announcement on April 2, the Non -Party Tax Corporation considered that the new duties will limit the growth of GDP by 0.4 % annually in the long run. This flying about a quarter of the expansion 2 % or the lowest CBO projects in the coming years. These expectations were based on the new definitions of about half a trillion Trump dollars. Simply put, Trump shook America by targeting Everything Great, this means at least 10 %, and most exports are super.

Not all distinguished experts believe that SMOOOT-HWLY led to great depression. The Nobel Prize-winning Milton Friedman attributed the collapse in the thirties of the twentieth century to excessive monetary policy, and SMOOOT-HWLY was considered a simple factor. But the increase in the customs tariff that represents the complications of those that were almost a century ago, was announced as a way to prosperity, and this at least proved to be negative, not encouraging. SMOOOT-HWLYY SAGA has an interesting code that includes Bill sponsors. In the 1932 elections, Hawly lost the preliminary elections, SMOOT won wax in the general elections, and Republicans threw 11 seats in one of the worst rings in the annual elections in the Senate.

To date, the markets hate Trump’s plan. We’ll soon see whether the voters follow his example.

This story was originally shown on Fortune.com

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2025-04-03 19:07:00